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三重威胁考验巴西顶级投资者
Brazilian money managers face a perfect storm of slow growth, high rates and political turmoil. Firms like BTG Pactual Asset Management and Credit Suisse Hedging–Griffo Asset Management aim to not only weather it — but thrive, as well.
巴西市场在过去十年中创造了一些世界上最好的回报，但最近几个月受到了三重打击。美国经济持续低迷，一季度仅较上年同期增长1.9%，令一度高歌猛进的股市陷入低迷。自从巴西中央银行（Banco Central do Brasil）在4月和5月将主要政策利率上调75个基点至8%，以应对不断上升的通胀以来，利率一直在攀升。而似乎市场需要更多的坏消息，里约热内卢和圣保罗反对公车涨价的示威游行已经演变成一场全国性的抗议运动，抗议腐败和在2014年世界杯和2016年夏季奥运会上的巨额开支，引发了人们对该国政治稳定的质疑。
“The Brazilian government is in a very tough spot, dealing with two large sources of pressure that could ultimately demand very different styles of reaction,” says Marcelo Salomon, co-head of Latin America economics and strategy at Barclays in New York. “On one side there is social unrest demanding better use of public money. On the other, Brazilian financial asset prices are in a tailspin that we believe has been amplified by the social unrest, though it has its roots in the lack of fiscal control that has put Brazil on the route to sovereign credit downgrades.”
国内动荡,未来在全球investors have been fleeing emerging markets generally because of rising interest rates in the U.S., has hit Brazilian markets hard. The Ibovespa Index stood at 47,441.33 in late June, down 22.2 percent since the end of last year. The local yield curve has sold off massively, with one-year swap rates climbing by almost 200 basis points since the beginning of May to 9.89 percent at the end of June, according to Barclays. The real fell by 9.3 percent against the dollar in May and June.
The harsh environment presents a tough challenge for the Brazil 20, Institutional Investor’s exclusive annual ranking of the country’s largest money managers.
巴西国有银行（Banco do Brasil）旗下的BB Gestão de Recursos仍位居榜首，截至3月31日，该行管理的资产规模为2357亿美元。其次是巴西其他大银行的基金管理部门：ItaúUnibanco资产管理公司、Bradesco资产管理公司和Caixa Econômica Federal。许多大型基金经理的资产总额（以美元计）都出现了下滑，反映出截至3月31日的12个月里，雷亚尔兑美元汇率下跌了12.8%。
The combination of a weak stock market and low real returns on fixed-income funds has generated growing demand for multistrategy hedge funds and inflation-linked fixed-income products, money managers say. Firms with strong alternatives offerings perform particularly well in the Brazil 20. Those include BTG Pactual Asset Management, an arm of the Brazilian investment bank, which moves up one place in the ranking, to fifth, and has seen its assets rise by 19.5 percent since last year, to $61.9 billion; and Credit Suisse Hedging–Griffo Asset Management, which remains in eighth place, with $20.4 billion in assets, up 21.7 percent from a year earlier.总部位于里约的BTG Pactual asset Management首席策略师João Scandiuzzi表示：“去年的主题是利率下降，投资者考虑其他资产类别。”。“今年的利率走势与此相反，但我认为现在就明确投资者下一步的投资方向还为时过早。在过去的一年里，老练的投资者转向更专业、更具价值的基金，并变得比以前更机会主义。我看不到他们会很快放弃这种做法。”
业内高管表示，最近的波动也给积极的管理和良好的选股带来了溢价。例如，中国经济的放缓对大宗商品股产生了很大影响，大宗商品股在Ibovespa中占很大比例。
Three years ago it was enough for an investor to select a good industrial sector, says Allan Hadid, chief executive of BRZ Investimentos, a São Paulo–based manager with nearly 5 billion reais ($2.2 billion) under management. Now it is vital to choose the right company, he explains. “Although the Ibovespa is down and many sectors are down overall, there are still good stocks to be found,” he says.
Hadid points to Direcional Engenharia, a Brazilian building company that is 46.7 percent owned by the founding family. It saw its share price rise by 77 percent during the 12 months through May, while the market real estate index gained only 4.1 percent during the same period. BRZ Investimentos has had a 2 percent stake in Direcional since November 2012 and since April has had an independent member on the company’s board.
哈迪德也喜欢中情局。巴西最大的零售商Brasileira de Distribuição Grupo Pão de Açcar的股价在截至5月份的12个月中上涨了35.9%，超过了摩根士丹利资本国际巴西零售指数20.2%的涨幅。BRZ持有公司0.24%的股份，过去三年中，公司审计委员会有一名成员。
纽约梅隆投资管理公司（BNY Mellon investment Management）在力拓的子公司ARX Investmentos的高级投资策略师亚历山大戈拉（Alexander Gorra）表示：“投资者正转向了解自上而下和自下而上策略的经理。”。该公司在巴西20强中排名下滑一位，至第17位；其资产在过去一年中增长了2.4%，达到66亿美元。
“Investors have become much more discerning about performance,” Gorra says. “It’s very important that the manager has strong risk controls in place.”
基金经理们表示，寻求对冲通胀上升风险的客户对巴西房地产投资信托基金的兴趣与日俱增。高管们表示，在其它趋势中，机构投资者已从交易所交易基金和指数基金转向结构性信贷基金和价值股票基金，占该行业资产的40%左右。亚博赞助欧冠
The big question facing the industry is what will happen to international capital flows. The recent decline in the real has prompted some high-net-worth Brazilian investors to send money abroad, notably in the direction of U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS. That approach could grow, some managers believe.
“最近的事件尤其促使机构投资者加快海外投资计划，”汇丰亚博赞助欧冠银行全球资产管理（HSBC Global Asset Management）驻圣保罗首席执行官佩德罗•巴斯托斯（Pedro Bastos）表示。该公司以446亿美元的资产在巴西20强中排名第七。他补充说：“目前还没有重大进展，但我们可能会在未来看到。”。
巴西养老基金最多可以将其资产的20%投资于海外。大多数外国投资都是通过当地的一个包装基金（feeder）进行的。
同时，这也表明了最近的动荡，政府被迫撤销了一项关键的资本流动政策。今年6月，财政部取消了对流入固定收益市场的外国投资组合征收6%的税。政府在2011年征收了这项税，以遏制当时飙升的雷亚尔，官员们担心这会损害国家的竞争力。
ARX策略师Gorra表示：“取消固定收益的IOF税是个好消息。”。“资本在国际上存在竞争，因此税收一直是巴西的障碍。”
Managers aren’t predicting a sudden inflow of foreign money, though. From January through May portfolio inflows rose to $15 billion, from $6.3 billion a year earlier, according to the Brazilian central bank. The equity market took much of the increase, with inflows rising to $9.6 billion in the first five months of this year, from $2.8 billion a year earlier. But the market turmoil in June has prompted a sharp reversal. According to BRZ Investimentos, some 4 billion reais left Brazil for overseas markets between June 10 and 24.
“This is more related to the end of QE and what is happening to the U.S. Treasury market than the social unrest in Brazil,” says Hadid. “Brazil is well and truly caught up with what is happening in emerging markets throughout the world.”
巴西投资者多年来一直没有面临这种不确定性。中国吸引投资是因为它似乎是最具活力和政治稳定的新兴市场之一。波动性的回归将对巴西基金经理的聪明才智产生影响。• •