More than four years of bear markets in China may scare away many investors, but Matthew Vaight, manager of London-based M&G Investments’ £1.7 billion ($2.7 billion) Global Emerging-Markets Fund, isn’t afraid. In fact, he believes the time is ripe for considering increasing exposure to the world’s second-largest economy.
“今天在中国有价值，”VAIGHT宣布。“投资者似乎专注于银行业和政治的风险，这反映在估值中。目前，我们投资团队的两名成员正在研究中国的研究之旅，这表明我们正在识别那里的价值和机会。关于中国兴奋的是，这是一个巨大的市场，为自下而上的股票捡拾机提供了大量的机会。“
金钱经理often look to brokerages for assistance in finding winning investments, and this year China International Capital Corp. cements its position as the nation’s most highly regarded provider of sell-side equity research. The firm not only repeats atop亚博赞助欧冠一家中国研究团队名册，但也增加了其团队职位总额六，达到25岁，并将其初始出场数倍加倍，至十。美国银行Merrill Lynch在2号返回，16个斑点 - 少于2012年 - 随后在Citi中又排名第三位。
Credit Suisse将一个陷波分享到去年的第10家公司，Goldman Sachs（亚洲）分享第四位。每个人都有六个团队;瑞士信贷失去了三个，而高盛获得了相同的数字。今年的结果反映了超过450名投资专业人员的意见，在约450个机构中管理中国股权资产估计的61.1亿美元。
CICC’s victory is all the more impressive in light of the fact that over the past year it cut its research department head count by nine, to 68, while expanding its coverage universe by 59, to 685 stocks, according to Hong Liang, Beijing-based head of research.
“We are taking a relatively more positive stance toward the market, as we believe investors may underestimate the resolve and capability of the new leadership to deliver far-reaching reforms in the coming years,” Hong explains. “As a result, they may underestimate China’s growth potential as well as its corporate earning capabilities. For the next six to 12 months, we think the risk and rewards begin to favor many large state-owned enterprises with historically low valuations, potential reform tailwinds and the improved growth outlook globally.”
Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, who became president and premier, respectively, in March, are pushing through a series of economic and financial reforms, chief among them expanding foreign investor involvement in China’s capital markets. Also on the policy agenda is deregulation that will increase private sector and foreign participation in a wide range of industries, a key focus of the central government’s 12th Five-Year Plan that seeks to chip away at the nation’s reliance on government-led investments as the primary growth driver and move toward a more consumer-centric economy.
“Client interest in China remains robust,” confirms Angello Chan, who directs coverage of Chinese equities at BofA Merrill in Hong Kong and also scores a runner-up spot in Public Utilities. “Despite some structural concerns in shadow banking, our view is that China remains an inexpensive market from a valuation perspective and potential reforms are likely to unlock value in many state-owned sectors.”
There’s certainly room for improvement. The CSI 300, an index that tracks China’s largest Shanghai- or Shenzhen-listed companies by market capitalization, closed October at 2,373.72, down more than 37 percent from its high of 3,787.03 in August 2009. Continuous bear market conditions in China have made investors “more eager to know the possible reforms in the next five years and, more importantly, which sectors or stocks will be key beneficiaries and bring them any investment opportunities,” observes Shen Minggao, Citi’s Hong Kong–headquartered director of China research.
However, the nation’s most deeply entrenched problems are not the ones that tend to attract the lion’s share of attention from investors — or policymakers, according to BofA Merrill’s Ting Lu, who rises one rung to finish in first place for the first time in Economics.
“The biggest challenges facing China are not increasing public debt and nonperforming loans, shadow banking, manufacturing overcapacity and property bubbles,” the Hong Kong–based economist insists. “China needs to address challenges such as crony capitalism, the widening wealth inequality, the shrinking young labor force, environmental degradation and relationships with other global powers. The key risk is the development gap between the existing rigid political system and the newly economically empowered middle class who seek more accountability on the part of the government and are increasingly equipped with access to the Internet, mobile phones and social media.”
根据CICC的说法，这些新扶手的消费者在中国的增长中发挥着逐步突出的作用海燕郭, who jumps from third place to land on top for the first time in both Consumer/Discretionary and Consumer/Nondiscretionary. “The consumer discretionary sector — retail and home appliances — is picking up and recovering in a moderate pace as a whole,” the Beijing-based analyst says. “Going forward, we see overall consumption data continuing to gradually recover, with various hot spots in the coming season. We favor companies that meet mass consumer needs, promote multichannel strategies and reform efficiency.”
