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中国对证券行业的打击正在摇晃信心

顶级经纪主管的消失,推定的镇压主题,摇响市场和粉丝对政治动机担忧。

国泰君安国际控股执行董事长最近消失is sending a chill across Hong Kong’s financial district, fueling worries that President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on alleged abuses in the securities industry is turning into a campaign against political rivals.

根据他办公室的一份声明,从11月18日起,凭借出于11月18日以来,凭借起15年以上的港口的近海公安有限公司的高级行政。高管不确定他的下落,但根据中国官方新华社的11月24日的报告,政府调查员一直在探讨国泰君安和海通证券的上海总部,也是中国领先的经纪房屋。行业的内部人士表示,随着金融行业探针的一部分,亿米正在举行询问的机会。

Chinese authorities began cracking down on so-called malicious short selling and insider trading following this summer’s brutal stock market correction, which saw the mainland market plunge an unprecedented 40 percent between early June and late August and prompted Beijing to spend close to $300 billion to shore up prices.

In August investigators from the Communist Party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection detained several senior executives of Beijing-based CITIC Securities Co., China’s largest brokerage house. Overall, investigators have detained more than a dozen bankers — and even several senior officials of the China Securities Regulatory Commission — since launching the crackdown.

“When the market began to crash, there was a reflexive reaction to go after those were who responsible for it,” says Victor Shih, an associate professor of political economy at the University of California, San Diego, and an expert on China’s financial industry. “In reality, lax regulation and political pressure from the top were the main culprits. I am sure some people used this crackdown to settle political or even personal scores. The problem is that people will start to accuse each other, which can unsettle the market for quite some time.”

Although stock prices have recovered somewhat since August, the apparent widening of the financial industry investigations rattled the market last week. The Shanghai Composite index sank 5.5 percent on November 27, with a gauge of volatility surging from the lowest level since March. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index slid 2.5 percent on Friday in Hong Kong, whereas the Hang Seng index retreated 1.9 percent. The markets recovered slightly early this week.

11月20日监管机构重新开放了初始公开产品的市场,该产品于7月初暂停,以帮助稳定的股票价格。

基于香港,YIM在当地证券行业进行了很高的形象。他经常谈到媒体担任香港中国证券协会董事长。他还是中国证券监督管理委员会副主席姚刚的前助理,直到他于11月13日被捕,作为行业镇压,监督初始公开募股的一部分。在十年前加入监管机构之前,姚明在上海作为投资银行家提供各种角色,包括1999年至2002年国泰君安证券的首席执行官。

Yim was taken by Chinese authorities for investigation in connection with Yao’s case, Chinese Internet portal Sohu.com reported, citing an unidentified individual in Hong Kong’s financial industry.

1.96亿美元的投行业务收入this year as of November 11, Guotai Junan ranked third among China’s brokers, according to research firm Dealogic, behind CITIC Securities and China Securities Co.

这financial crackdown is part of the larger campaign by President Xi to root out corruption, says Andrew Collier, managing director and founder of Orient Capital Research, a Hong Kong–based independent research firm. “Certainly, it has been widely accepted that new IPO listings and other share dealings often lead to big monetary gains for insiders,” Collier says.

但是,如果确认,凭登被逮捕也会携带政治泛滥,煤炭争夺。众所周知,国泰君安的顶级高管将近于助攻前总统江泽民那whose power base is in Shanghai and who once served as the city’s party chief. According to several sources close to the party, Xi may be using the anticorruption campaign to challenge rival power centers, chief among them to the so-called Shanghai faction that Jiang heads. The disappearance of Yim and Yao’s arrest “look like an anti–Shanghai faction move,” says Collier, who served as president of the Bank of China’s operations in the U.S. from 2009 to 2011. “The Guotai arrests were shocking, as they seemed so clearly Shanghai-related.”

这arrest of top bankers from CITIC Securities — including president Cheng Boming, operations management head Yu Xinli and Wang Jinling, the vice director of information technology — may be an indirect attack on CITIC Securities’ chairman, Wang Dongming, who remains highly influential at the brokerage house, sources say. As the son of Wang Bingnan, a senior aide to former premier Zhou Enlai, Wang is known as a “princeling,” or son of a past party leader.

“这里的政治逻辑可能是在某种程度上纪律界定,”Shih说。“也许普林林已经相信他们在法律之上。”

谢主席本人是一个普林。他的父亲西仲勋是一个前助军普拉最重要的领导者邓小平,并在20世纪80年代初推出了深圳经济区推出的宗旨。然而,分析师表示,XI越来越多地利用他的反腐败运动来沉默是党内的竞争对手。

无论动机如何,北京在急剧纠正后在市场上积极干预,随后的逮捕导致投资者之间的疑虑。“在撞车祸害中,股票市场的大规模干预是改革的严重挫折,”Shih说。“维修需要数年时间。自行重新启动IPO无法赢得投资者的信任,他们想知道政府何时会发出另一个订单抵销股票销售。相反,需要解决可靠的机构机制。“

Follow Allen Cheng on Twitter at@ Acheng87