Economics & Strategy – Fixed-Income Strategy: 2013 First

大卫·胡安 & team

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

"They are really well informed, and their research includes both the political and the financial."

Debuting in first place is the Bank of America Merrill Lynch team directed by大卫·胡安; this squad also takes top honors in Economics. The nine analysts cover the region from offices in Russia, South Africa and the U.K. “They are very prolific and cover virtually every market we invest in,” applauds one buy-side backer. The team believes that a rise in U.S. equities, a subsequently stronger dollar and higher U.S. interest rates, will act as headwinds for many of the currencies of emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Therefore, the economists are urging clients either to go long against the dollar or to underweight EMEA currencies relative to those of Asia and Latin America. Also, in terms of debt, they favor such countries as Russia and Poland, where “we think there’s more room for central banks to cut interest rates than the market currently expects,” the 36-year-old explains. Hauner joined Bank of America Merrill Lynch in 2008 from the International Monetary Fund in Washington; he holds a master’s degree in international policy studies from California’s Stanford University and a doctorate in economics from the University of Vienna. —Carolyn Koo