One example: Haier Electronics Group Co. The Hong Kong–based manufacturer “is committed to building a combination of both an online and offline distribution system, in the service of household appliances and furniture,” Guo believes. She dubbed the stock a top pick at the start of the year, and by the end of October, it had risen 45.9 percent. During the same period the MSCI All-China Index was flat.
消费者也落后于电力清洁能源的需求上升，特别是公共公用事业，花旗的排名研究人员皮埃尔刘。“China’s utility sector is a growth story, with faster growth in clean-energy-related areas amid the government’s emission cuts and environmental-protection moves,” says Lau, who is one of only three analysts to have consistently appeared at No. 1 in his or her sector since the team was introduced in 2010. (The others are Lau’s colleagueKam Keung [Oscar] Choiin Real Estate and Morgan Stanley’sBin Liin Health Care.) “The challenges often come from higher costs in using clean energies such as natural gas, wind and solar compared to coal. But the growth opportunities are often endorsed with favorable government policy.”
The Hong Kong–based researcher’s top picks for 2013 include Beijing-based Huaneng Renewables Corp., an alternative-energy provider that is part of government-controlled power producer China Huaneng Group Corp. “The rationale behind our positive view was the rapid growth in the wind industry and the company’s fastest capacity growth among its peers,” Lau explains. The stock soared 118.2 percent year to date through October, and it remains a favorite.
“China’s energy space is always dynamic and eventful,” agreesBin Guan, who outperforms his peers in Energy for a second year running. “There should be many growth stories given China’s huge energy needs, big structural-adjustment opportunities, efficiency upside and market-liberalization potential.”
Hilong Holding, an oil field equipment and services provider headquartered in Shanghai, is among the CICC analyst’s winning names for 2013; the stock surged 94 percent year to date through October. Guan, who works out of Hong Kong, cites two reasons for his recommendation: Hilong’s “growth potential and management quality.”
政府政策对其他部门具有更低的有益影响。“加强中国的环境监督正在为行业推动前所未有的压力”“CICC”报道郑高谁从第二位爬上攀登，以在基础材料中的名册上首先要求她的第一个外观。“我们将不断寻找在收紧环境监督下可能产生的机会 - 即，由于更严格的环境要求，消除过时的生产设施造成的供应收缩的周期性机会，以及从对新材料的兴起需求的增长机会实现的增长机会环境要求。“
总部位于上海的研究人员符合这些标准的公司包括福丰集团的生种基础添加剂生产商，总部位于济南，廊坊市梅花控股集团有限公司
Despite its best efforts, including requiring higher down payments for homes and restrictions on the sale of farmland for commercial development, Beijing has had little success in dampening enthusiasm for real estate — and that’s not likely to change, believes Citi’s Choi. “China’s property sector’s fundamentals are intact, with our forecast of sales [anticipating] a compound average growth rate of around 30 percent through the end of this year and 25 to 30 percent through 2014,” he says. “Margins are decent, financial positions have significantly improved, and overall valuation looks attractive.”
Shanghai-based Shimao Property Holdings, a diversified developer with a large portfolio of both residential and commercial properties, has been among the Hong Kong–based analyst’s top picks since early last year. “We like Shimao’s new management team, led by vice chairman Jason Hui,” he says. The executive team’s recent emphasis on asset turnover helps explain its compound average annual sales growth rate of 50 percent, he adds. Shimao shares bolted 38.4 percent year to date through October.
适应换档市场条件的公司也吸引了通知Wai (Eddie) Leung。BOFA Merrill分析师现在在互联网上的第1年的第二年，敦促客户“在某些细分市场中有领先地位购买和举行质量公司，同时保持密切关注可能使其商业模式过时的结构变化，“ 他说。
The analyst, who is headquartered in Hong Kong, includes two Nasdaq Stock Market–listed companies among his current favorites: Beijing-based search-engine operator Baidu, whose shares shot up 60.3 percent year to date through October, and Shanghai’s Ctrip.com International, an online travel-services provider whose stock skyrocketed 139.5 percent.
“We also recommend that investors stay nimble to leverage the sector’s volatility and catalysts,” Leung adds.
这一建议适用于整个市场，主叫M＆G的VAIGHT。“中国的经济模式正在发生变化，”他说。“许多中国公司意识到，完全基于成本的竞争优势不是可持续的长期战略。要观看的公司是外包制造业，以使其成本降低 - 例如，内蒙古或越南等较便宜的国家 - 以及投资研发和品牌的人。“
得到更多研究和排名。