这2013 All-America Rising Stars of Wall Street

Cameron Horwitz has been a senior equity researcher for nearly two years — and he’s only 28. After earning a bachelor’s degree in accounting and finance at the University of Miami, Horwitz worked as an associate analyst covering oil and gas exploration and production companies at several firms, including Canaccord Genuity and SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, until February 2012. That’s when U.S. Capital Advisors offered him the chance to direct the Houston-based outfit’s E&P coverage. Horwitz jumped at the chance.

“作为你在支持角色的助理方面，”他观察。“我觉得我有经验，我看到了游戏如何工作，成功在角色中的成功是什么 - 我希望自己拍摄自己。”

It looks like he made the right move. Each year when亚博赞助欧冠asks buy-siders to indicate who among their sell-side counterparts warrants inclusion in the全美研究团队,我们也要求他们名字的Wal的新星l Street Research — analysts who have been publishing research for less than three years but have already attracted the interest of money managers — and Horwitz is among this year’s honorees. The Houston-based analyst acknowledges that the role of lead researcher is very different from that of an associate. “You get so enamored with working in your models and understanding the numbers, understanding the assets, but it’s a very fine balance because you have to sell those ideas,” he explains. “You have to strike a balance between that sales ability and the ability to understand the numbers.”

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That’s not always easy to do, according to Stephen Penwell, Morgan Stanley’s New York–based director of equity research for the Americas. For a third year running, no firm has been home to more Rising Stars than his. Five Morgan Stanley analysts win Rising Star status this year. That’s down from eight last year and one more than the total for each of the three firms that tie for second place: Barclays, Citi and RBC Capital Markets.

Penwell describes the qualities he looks for when searching for new analysts: “Very intelligent people who are strong communicators. People who really want to dig, who know how to dig. Fast thinkers who can connect the dots quickly. People who are competitive, in the context of a team sport.”

One such person is Penwell’s colleague Jennifer Swanson Lowe, now making her second appearance as a Rising Star in Software.

“你可以做一个数学肛门ysis, and you can come up with a point value for something, but ultimately behavior drives markets, changes in sentiment drive markets,” the 36-year-old says. “It’s a business where you need to understand what people are talking about, what the controversies are, what the debates are and how you can add value around those discussions.”

Lowe进入了销售方的行业，作为一名初级分析师覆盖雷蒙德詹姆斯＆伙伴，吹笛者jaffray＆Co.和Sanford C.Bernstein＆Co.的软件和技术股，然后搬到了众议院报告技术股票Alliancebernstein。她于2009年转回了与亚当霍尔特 - 全美研究团队（和三次冠军）的五次成员 - 次年推出了自己的覆盖范围。在今年早些时候从摩根斯坦利出发后，她扩大了她的宇宙。（他搬到了一家旧金山的Qatalyst Partners，专注于科技公司。）

没有一个，而不是两个市场危机 - 2000年 - 01年的DOT-COM泡沫和2008年全球崩溃的爆发已经学会了保持大局的观点。“If a company is a good story and it’s really inexpensive because of certain market conditions, you can’t focus on the short term and say, ‘The market’s down 50 percent, the stock’s down 50 percent, so I just can’t like it anymore,’” she contends. “You really have to take a step back with a medium- or longer-term outlook and ask, ‘What are the ideas that really have staying power and can come back over time?’”

劳强调的一个新兴主题是重击opment of software as a service, “as spending migrates away from infrastructure software, from hardware and other areas of technology,” she reports. The first wave was the introduction of applications — for example, customer relationship management tools — that require little customization. More recently, with the growing prominence of such companies as ServiceNow, an information technology management software developer headquartered in San Diego, and Pleasanton, California–based Workday, which provides big-data analytics and financial management services, “you’re starting to see the next class of applications moving into the cloud,” she says. “We’ve been paying attention to how quickly and whether some of these back-office-type applications are able to make the leap into the cloud. We think they will, and that’s potentially a very large opportunity over time.”

这most recent financial crisis has also taught Horwitz a thing or two. When he began covering E&P stocks in 2007, West Texas Intermediate crude was roughly $150 a barrel. The following year the price had plummeted to $30.

