新兴市场如何构建经济改革

近年来，新兴市场各国的大部分肆无忌惮的热情消失了。经济增长率从2008年之前的高位跌幅近一半。虽然新兴市场股票从1999年至2009年的发达市场的表现优于293％，但它们的表现明显低36％ - 自2010年（见图1）。今年夏天的关键债务市场波动率暗示美国联邦储备委员会将逐渐变化其债券购买，对这些市场和经济的可持续性造成了额外的担忧。

资料来源：MSCI新兴市场US $总回报和MSCI世界US $总回报用作此计算的基准。

在过去的25年里，1994年1991年的主要危机 - 印度，1994年和1998年的俄罗斯和东南亚 - 开始了经济改革。财政管理的改进，提高生产力 - 加强政策和智慧的金融监管，使长期，广泛的增长和驱动的新兴市场向前推进。虽然可以使用新兴市场目前没有经历可比危机，但增长的重大放缓是足以推动急需的改革。但他们是什么？为了回答这个问题，我们需要首先检查新兴市场增长的因素。

新兴市场受益于三个主要的途中，这可能不会在同等程度上继续前进。

第一个很高，横向商品价格。经过多年的停滞，中国驱动的商品繁荣有助于拉丁美洲，俄罗斯和其他商品出口商的增长。从2003年到2011年，能源和金属价格增长三倍，农产品价格增长了50％。这种发展的主要影响包括允许新兴市场的国家增加公共支出，俄罗斯向上筹集公共支出每人9,000美元;巴西和智利等主要商品出口商建立储备阻尼波动，减少未来危机的风险。

The second major tailwind is growth in trade and economic openness. The ascension of China to the World Trade Organization in 2001 was a watershed moment for global trade. Low- and middle-income countries saw their share of global exports more than double, from 21 percent to 43 percent, between 1994 and 2008. During this time China and India had annual growth in exports of 18 percent and 14 percent, respectively. The next important phase of global trade, so-called South-South trade between emerging economies, is set to grow at a rate of more than 18 percent a year, further enhancing the importance of financial openness for these countries.

The third tailwind is financial openness and capital flows. From 2002 to 2012, capital flows into emerging economies increased dramatically, with cumulative net inflows to a set of major emerging-markets countries of more than $1.2 trillion. This boost ?was the result of financial liberalization and improved fiscal management in many economies, as well as a global search for yield during a period of persistently low interest rates in the developed world (see chart 2).

资料来源：美联储

最近,许多甚至所有这三个尾巴winds have stalled, if not outright reversed. Prices of key commodities, including gold, copper and oil, have stagnated because of slack demand as well as positive supply shocks, particularly in oil. The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth has collapsed from approximately two times to less than one times, similar to the less-open world of a few decades ago. Finally, on the capital flows front, we are seeing the unintended consequences of significant capital flows, such as credit expansion, and now the whispers of capital controls as central banks in emerging markets struggle to control monetary policy with such volatile flows. If capital controls are put back into place, that can even further disrupt markets.

鉴于政策前方的新兴市场存在的挑战，投资者应该关注哪些改革是什么？

首先是新兴市场经济体必须开始提高生产力 - 加强重新获得的政策 - 并迅速。由于两个原因，这一优先事项尤为重要。首先，许多大型新兴市场的人口股息在很大程度上运行了课程，使得生产率收益对于GDP持续增长更为重要。例如，中国的劳动力将在未来20年内减掉6700万名工人。

其次，商品出口商不能依赖于高商品价格前进的贸易收益。正如最近国际货币基金组织关于该专题的国际货币基金组织研究所概述的，新兴市场都有一系列公共政策。其中包括进一步的金融自由化，拆除农业补贴，减少贸易关税和开放边界。投资者将详细建议遵循这些方案的效力，结构和实施，因为新兴市场未来的未来增长取决于它们。

These countries also need to undertake reforms to promote domestic rebalancing. By and large, emerging markets have been following an investment-led approach toward growth. Developed economies have been pursuing a consumption-led model, which cannot continue because of high levels of indebtedness and an impending long deleveraging process. Managing this transition will be very important for emerging economies, which will need to improve the environment and incentives for higher consumption-led growth while still making capital investments (see chart 3).

资料来源：“全球经济的新道路，”朱敏，项目辛迪加，2013年1月21日

The third and perhaps most important reform issue concerns domestic savings pools. As charts 4 and 5 from a World Bank study indicate, under both “rapid” and “gradual” convergence scenarios between developing and high-income countries, emerging economies have much higher savings rates than developed economies; in 2017 they are forecast to constitute a larger percentage of global savings than developed economies. Currently, a large portion of those savings is in investments such as bank deposits, U.S. Treasuries and property. Once financial markets develop in these economies using these savings, we will see a dampening of emerging-markets volatility, which will be a boon for foreign and domestic investors alike.

资料来源：世界银行

资料来源：世界银行

There are recent signs of success, or at least what we at Investec feel are the correct first steps, in policy reform in key emerging markets. The news out of the Chinese plenum in November was positive: President Xi Jinping outlined the framework of a plan to move toward a more market-oriented economy. The policies of Raghuram Rajan, the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India, have put fiscal stability and financial liberalization at the top of the country’s agenda. Each country will have to deal with these challenges and reform agendas within their own contexts. As investors, we need to better incorporate them into our asset allocation models and decisions.

Rahm Emanuel.那mayor of Chicago and former chief of staff to President Barack Obama, once said, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.” Officials in major emerging economies would be smart to heed this advice.

aniket shah是一家投资专家，拥有投资投资研究所，一部分Investec资产管理。

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