Lift on U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban Would Spur Downstream Development

在增加夸张的时代，页岩能量越来越多地忍受其炒作的能力。Development of technologies for hydraulic fracturing, more commonly known as fracking, is poised to make the U.S. the world’s largest oil producer by 2015, according to the International Energy Agency, which recently forecast that the daily domestic production of crude, condensates and natural-gas liquids will peak at 11.6 million barrels per day by 2020. This trend has triggered a flurry of investment in the sectors that handle the logistics required to get this new production to markets. The prospect of a glut of oil from shale deposits has also triggered a debate about whether the U.S. should export crude. After decades of worry about a dependence on foreign imports, now there is suddenly enough oil in the U.S. to overturn 40 years of policy orthodoxy in Washington.

Oil producers want an end to an existing ban on crude oil exports that has been in place since the oil supply shocks of the 1970s. Freedom to sell overseas would benefit any oil producer because having more potential buyers means a chance to sell to the highest bidder. But those with shale deposits in the interior of the country in particular would benefit because much of the existing refinery capacity in the U.S. was built to process domestic crude as well as the imports that were assumed to be necessary to balance supply and demand. What producers of shale oil have to offer is less desirable to domestic refiners. That hurts their prospects for profits.

But even if the supporting evidence these oil producers offer to Washington is backed by valid economics, oil dependence remains a political issue with national security implications. To millions of voters, energy independence means ending a reliance on imports and bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia. It seems unlikely that a nuanced argument about refinery capacities and the various grades of crude oil can stand up to a sound bite to rival “No foreign oil.” It’s also hard to imagine that many politicians would champion the cause on Capitol Hill, making the case to voters. The lobbying effort continues in Washington nonetheless, and should it prove successful, winners would include the Bakken’s biggest leaseholder and producer, Oklahoma City–based Continental Resources. Those who would potentially stand to lose include Californians, says Jonathan Chanis, an oil industry specialist; the managing member of Torrington, Connecticut–based New Tide Asset Management; and adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

“如果您提供国内卖家的选择，他们可以选择销售原油，他们会有更多的买家和实现的价格应该上涨，”Chanis说。“然而，加州可能存在负面影响。出口禁令经常略微降低加利福尼亚州的原油价格，因为阿拉斯加的生产基本上是俘虏的。“

但是，原油石油法律确实允许出口到加拿大。这一职位将加拿大炼油厂作为潜在市场，并提供比其他国际市场的运费远低于运输成本远远低于他们。

从目前的投资活动，能源生产商和服务的公司似乎并不似乎是美国法律的变化。投资者代替花费数十亿以改善所有地表运输模式，恢复旧炼油厂并向现有的能力增加。点的案例是美国管道网络，它以满体运行。目前，加拿大和美国在加拿大有26个新的管道项目，根据RBN Energy，休斯顿的咨询。管道经常由大师有限伙伴关系（MLP）建造和持有，这是一个受利于税收处理的所有权结构，但必须向投资者提供现金流，类似于房地产投资信托。MLP适用于管道，因为使用的使用是提供稳定的现金流量的长期合同。对于投资者来说，高收益率可以在低利率环境中具有吸引力。基于休斯顿的Buckeye Partners是一个在机构投资者中流行的MLP的示例。亚博赞助欧冠根据公共申请，加利福尼亚州公共雇员的退休系统（Calpers）是其主要持有人之一，并在第三季度提升其股份。

Railways are another possible avenue of investment should the crude oil ban be lifted. Producers forgo the stability of long-term obligations to supply a pipeline and pay more per barrel when shipping via rail, but they gain the ability to auction their output to the highest buyers on the spot market. For Texas crudes in the Eagle Ford shale play, Union Pacific has emerged as a major transportation option, with CalPERS and the New York State Common Retirement Fund counted among its major institutional owners. Railroads are also the best choice to move crude from the interior to refineries on the East and West coasts, as most of the country’s pipeline network is north-south oriented.

TheU.S. shipping industry is also enjoying a revival由于另一个组合,其中包括一个other law that crude exporters would like to see repealed. The Merchant Marine Act of 1920, commonly known as the Jones Act, requires any ship movements between domestic ports to use a U.S.-flagged ship built by a U.S.-owned company and crewed by U.S. citizens and permanent residents. These rules, when coupled with U.S. labor laws and environmental and other regulations, amount to a major cost when compared with international shipping options. Jones Act shipping is costlier still at the moment because demand has risen and the supply of suitable tankers and barges has not caught up. On the spot market as of December 9, in the international shipping market a medium-range tanker would cost $14,750 per day to charter, according to New York–based global ship broker Poten & Partners.

Jones Act船舶的市场过于不足，以提供完全的比较，但6月份触及了每天100,000美元的历史新高，为中档油轮容量不到一半的船舶，这是成本差异的指示。市场反应包括美国石油船的IPO，自纽约的替代投资公司于2006年以5亿美元购买了5亿美元以来，这是由Blackstone Group的控制。休斯顿 - 总部柯比公司经营着一支用于内陆的较小交通驳船运输。股权所有者包括State of Wisconsin Investment Boardand the New York State CRF, which according to public filings added to its holdings in the third quarter.

At the downstream level, the refining industry in the U.S. is essentially regional. West Coast refineries typically receive crude from Alaska’s North Slope. Those on the Gulf of Mexico buy imports as well as conventional crude, the blend of Texas and other U.S. crudes that make up the benchmark West Texas Intermediate. Refineries on the East Coast are historically the most dependent on imports and have until now been the least profitable. As of 2010 refineries were being closed or converted to storage terminals, but inexpensive shale oil has drawn new investment. Blackstone and the Washington–based private equity firm Carlyle Group have each bought an East Coast refinery.

Further investment in refinery capacity is more likely to come in the form of upgrading existing operations rather than creating major new ones — and is perhaps a better idea than exporting crude. “[The U.S. is] the Saudi Arabia of petroleum refining,” says Chanis. “The refining sector, especially on the Gulf Coast, is a hidden jewel in America’s economic recovery. We have a competitive advantage that is going to be very hard for other countries to beat because we have very competitively priced oil feedstock, and it is more expensive to build refineries outside the U.S.”