“When you’re in a more robust commodities price environment, the market is more likely to ascribe credit to things in a net-asset-value context,” he maintains. “But on the downside the market view can quickly flip, and you have more emphasis placed on cash flow multiples and balance sheet multiples. It certainly allowed me to have a better understanding of how the market is thinking of things in different parts of the cycle.”

In addition, that spectacular reversal “taught me a quick lesson on how capital-intensive this industry is — that if commodities prices turn against you and you’ve extended yourself beyond your means, how quickly that can have a negative effect on your balance sheet,” he notes. “That’s certainly affected how we’ve recommended stocks.”

Among the names Horwitz is currently urging clients to buy are Denver’s Cimarex Energy Co., Energen Corp. of Birmingham, Alabama, and Irving, Texas–based Pioneer Natural Resources Co., all of which should benefit from the production growth outlooks for the North American Permian Basin, a vast reserve that stretches from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas.

他还喜欢Gulfport Energy Corp.这是因为它暴露于美国东北部和加拿大东南部的Utica Shale Chemation。俄克拉荷马城的衣服井中的井有井，“在马塞尔斯在马塞勒斯钻井的一些最好的井上是可比的 - 这是该国天然气井的一些最好的生产力，可能在世界上。“

这Great Recession has also informed the work of William Slabaugh, a Rising Star in the Restaurants sector. What the market has endured since 2008 “has made me more skeptical of what I hear from management teams,” the Stephens analyst asserts. “More important, it also made me more aware of relative valuations and the importance of a business’s true free-cash-flow generation capabilities, which I think are often forgotten in the restaurant industry.”

由于环境高失业率和贫血真正的国内产品增长，基于阿肯色州的研究人员表示，“很多良好的餐厅企业与强大的品牌和保证金概况被写入，例如Krispy Kreme甜甜圈和Sonic Corp。这让我有机会在积极的方面变得更多的声音。“

这29-year-old has been bullish on those two companies — headquartered in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and Oklahoma City, respectively — for more than a year.

Slabaugh describes Krispy Kreme as “a broken company, but not a broken brand.” Previous management teams “had done a lot of things that had really hurt what was going on within the company,” he says. In 2008 board chairman James Morgan was appointed CEO, with a mandate to pull the chain store operator back on track. “A lot of things the new management team was doing were moving the company in the right direction,” the analyst says. “Now they have accelerating sales growth and accelerating unit growth.”

He believes Sonic presents a similar turnaround opportunity. The company, which operates more than 3,500 drive-through fast-food restaurants, is “an undervalued franchise that’s accelerating its sales growth.”

A graduate of the University of Arkansas with a double major in international business and Spanish, Slabaugh began his career in Stephens’ corporate finance department before moving into equity research. That firm, like many others, prefers to promote from within rather than pluck established analysts from competitors.

Michael Eastwood, director of Americas equity research at Jefferies in New York, shares that philosophy. “It’s really refreshing to hire associates because it’s all about talent rather than experience, and it’s good to be able to craft the sort of associate you want,” he explains. “It’s easier to take an associate, give them coverage under the umbrella of a successful analyst, carve out a relevant space, allow them to cover securities within a successful franchise and then, in due course, you’ll find them a greater opportunity.”

That approach also involves less uncertainty. “You’re choosing from a group of people you know,” Eastwood adds. “When we go outside to hire somebody, we don’t actually know them. We are taking views from clients, from consultants, from people that we know within the industry — but it’s a higher-risk strategy.”

Piper Jaffray's Erinn Murphy是服装，鞋类和纺织品的升级明星，也开始成为大学的助理。“在理解市场如何运作和了解销售方面的作品方面，我可能会把自己变得绿色，”这位31岁的说法是如何。“我会称之为学习曲线陡峭。对我而言，没有来自金融背景，它被火的洗礼。“

Over the next four years, the Houston-based analyst learned how to analyze balance sheets, conduct channel checks and observe how “everything fits together.” Then she took an unusual career detour, accepting a position as a natural-gas negotiator with Exxon Mobil Corp., a job that involved buying and selling gas for the company’s refineries.

