在过去几年的任何时候，差异在联邦储备政策制定者中爆发了。鉴于目前的阶段经济周期, the discord is not surprising.
分析师表示，随着珍妮特·耶勒主席享有足够的支持，不太可能影响美联储的货币政策，特别是来自联邦公开市场委员会成员的支持 - 特别是从州长委员会的内核 - 来了解。椅子似乎渴望摆脱零界限，周三由其国会证词评判。12月徒步旅行是一种“现场可能性”，如果经济数据仍然强劲，她告诉众议院金融服务委员会。随着市场价格在12月徒步旅行的比较甚至可能的情况下，股票和债券下降，而美元升级。
“这确实感觉比现在更加激烈，而不是通常是好理由，并出于充分的理由，”这位前美联储经济学家David Stockton说，这是华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所的高级研究员。“何时何时追求第一次收紧。你有多少信心，通货膨胀会恢复目标？“
The Fed’s federal funds rate target has stood at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. The Fed announced an inflation target of 2 percent in 2012. But its favored inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, has stayed below that level for most of the time since then; it climbed just 0.2 percent in the 12 months through September.
The discord runs in several directions. On the hawkish side, Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker has dissented at the past two FOMC meetings, arguing that the central bank should have raised rates in September and October. In January, Lacker loses his voting status on the FOMC, but James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, and Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, rotate in. All three are mild hawks, and they could dissent if the Fed continues to refrain from increasing rates.
董事会成员，董事会成员和丹尼尔·塔鲁洛上个月表示，通货膨胀尚未足够强大，以证明涨幅率，似乎与Yellen的9月份声明相矛盾，即今年的FOMC上大多数人预计将开始筹集利率。然而，猜测似乎在周三在法兰克福欧洲央行的会议上展示了她的立场，呼吁美国经济“鼓励”，但宣传对美元实力的负面影响的担忧。
早些时候，八月介于两者之间开放Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer纽约州主席威廉·德利威廉·德德利威廉德利。首先，达德利表示，金融市场的波动和全球经济的麻烦使“在9月份开始规范化进程的决定”似乎对我来说似乎不太引人注目，而不是几周前。“然而，同月后，费舍说有“有充分的理由相信通胀将随着持有通货膨胀的势力进一步消散而走高。”
Of all the disagreements, the one between Fischer and Dudley is potentially the most damaging. According to former Fed officials, it is the troika of those two and Yellen that really establishes Fed policy. “It was truly remarkable that the two vice chairs disagreed in public just a couple of weeks before an FOMC meeting,” says Andrew Levin, a former Fed economist who now is a professor at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. “As chair Yellen noted at her press conference, this was an unfortunate state of affairs.”
It doesn’t appear that Fischer and Dudley are too far apart, though. “They aren’t exactly on the same page, but they are close enough that they can be lumped [with Yellen] into a move to raise rates in December, unless the economic data between now and then prove to be weak,” says Stephen Oliner, a former Fed economist who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
Indeed, Dudley suggested as much on Wednesday, saying he agreed with Yellen that a rate hike is possible in December but adding, “Let’s see what the data shows.” In a speech of his own, Fischer didn’t comment directly on the timing of rate hikes but said inflation was “not that far” from the Fed’s 2 percent target.
As for the extreme hawks and doves, their views won’t affect policy much, the ex–Fed officials agree. “The hawks don’t have a lot of influence, especially the most hawkish,” Oliner says. “Lacker is a serial dissenter; so was [former Philadelphia Fed president] Charles Plosser. George is in the same camp. They’re loud, but in terms of moving a Fed policy, they’re a big fat zero.” Other than the New York Fed president, regional Fed chiefs rarely have great influence.
Oliner says it’s unlikely in any case that Brainard and Tarullo would dissent from a decision to boost rates in December. “There are a wide range of views at the FOMC that get smooshed into the statement,” he says. Board members, unlike regional Fed presidents, can’t easily dissent. “They’re essentially Yellen’s employees,” Oliner says. “They may get bones thrown to them in the statement, but they would express their dissent in the meeting,” rather than through their votes.
Most of the analysts believe the Fed will likely lift rates in December if payroll reports remain strong and inflation shows any sign of climbing. Still, “the disagreements within are genuine and analytical,” Stockton says. “It has been unusual for board members to speak so forcefully, but it indicates they want their case to be heard.”
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