At the best of times, the mental gap between 19th Street, where policymakers debated global issues Thursday at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, and Capitol Hill, where U.S. lawmakers discuss more parochial matters, is much wider than the three miles that separate the two locations. But these are far from the best of times.
国际政策制定者和银行家在美国政治剧中令人沮丧的是，在美国政府关闭和镇上的债务上限。他们警告说，如果没有迅速解决，争执可能会引发全球经济衰退，永久损害美国的经济前货和美元的地位作为全球储备货币。
“美国经济外，美国经济外将存在非常负面的后果，”国际货币基金组织董事总经理克里斯汀拉加德（Christine Lagarde）在新闻发布会上开立年度会议。她在本周早些时候由基金的首席经济学家Olivier Blanchard呼应了评论，他警告说，如果奥巴马政府和国会未能提高美国债务上限，“现在恢复可能会转向经济衰退或更糟糕的事情。”（阅读更多： ”IMF的Lagarde敦促各国政府完成金融改革的工作“）
Talk of default by U.S. lawmakers “just plays into the hands of those who say we need an alternative reserve currency,” Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, told亚博赞助欧冠在面试中。“美国刚刚在脚下拍摄。”
Talk of a potential compromise that would raise the debt ceiling for six weeks to allow negotiations over a broader deficit-reduction package lifted spirits on Wall Street Thursday but failed to impress among the IMF crowd. One notable exchange took place during a panel discussion of global economic prospects involving senior U.S. and Chinese officials. Jason Furman, chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, used the forum to urge Congress to push the debt ceiling “as far out in the future as possible.” Yi Gang, the deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, the U.S.’s largest creditor, quickly responded, “I hope what Jason said is true.” Earlier this week, officials in Beijing called on Washington to protect China’s investments in U.S. Treasuries.
这不是第一个美国债务制度辩论或政府关闭，最初大多数国际官员都假定这次休息也会通过。但随着日子的继续，官员和银行家正在开始对美国的威胁更加认真，并开始违约行为规划。
Although the U.S. Treasury may be able to continue to service its debt without raising the ceiling — a point on which the administration and some Republican congressmen disagree — it would have to slash other spending by some 4 percent of gross domestic product, virtually overnight, to eliminate the deficit, says Angel Gurría, secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “Even without default, you would basically go into recession,” he predicts. The 34-nation OECD would also fall back into recession and emerging markets would experience “a sharp slowdown,” he adds.
A short-term debt ceiling extension may provide little relief, said Samir Assaf, head of global banking and markets and HSBC Holdings. “Everybody who has not worked on his contingency plan appropriately will do it seriously,” he toldII。除此之外，他补充说，这意味着介绍了为全球金融体系中担任抵押品的大量美元美元的美国国债和债券的潜在保证金要求。
周四早些时候,香港交易及结算所,operator of the city’s stock exchange, announced that it was increasing its haircut on Treasuries of less than one year maturity that are used as collateral to 3 percent from 1 percent.
However it is resolved, the escalating political crisis has already cast doubt on U.S. leadership, Nigeria’s Sanusi asserted: “Does America have the political will to do what needs to be done?”
像Sanusi，Assaf说，美国债务支出可能会侵蚀美元的地位，加快转向多储备货币世界。“Anybody who’s sitting outside of the U.S. is thinking, ‘How can we get out of this trap?’ We can’t continue to rely on the U.S. dollar as a transaction currency and a reserve currency while no one has a grip on it,” he said.
Will the growing chorus of international criticism influence U.S. lawmakers? Probably not, say two U.S. academics. In a华盛顿邮报柱子outlining the findings of a soon-to-be-published paper, Martin Edwards and Stephanie Senger of Seton Hall University found that the IMF’s widely publicized surveillance report on the U.S. economy, which came out just before the last debt-ceiling standoff in 2011 and called for serious medium-term reforms of entitlement programs and other spending, was almost universally ignored by Congress and the White House.
“Our findings suggest that the IMF has much to learn about how to better make its messages heard,” they wrote.
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