虽然表面上非常规，但此举匹配墨菲的背景。她在阿拉伯联合酋长国和阿曼长大，是阿拉伯语和法国人的熟悉。她的外籍童年使她对更加国际的专注的职业感兴趣，但她最终在两年后回到吹笛者，因为她错过了市场和卖方的创造力。“我希望在埃克森州的希望永不淘汰出局，这是一个搬回海外的机会，”她解释道。

Back at the firm, Murphy worked as an associate for specialty-retailing analyst Jeffrey Klinefelter, then launched coverage of apparel and footwear companies in August 2012, carving out a piece of Klinefelter’s space when he was promoted to head of global equities. Her positive outlook for the fashion and lifestyle brands she covers centers on “premium brands with global footprints and strong market share positions” that can benefit from a nascent recovery in Europe and an expansion into Asia. Examples include footwear maker Deckers Outdoor Corp. of Goleta, California, and New York–based clothiers PVH Corp. and Ralph Lauren Corp.

Philip Ng, a Rising Star in Paper & Packaging, followed a different path to investment research. A graduate of the University of Michigan with a bachelor’s degree in economics and communication, Ng worked for several consulting firms in business valuation, but “it was very backward-looking,” he says. “Our clients were across industries, so I didn’t have any expertise in understanding any of these businesses.”

To gain more in-depth knowledge, Ng decided to move to equity research, first as a sell-side associate covering packaging companies at Lehman Brothers and Wachovia Securities, and then on the buy side at Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania–based Susquehanna International Group and Boyar Asset Management, a hedge fund headquartered in New York. He rejoined the sell side in 2010, when he was offered a lead analyst position at Jefferies.

这35-year-old, who works out of New York, cites many positives about his newest post. “It’s more dynamic. It’s stock picking. It’s researching. It’s client facing. It’s more entrepreneurial.”

NG对他的小组的前景感到乐观。“你已经看到了很多整合，这被翻译成定价权力，”他报道。“定价直接到底线，大多数我覆盖的公司都会产生大量的自由现金流。他们能够以非常精明的方式使用那支现金。我们正处于资产负债表足够强大的观点，以至于您将看到大量的现金被归还给股东。“

His recommendations include Memphis, Tennessee–based International Paper Co. and Rock-Tenn Co. of Norcross, Georgia. The latter’s 2011 acquisition of Smurfit-Stone Container Corp., one of the world’s largest containerboard recyclers, was a “transformative deal in the marketplace,” Ng declares.

另一名分析师将牙齿作为顾问的顾问，他现在涵盖的是Leerink Swann的David Larsen，这是一颗营业保健技术和第三年分销的崛起。Larsen，42岁，在哈佛朝圣者医疗保健，牛顿-Werlesley医院和联合律小组的这种服装中花费了十多年的融资单位，然后加入了普华永道作为顾问的咨询商，提出了如何使用技术来简化运营和提高现金的提供商流。

“I learned to really value high-quality, very clean IT infrastructures within these provider and health plan organizations because if you have good clean data, that’s how you run the business,” the Boston-based analyst explains. “I’ve used [Medical Information Technology], which is an IT vendor with one third of the hospital market. I’ve used Eclipsys [Corp.]. I’ve used Cerner [Corp.]. I’ve used a lot of these different systems that I cover.”

Larsen, who earned a degree in economics at Boston College and an MBA in health care management at Boston University, entered the world of sell-side research in 2005 when he joined SunTrust Robinson Humphrey as an associate tracking health care services stocks. He moved to Cowen and Co. and then, in 2009, to Leerink. The following year, Larsen was offered the opportunity to direct coverage of health care technology companies.

Equity research “always appealed to me because there’s a heavy math component to it,” he says. “Plus it’s a very dynamic, fun space to be in. I’m traveling all over the country, visiting with management teams and clients. It’s very interesting work, and the people in the field can be very smart.”

这analyst’s current top pick is Cerner. He believes the North Kansas City, Missouri–based company will benefit as both the Patient Protection and Affordable Care and Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health acts prompt hospitals to migrate to one technology platform. “If all of the hospitals in an integrated delivery network are on the same technology platform, that can help the management of the health system better manage and coordinate care,” Larsen explains.

As this year’s team of Rising Stars attests, there’s no single road to success in sell-side equity research. “There’s talent everywhere, and we want to have a bigger pool of talent to draw from,” observes Morgan Stanley’s Penwell. “Over the last few years, we’ve been aggressive in trying to tap as many sources as possible because there’s good talent with great experience at a number of different places.” • •

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