2013年全美研究团队：半导体，第2号：Stacy Rasgon

Stacy Rasgon.火箭队从亚军到第二位。The Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst covers seven U.S. semiconductors names, earning kudos for “rightly distinguishing the prevailing (too-high) market-oriented cyclical argument and the long-term fundamental drivers, and sorting out ideas clearly,” as one supporter puts it. Rasgon, an All-America Research Team Rising Star in 2010 and 2011, readily acknowledges that he’s no bull. “Over the long term I have never been hugely positive on the group,” he says. “I do not believe the semis industry is ‘growthy’ anymore, but rather more [gross domestic product], or maybe GDP-plus, growth overlaid by large cyclicality, which would argue for lower rather than higher multiples.” He is negative on personal computer names, particularly microprocessor manufacturer Intel Corp. of Santa Clara, California — though not for the consensus reasons. The subsector is structurally challenged by limits to the number of transistors that can be placed on integrated circuits, Rasgon notes. However, “we do not believe that a slowdown here means the end of the industry, as people have been predicting for decades, but rather that the industry might find a path through by redirecting efforts from performance improvements to power efficiency,” he explains. “This shift has broad implications for winners and losers across the semiconductors and semi capital equipment spaces.” Investors certainly appreciate his analysis. “Stacy’s ‘Silicon Wars’ research on the seismic shifts on the horizon in semiconductors was the most forward-thinking and differentiated research we have seen in years,” reports one portfolio manager. —帕姆贝克