作为2016年的方法，有迹象表明，美国房主从2008年 - 09年的金融危机中恢复了真正恢复。那些陷入困境的人已经改进，新买家正在进入市场。对于抵押贷款投资者来说，长期恢复是一种简单的钱来的来源，但要保持收益率，他们现在转向非资格化贷款。
“In 2010 if you invested with a structured credit manager who was investing in mortgages, that bet was guaranteed to provide positive returns because of the amount of beta in the recovery trade, but that trade is over now,” says Greg Parsons, CEO of New York–based Semper Capital Management, a $1.1 billion specialist in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
根据“国家拖欠调查”，美国抵押贷款截止日期拖延跌至预定水平，于11月17日由华盛顿的抵押贷款银行公司协会发布。在第三季度结束时，抵押贷款的拖欠率为4单位的住宅物业均下降到季节性调整后的4.99％的所有贷款 - 自2007年第一季度以来最低。同时，止赎开始率hasn’t been lower since the second quarter of 2005. These numbers show that there isn’t much left to recover in the recovery trade, so investors will need to shift their focus to new mortgages.
Parsons says nonqualified mortgages — loans for first-time buyers that banks and other traditional lenders can’t or won’t service — are the next chapter for investors. But they and borrowers will have to rethink what financing looks like, he notes.
There appears to be plenty of opportunity. A report last year by Deutsche Bank analysts Richard Mele and Ying Shen put the size of the U.S. nonqualified mortgage market at roughly $50 billion. The Deutsche report also shows that as demand for such mortgages increases and lending formulas evolve, the nonqualified marketplace could grow to as much as $400 billion.
现在，最潜在的非资金化贷款候选人是超高净值的个人，他们需要昂贵的房屋巨额抵押贷款。但不合格的借款人也可以自雇，在委员会工作或最近修复了学分。
来自华盛顿的智库的新数据城市研究所show that even with traditional lenders finding it harder to extend credit, liquidity remains at the prebubble levels of the early 2000s. This means that the overall market is still healthy, as housing sees robust demand. Private capital is increasingly responsible for maintaining that liquidity.
GapStow Capital Partners., a $1 billion credit investment firm based in New York, works with a slate of money managers to form funds or originate loans for nonqualified mortgages, which include structures such as balloon mortgages and interest-only loans.
在许多信贷公司中不容易发现不合格的抵押贷款需要某种专业知识。要投资这些贷款，管理人员必须将自己的管道建立在抵押贷款经纪人，源自仓库，并证实贷款。就其部分而言，GapStow投资于其附属管理人员创造的资金的有限合伙人，有时在贷款中。
“The structures are changing,” says Christopher Acito, Gapstow’s founder, CEO and CIO. “Not everything is in a fund format anymore.” Other players in the space include New York–based Blackstone Group and Los Angeles–headquartered Oaktree Capital Management.
Semper’s Parsons compares the evolution of the nonqualified market to the dynamic between high-yield and investment-grade bonds. “This is going to be an interesting opportunity set as private capital steps in,” he says. “Once these firms start reaping the rewards of the nonqualified mortgages, I find it hard to believe that the banks aren’t going to find some way to get back in.”
SEMPLES的4.3亿美元的MBS总回报基金同比增长3.9％至今。目前，近70％的基金资产分配给非经纪抵押贷款支持证券，该证券占70％以上的回报。
Parsons cites new financing structures like peer-to-peer mortgage lending as one way that individuals who need a nonqualified mortgage have been able to find a loan. For example, Boston area–based peer-to-peer lender National Family Mortgage has funded more than $350 million in mortgage loans between family members since 2012, according to the firm’s web site.
Nonbank lending platforms like Prosper Funding and loanDepot are also financing mortgages by pairing lenders and borrowers. Those transactions can be peer-to-peer or involve hedge funds and banks. As of September, Foothill Ranch, California–based loanDepot financed a total of $20.9 billion worth of mortgages, according to news and data provider内部抵押贷款金融.
非金属化空间的其他部分是小说：像Gapstow工作的管理人员正在支持贷款，更像是银行将提供的东西。这样的贷款和来自LoanePoT这样的平台的贷款最终可以在证券化篮中最终得到额定的代理支持抵押贷款。
A Goldman Sachs Group report this March suggested that platforms such as National Family Mortgage and loanDepot, hedge fund lenders and other so-called shadow banks operating in the consumer debt market could make $11 billion in profits that banks otherwise would have on traditional lending fees over the next five years. And that’s before the potential investment loss when investors start buying baskets of securitized loans offered by hedge funds or putting their own capital to work with peer-to-peer lending services.
对于investors, all of this activity means more options to participate in the mortgage market, but those investments will be different from traditional home loans and backed by a more diverse group of financial firms. Gapstow’s Acito and Semper’s Parsons reckon that to succeed, participants will have to understand the credit markets at a granular level or work with a manager that does. “Investors in this market are going to be best served by finding managers that can do their own credit work,” Parsons says. “The barriers to entry going forward are going to be complex and require a lot of analytics.”
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