Advance Emerging Capital Is in Russia for the Long Haul

Emerging-markets equities remain largely out of favor with investors, which is not surprising, given the 4.27 percent decline in the MSCI emerging-markets index this year, as of November 7. And within the EM world, few markets get as much love these days as Russia. For one value investor, however, that’s a buying signal.

“俄罗斯是新兴市场空间内最多讨厌的市场之一，”推进新兴资本的首席执行官和首席投资官员Slim Feriani表示，伦敦基金经理为7.5亿美元。“从逆势的角度来看，这是一件好事。这是一个很好的入学点，因为其他人都避开了它。“该基金在俄罗斯股票中有12％的资产，与该国在MSCI新兴市场指数中大约6％的加权相比，使俄罗斯成为基金最高定罪的国家。

俄罗斯市场平均收益平均交易，远低于MSCI EM指数的10倍的平均价格汇率。俄罗斯的价格到账面比率也非常低，仅为0.8，与广泛指数为1.5。“新兴市场通常不是很贵，但随后俄罗斯非常便宜 - 你会在那里找到最便宜的，”Feriani说。

The poor rating of the Russian market reflects in part the low valuations in the country’s big energy sector. But even outside the oil and gas sector, Russian equities generally trade at roughly 7.5 to 8 times earnings, well below the emerging-markets index average.

FERIANI说，对于一个有越来越多的中产阶级的国家，这种谦卑的估值是有吸引力的。市场情报服务Euroomonitor International估计，5000万俄罗斯1.5亿人是中产阶级。据国际货币基金组织2013年，俄罗斯人均国内生产总值为18,083美元，以购买权力平价为基础。世界经济前景，使它成为黄金国家最繁荣的。Euroomonitor预测消费者一次性收入将在未来五年内每年增长5％。

Feriani believes that growth will benefit stocks in areas like consumer lending, retail, transport, real estate, IT, mobile technology, health care and pharmaceuticals. “If you can find a way to get exposure to these sectors, then you can do pretty well during the next five years, rather than the next five weeks,” he says.

Advance, founded in 1996 by executive chairman Nigel Wilson, a former head of the investment unit at the Bank of England, doesn’t invest directly in emerging markets. Instead, it seeks to identify the top fund managers in the countries in which it wants exposure and invests with them, making it more of a fund of funds. “We don’t want to reinvent the wheel sitting here in London and try to pick stocks across 50 countries,” says Feriani.

S＆P Capital IQ为其两项封闭式资金提供了推进金额，推进开发市场基金和推进前沿市场基金。

The $470.9 million Advance Developing Markets Fund, the largest of the firm’s five funds, was launched in 1998 and outperformed the MSCI emerging-markets index until 2008. Since then its record has been uneven, according to Peter Fuller, an analyst at S&P Capital IQ in London. It underperformed in 2008 and 2009, outperformed the index in 2010 but went sluggish again in 2011. Last year its performance fell slightly below that of the index, with negative returns in Russia and Brazil mostly offset by gains in East Asia, according to Fuller. “Towards the end of 2012, the fund became more focused,” says Fuller, trimming its holdings from 50 to 40 fund managers “to cover only the best ideas.”

该基金密切履行了该指数，匹配了今年前九个月的MSCI新兴市场指数的4％。基金的俄罗斯加权没有受伤。截至11月7日，MSCI俄罗斯指数上涨0.29％，远远超过更广泛的EM指数。

One of the firms Advance relies on in Russia is Baring Vostok Capital Partners. The four funds, worth a total of $3.8 billion, make the private equity firm the largest in Russia and has turned out to be one of Advance’s best-performing investments. It has delivered average annual returns of 35 percent for Advance since 2002, according to Feriani.

Baring Vostok通过投资俄罗斯最受欢迎的互联网搜索引擎的早期开发，在纳斯达克（YNDX）上交易。该公司于2000年成立时，私募股权公司以4000万美元获得35.7％的业务。今天，其市场概率达到128亿美元。其他顶级宠物沃斯托克镐包括伏尔加天然气，独立的石油和天然气生产公司;IDS Borjomi International，该地区是矿泉水最大的生产国;和俄罗斯最大的在线零售商ozon.ru。

For listed Russian equities, Advance works through the $230 million Verno Capital, founded in 2009 by its chief investment officer Dimitri Kryukov. He came to Verno Capital from Kazimir Partners, which Kryukov co-founded in 2002 and which earned a dazzling return of 460 percent net of fees during his tenure. Verno Capital’s chief investment strategist is Roland Nash, who joined Verno in 2011 from Renaissance Capital, where he worked as chief equity strategist and head of global research.

在Verno Capital的选择中，俄罗斯Sberbank是Feriani的最爱之一。前苏联时代储蓄银行，Sberbank已发展成为一个普遍存在的银行，在东欧的占地面积扩大。另一个Verno Capital Pick是7,650储存的零售连锁店，成立于1994年，由俄罗斯亿万富翁谢尔盖加利西茨基。

Fuller at S&P Capital IQ agrees with Feriani that Advance is not for the short-term investor. “For people who are willing to take the risk over the longer term, Advance to date has produced the goods,” Fuller says. He cautions, however, that Russia is very dependent on its oil and gas sector and thus is less diversified than other emerging markets, such as Brazil.

多年来，腐败和贫困公司治理使许多来自俄罗斯的许多外国投资者，而FERIANI承认这些问题是“问号”提前。“这是令人沮丧的一件事是，政府在引入外国投资者方面，政府并没有将其全部重视在投资方面，”他说。这让俄罗斯推动到“另一个增长水平”。

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