Hedge Fund Manager Kyle Bass Bets on a J.C. Penney Stabilization

由主要对冲基金公司购买的J.C.Penney Co.的下降股份股票超出股票的预期。像刺破的气球一样放气。

在9月19日访谈中亚博赞助欧冠，基于达拉斯的海曼资本管理的凯尔贝斯，创始人和校长，持有J.C.Pinney Equity的对冲基金公司之一，“我们没有投资于周转。我们正在投资稳定。“海曼还在J.C.Penney的债务中取得了职位，销售对公司五年债券编写的信贷违约互换。

一周后，在9月26日，对冲基金经理了解到他们在德克萨斯州的税务所中，德克萨斯州的零售商将在J.C.帕尼发出8400万新股，提高220.6百万股的惊人宣布。9月27日的新股权问题筹集了7.85亿美元，并将现有股东摊薄38％，向J.​​C.Pinney的股价汇率从10.42美元下降到8美元以下。（它在10月17日收费为7.35美元。）通过比较，J.C.Penney股票于7月份超过17美元，一年前的近27美元。

“We were really frustrated. We didn’t believe they needed to raise the capital,”低音在CNBC上说J.C.Penney10月9日“显然，这不是因为他们想要 - 但是因为市场曾经说过他们想要他们。”

在过去六个月内购买了大型赌注的投资者的阵容包括几个广泛的对冲基金级数。索罗斯基金管理董事长乔治索罗斯于4月15日举行了7.9％的股权，在J.C.Penney的董事会被解雇了首席执行官Ron Johnson后，用他的前任迈伦（Mike）Ullman取代了他。约翰逊曾担任Apple的零售商店连锁的零售店，凭借J.C.Penney对折扣优惠券和销售定价来吸引客户。

The strategy drove away the department store chain’s existing customers and failed to lure in a significant number of new ones, sending the company into a tailspin. Soros supported J.C. Penney chairman Thomas Engibous and CEO Ullman in a bitter board battle with activist investor William Ackman, founder and CEO of hedge fund firm Pershing Square Capital Management. On August 27 Ackman sold Pershing Square’s entire position — 39 million shares, then an 18 percent stake — for $504 million at an estimated loss of $500 million. Other hedge fund managers stepped up to buy his shares, hoping to benefit from a rebound at the retailer. For its part, Hayman Capital snapped up 11.4 million shares of J.C. Penney, for a 5.2 percent stake.（阅读更多： ”Bargain Hunting at J.C. Penney“）

Another Ullman ally, Larry Robbins, founder of New York–based hedge fund firm Glenview Capital Management, jumped in to buy a big chunk of Ackman’s shares. Glenview Capital more than doubled its holdings of J.C. Penney, to 20.1 million shares, and raised its stake from 3.4 percent to 9.1 percent. This makes Glenview the largest single shareholder in the retailer, even after the new equity issue.

Richard Perry, founder and president of New York–based Perry Corp., bought 3 million shares from a Citigroup secondary offering of Ackman’s shares, raising his hedge fund firm’s stake to 15 million shares, or 8.9 percent. After Johnson’s ouster from J.C. Penney earlier this year, Perry jumped to increase his position in the department store chain, buying 12 million shares, a 7.3 percent stake. (Recently, however, Perry did somewhat of an about-face, selling 9 million shares on September 30, leaving his firm’s stake in the retailer at 3.3 percent.)

Ackman的盟友Steven Roth董事长沃尔德诺省Realty Trust董事长，是一项公开交易的房地产投资信托，辞去了J.C.Pinney董事会的终局，9月13日辞职，透露了沃尔诺多的意图销售所有1340万股所拥有的股票。罗斯在2011年初加入了J.C.Penney董事会董事会的罗斯，3月份售出了1000万股沃尔尔诺·沃尔诺多股份。Vornado Realty在J.C.Penney的损失可能与Ackman的竞争对手。

作为亚克曼和J.C.帕尼之间的战斗，在夏天出发了赛，公司债券的信贷违约成本大幅上涨。J.C.Penney Bonds的所有者担心他们面临着一个杰出的违约，因为谣言正在旋转商业贷款人“CIT正在从J.C.Penney的小型供应商倾斜”，“Bass在9月19日访谈中说。他争辩，J.C.佩尼没有做好处理公共关系的好工作。“CIT只支持一些有自己问题的小供应商，”Bass说。“他们实际上加倍他们在J.C.Penney支持大供应商的努力。”

Market analysts are unsure whether the new equity issue is decisive for J.C. Penney’s prospects for a turnaround. The stock offering was preceded by a scathing report from Goldman Sachs Group credit analyst Kristen McDuffy, who issued an underperform rating and a recommendation that J.C. Penney bond holders buy protection against a possible default through credit default swaps. The report, however, assumed the future liquidity needs at J.C. Penney would be met by new debt issues and did not evaluate a scenario in which new funds would be raised by equity. (Goldman declined requests for an interview with McDuffy.) The credit report sent shares tumbling ahead of the equity offering.

