两年，现在正在进行三分之一，是提供阿尔法会议— co-hosted by Institutional Investor and CNBC — has brought together the finest financial minds to discuss the pressing issues of the day and share their acute understanding of the markets. Some, like欧米茄顾问创始人莱昂Cooperman, strike with remarkable accuracy. The soon-to-be-septuagenarian scored a perfect ten out often with his stock picks on last year’s Best Ideas panel.
其他人可以提醒我们，即使是经验丰富的资深人士，也可以提醒我们。
Sitting alongside Cooperman and other luminaries, James Chanos laid out his best idea for 2012: Shorting the stock of PC maker Hewlett-Packard Co.
That Chanos touted a short trade as his best idea should come as no real surprise. The name of his hedge fund firm,Kynikos, is Greek for cynic, and he was on the right side of one of the more newsworthy stock collapses in recent history — Enron. Chanos was one of the earliest traders to make sense of the Houston-based energy giant’s suspect accounting via mark-to-model pricing, and profited handsomely.
但是，现在，尽管一年只是一年，但似乎是Chanos对技术公司的看跌前景 - 在帕洛阿尔托一辆汽车车库中成立，一些叫硅谷的出生地 - 错过了马克。
Since Chanos took the Delivering Alpha stage and called HP “the ultimate value trap,” the company’s stock has jumped almost 30 percent, from $19.30 to about $25.
在可以说服分析师的数据中，在分析师的数据中，从价值的角度来说，股票的股权声称，惠普在其他未命名的科技公司中，惠普正在隐藏缺乏研究开发的开发支出收购广度。他说，过去四到五年的收入和现金流量在过去四年或五年里持平，而在同一时间框架期间，该公司在收购时花了370亿美元。
其中一个收购 - 英国软件制造商自治，惠普在2011年支付了超过100亿美元 - 被视为灾难。去年11月惠普宣布揭示揭示乌考基使用的可疑会计措施后的88亿美元的自治权。新闻将惠普的库存送到2012年11月20日11.71美元的多元较低的价格。
Less than six months after he made his pitch, Chanos looked to have scored a major winner, with a 65 percent drop in price in the shares of HP. But since then the stock has more than doubled to its present level — a price firmly above the $19.30 the day of Delivering Alpha 2012.
惠普在11月低位的几个月内的进步肯定会对Chanos感到震惊，但似乎并没有妨碍他的整体前景。在4月下旬的CNBC的“FAST MONEY：HAMPTIME REPORT”的外观期间，CHANOS承认他还在赌注中。“世俗的故事在这里没有改变，”他说。“逆风仍然面对他们的每一行。服务器仍然是电脑，记住。“
As a PC maker in a tablet world, HP will probably no longer看到它过去多年来的增长。前顾问首席执行官梅格·惠特曼with Bain & Co. and longtime CEO of eBay, who joined the company shortly after the Autonomy deal closed, has instead worked to minimize HP’s debt situation. In the second quarter earnings presentation on May 22, Whitman noted, “After returning more than a billion dollars to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in the quarter, we improved our operating company net debt position for the fifth successive quarter.” She went on to say that the company expected to be operating with net debt at levels prior to the Autonomy acquisition by the end of this fiscal year.
Revenues were down across the board, but cash flow from operations was up 44 percent from the same period in 2012. HP also announced a 10 percent increase in the next quarterly dividend, to 14.52 cents per share. These announcements continued to ease investors’ concerns despite the drops in revenue, and the stock rose another 17 percent.
The computer has changed drastically, and smartphones like Apple’s iPhone and those that use Google’s Android platform offer what are for all practical matters handheld computers. Tablets have swarmed the marketplace, with market research firm IDC predicting shipments to grow almost 60 percent in 2013, while PCs should see negative growth for a second straight year.
惠普能够避免卡在PC Slog中。It is a far cry from its all-time high price of $73, but investors, as seen through the steadily rising stock price, seem confident in Whitman’s ability to run the company. HP’s modest fortune coincides with the ongoing uncertainty at rival Dell. Stuck in a quagmire pitting Carl Icahn and Southeastern Asset Management against founder Michael Dell and Silver Lake Management in a fight for ownership of the tech company, Dell has painted an uncertain picture for investors, though not necessarily a messy one — its stock price is up more than 10 percent since last year’s conference, where Chanos mentioned it as a short trade as well.
In the meantime, Chanos will be back on July 17 at the Pierre Hotel in New York City for the third annual Delivering Alpha conference to seek redemption with his next big idea.
Hedge fund managers are a competitive bunch, so expect Chanos to come out swinging this year.