Little Shale on the Prairie: Energy Independence in the U.S.

To many, North Dakota conjures images of bleak, snow-covered landscapes like those in the 1996 Coen brothers movieFargo-这是一部奥斯卡获奖的讽刺经典影片（尽管有这个名字，但几乎全部在明尼苏达州拍摄）。但在现实生活中，北达科他州是美国境内的一个新兴市场，其石油繁荣以及德克萨斯州和加拿大重要页岩盆地的开发，将有助于北美在未来十几年实现能源独立。

Pimco’s December 2012 viewpoint, “Energy Face-Off他将美国和加拿大原油产量爆炸事件描述为一个改变游戏规则的事件，将对全球供需产生长期影响。

Pimco believes this growth in fossil fuel production will make North America energy independent by roughly 2025. Based on forecasts from Denver-based energy market analytics company Bentek Energy, growth of U.S. and Canadian crude oil production is expected to average 10 percent per year from 2013 through 2017. Additionally, Bentek estimates, from 2013 to 2020 about 50 percent of global incremental crude oil production will come from North America, totaling 4.5 million barrels per day. Some top-producing regions in the area that stand to bolster production include the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas; the Bakken Shale in North Dakota, Montana and parts of Canada; the Permian Basin in west Texas; the Green River Formation oil shale play in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming; the Athabasca oil sands in northern Alberta; and the oil shale deposits in Canada’s Maritime Provinces, especially New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

North Dakota has gotten a jolt from the energy surge. The state’s gross domestic product grew by a staggering 13.4 percent in 2012, according to a June 2013 report published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). To put that figure into perspective, North Dakota’s GDP growth was more than five times greater than the national average and almost three times greater than the second fastest-growing state, Texas (see Figure 1). Also rich in fossil fuels, Texas is another economic powerhouse, with the second-largest GDP of all states: $1.2 trillion. Texas has achieved a three-year compound annual growth rate of 4.2 percent, more than two-and-a-half times faster than the growth rates of California, New York, Florida and Illinois, the four next-largest states as measured by absolute GDP.

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东亚银行指出，采矿、建筑和运输业是北达科他州和得克萨斯州GDP和就业增长的主要驱动力。北达科他州的就业增长在美国排名第六，德克萨斯州紧随其后，排在第七位。根据美国劳工统计局（U.s.BureauofLaborStatistics）的数据，北达科他州的失业率低到惊人的3%（见图2）。该州的失业率是美国最低的：比全国7.4%的平均水平低60%，接近康涅狄格州2000年10月创下的2.1%的历史最低水平。

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值得注意的是，据CNNMoney报道，尽管北达科他州是访问人数最少的州，但这种经济和就业增长还是出现了。据美国人口普查局估计，截至2012年7月，北达科他州的居民人数还不到70万，按人口计算，北达科他州排名第48位，佛蒙特州和怀俄明州分别排在第49位和第50位。

本泰克能源公司称，由于水力压裂与水平钻井相结合的技术进步，美国和加拿大的原油产量在过去三年中大幅增长。此外，太平洋投资管理公司认为，由于获得资本的机会充足，生产率提高，钻井基础设施增加，未来三年，德克萨斯州、北达科他州和加拿大西部的产量增长应每年增长10%。太平洋投资管理公司认为，北达科他州、俄克拉荷马州和得克萨斯州在生产、管道路线、储存和终端市场消费方面都是关键州。我们认为，这些州将不成比例地受益于能源部门的强劲增长，特别是美国陆上油气页岩开发（见图3）。

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In the U.S. and Canada the adoption of advanced drilling technology has revitalized crude oil production. Emerging shale plays have led to solid volume growth as well as the need for future investment to expand pipeline capacity. Additionally, strong asset quality, high barriers to entry, long-term contracts, inflation protection, noncyclical cash flows and significant growth in pipeline capacity have created attractive opportunities for bond and equity investors.

Given these tremendous growth prospects, Pimco’s approach has been to identify and invest in those companies, including pipeline operators, that are most favorably positioned to benefit from prolific oil production in specific markets such as North Dakota and Texas, as well as from the energy landscape in the U.S. and Canada as a whole (see Figure 4). In Pimco’s opinion, growth in the midstream energy sector stands to outpace that of the overall U.S. economy during the next several years.

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北美比以往任何时候都更需要增长和创造就业机会。考虑到原油产量增长的长期前景，中游能源行业是增长的最佳可能方案之一。然而，能源行业和市场是周期性的，供需双方都会出现不可预测的波动。在经济衰退中，全球对能源的需求可能会大幅下降，从而导致价格下降和运输量减少。地缘政治风险也需要考虑在内，特别是考虑到中东对全球石油供应的巨大贡献。此外，美国和加拿大的拟建管道项目需要获得联邦能源管理委员会和国家能源委员会的批准才能继续进行。这一过程可能需要一年以上的时间，鉴于对环境的担忧以及对大宗商品供需市场更加平衡将导致消费者价格上涨的担忧，这一过程已经吸引了越来越多的反对声音。

总的来说，北美能源领域的新兴趋势，特别是原油生产，可能会对美国制造业、外交政策、国防开支、经常账户余额以及迫在眉睫的预算赤字产生巨大的连带影响。即使地区能源独立的时间延长，短期内陆上生产的增长也可能使美国摆脱非加拿大水上进口，并显著提高长期国家能源安全。

为了利用这些趋势，投资者应考虑在生产和新开发强劲的地区购买资产丰富的优质中游能源公司的股票。此外，太平洋投资管理公司还确定了加拿大和美国的一些管道和铁路运输系统，这些系统对投资美国产油州具有吸引力。

John Devir is an executive vice president and convertible portfolio manager at Pimco’s Newport Beach, California, office, where he analyzes opportunities for investment in the pipeline and master limited partnership sectors in North America.

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