许多分析师将新的股权问题视为零售商的展望较低，因为公司燃烧通过自由现金流速度快于预测和消费者信心增益。“它给了一些时间，”纽约的证券公司最具基金集团高级消费者零售分析师Rick Snyder说，从买入持有的股票下调了股票。“也许加薪满足他们的一些成员，例如供应商，”斯奈德说，“但它肯定没有为股东做任何事情。”

一些市场观察者认为，挣扎的零售商是正确的。“I do not think J.C. Penney would have issued the latest equity if they did not need the cash, and I do not think it was a large surprise to the market,” says Ken Murphy, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Standard Life Investments in Boston. “The action removes the near-term concerns the market had with liquidity, most likely until sometime in 2015.” Snyder, by contrast, is not convinced that J.C. Penney’s recent equity offering satisfies the company’s cash flow needs through the 2014 holiday shopping season.

虽然新的股权问题通常会提高公司债务持有的前景，但J.C.Penney债务图片在其新问题后恶化。这部分是部分原因是零售商在其现金储备速度速度比预期更快地宣布。该公司表示，预计截至年底的信贷额度为13亿美元，而不是8月份的15亿美元预测。这笔ReforeCast特别痛苦，因为J.C.Pinney似乎在5月份的流动资金需要充分准备时，当它首先与Goldman Sachs一起使用其1,100家零售店作为抵押品的抵押品。

“Typically, when you have that type of equity infusion, it should be credit-enhancing,” says Monica Aggarwal, a debt analyst who covers J.C. Penney at Fitch Ratings, which on October 2 lowered its bond rating on the retailer from B-minus with a negative outlook to CCC. Aggarwal estimates the total cash burn in 2013 will hit $3 billion and that J.C. Penney will have $2 billion to $2.1 billion in liquidity at end-year 2013, leaving the retailer with a potential shortfall for the 2014 holiday shopping season.

Aggarwal认为，J.C.Pinney将必须将其整体销售额推向13.5亿美元的范围，这是2013年的120亿美元的实质性改善。根据Aggarwal的说法，该公司还将扩大其毛利率，目前困扰30％，返回围绕40％的标记。对额外现金的需求最终将依赖于兴趣，税收，折旧和摊销前的J.C.Pinney的收益。如果零售商明年需要更多的现金，Aggarwal期望它“可以以可转换的首选债务形式出现”。

After the equity issue, Standard & Poor’s maintained J.C. Penney’s already low credit rating of CCC with a negative outlook. “It really reflects the view that the company’s performance over the past 15 months is one of the worst we have seen in recent history,” says David Kuntz, a credit analyst at S&P. “For a company to change its strategy of merchandising and product so drastically, and alienate its customer base without testing it with customers first, is sort of unheard-of.”

Kuntz认识到J.C.Penney开始稳定，但标准普尔保持负面前景，因为公司并未产生足够的自由现金流量来涵盖运营和资本支出。“直到这种情况得到解决，这将推动我们如何考虑公司，”Kuntz说。据Kuntz称，现在J.C.佩尼是一种覆盖运营和资本支出的长途路径，这不太可能改变未来几个季度。这家商店的第四季度2013年表现是至关重要的。

“如果通过第四季度大幅改善的事情，它可以更多地购买时间，”康茨说。他认为，大型销售和优惠券可折扣可以再次为J.C. Penney工作：“它为梅西的工作。”

零售和消费前景的信心in general is weakening, according to Snyder at Maxim Group. “There’s nobody in the malls,” he says. That may explain in part why J.C. Penney decided to make the offer for new equity now rather than later, he explains. “The environment [for retailing] is bad out there.”

杰夫卡特是海曼首都公司固定收益总监，认为J.C.帕尼的稳定性是一种可能性。“现实是客户没有死，”他说。“客户只是在别的地方购物。我们认为，通过促进促销策略，营销策略，适当的商品，我们可以以相对较短的顺序吸引这些客户。“

Cate可能是某种东西。9月份J.C.佩尼的商店的销售额仅在上年下降4％，比8月高出5.8％。9月在线销售额同比增长25.3％。Experian Marketing Services Credits J.C.佩尼在返校销售中的飙升，帮助公司接管沃尔玛商店的2号在线零售点，并提前迈出了梅西和目标。对于像海曼的对冲基金投资者？Bass和Glenview的罗宾斯，这些改进可能有助于缓解J.C.佩尼最近的股权提供的刺痛。

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