Since the beginning of 2013 financial markets have generally taken an optimistic view of Mexico, although there have been periods of concern. Mexican equities, while down for the year, have outperformed those of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, the other four Latin American members of the MSCI emerging-markets index. The prospects for Mexico have looked promising.
如果历史数据是任何指示，强大的美国的增长将直接帮助其南方邻居，这将从墨西哥政府在能源，劳动力市场和政府金融等领域获得额外的益处。遗嘱对边界国家之间的不可明确的经济联系，墨西哥比索在2013年第一季度升值，直到春天，当美国联邦储备委员会的言论变得霍克兰和比索下降时，春天强烈欣赏。
But in economic reality, Mexican growth has stumbled badly. Gross domestic product grew a mere 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted, quarter-over-quarter rate), dropping a startling 2.9 percent in the second quarter. This weakness raises the question of whether the relationship between Mexico and the U.S. has changed and, by extension, whether Mexico might fail to benefit from expected economic acceleration by its northern neighbor.
关于简单的GDP增长，墨西哥确实在今年表现不佳（见图1）。2013年上半年其平均增长率-1.4％严重落后于美国的增长1.8％
在墨西哥经济,是否有变化wever, it has happened this year. Mexico’s 3.6 percent average growth rate during 2011 and 2012, while nothing to shout about, comfortably exceeded the 2 percent pace in the U.S. This gap parallels that seen during the past few expansion cycles.
图1：美国和墨西哥真正的GDP（季度百分比，季节性调整后的年度率）
GDP figures are prone to waffle from quarter to quarter. But industrial production, the activity that binds the U.S. and Mexico, tells a story similar to the countries’ economies as a whole. U.S. industry has expanded in 2013, albeit in a volatile fashion, while Mexican industrial output has contracted (see Chart 2). The two series, which normally show strong correlation, have shown unusual divergence this year.
图2：美国和墨西哥工业生产（三个月超过三个月的百分比，季节性调整后的年度率）
A look at the details of industrial activity, however, reveals a slightly different story. Mexican manufacturing has underperformed its U.S. counterpart by somewhat less than the headline series, and to a degree that does not look particularly striking by recent historical standards (see Chart 3). Meanwhile, the construction component of Mexican industrial output has struggled. Mexican construction posted sharply negative growth rates in both of the first two quarters of 2013 and by July was down 6.5 percent year-over-year (see Chart 4). While U.S. construction activity dipped in the first quarter of 2013, it came roaring back the following few months, posting a double-digit annualized increase. The differing construction cycles in the two countries, with U.S. construction rebounding from the housing bust of the past six years, account for the contrasting paths for overall growth.
Chart 3: U.S. and Mexico manufacturing production (percent three months over three months, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
图4：墨西哥建筑活动（百分比）
U.S. trade data shed light on the possible reasons for the Mexican economy’s sluggishness. These show imports from Mexico growing nearly apace with overall U.S. foreign purchases and, if anything, slightly eclipsing those of its neighbor so far this year (see Chart 5). U.S. imports from Mexico have barely grown recently, edging up an average of just 0.2 percent year-over-year in the three months leading to July. The problem is not any loss of Mexican market share but rather the overall sluggishness of U.S. imports. National accounts data tell a similar story, with real imports of goods rising a modest 1 percent year-over-year, versus 1.6 percent for overall GDP, an unusual lag at this stage of an expansion.
图5：美国进口（百分之一年，三个月的移动平均）
工业和贸易数据建议墨西哥2013年墨西哥表现不佳的几个原因。首先，墨西哥的建筑业遭受了遭受的，最有可能来自政府支出。通常在墨西哥每六年遇到每六年，在新的政府发现它的基础时，花费逐步发抖（埃里克佩尼亚尼亚曾在12月份参加总统办公室）。实际上，财政数据显示在2013年上半年的消费显着较慢。第二，最近的美国增长一直受益于国内生产商而不是外国生产者，进口相对于整体支出疲软。
这些趋势都没有表明美国 - 墨西哥关系的结构变化。施工弱点应证明短暂的，因为墨西哥政府设定其优先事项并批准自己的项目。虽然墨西哥似乎不太可能复制在过去两年中施工的快速增长，但在过去的两年里，美国建筑活动本身似乎很可能会冷静下来。
The expected acceleration in U.S. growth in 2014 should eventually push up imports — that is, in the absence of any obvious underlying reason for imports to continue losing market share, such as weakness in the U.S. dollar. Mexico has kept pace with other exporters to the U.S. during the past several years. If anything, Mexico has been gaining share at the margin and should feel a tailwind as U.S. growth picks up. In the near term, however, the Mexican economy has faced obstacles like storm disruptions, which will probably hurt the economy during the third quarter. Renewed uncertainty about the U.S. as a result of the roughly two-week ?government shutdown is probably weighing a bit on growth during the present three-month period. But the historically close relationship between the two economies will likely reassert itself in 2014, paving the way for a stronger Mexican economy.
迈克尔帽is a market strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
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