TIPS: How to Structure a Retirement Portfolio

Individuals preparing for retirement often ask their financial advisers, “How am I doing?”

如果客户参与定义的福利养老金计划，答案相对容易，主要取决于退休福利公式，这通常通过薪水增加和可能的女性膨胀程度的通货膨胀保护。此外，对这些负债的观点是为什么界定福利计划的赞助者转向责任驱动的投资 - 这一方法不仅可以措施，而且措施的措施不仅是资产的绝对价值，而且是资产负债的关系。

If a client relies on a defined contribution plan, however, assessing retirement readiness is a more difficult proposition. The answer will depend on a variety of unknowns, including future contribution levels and investment performance. There is no simple way to calculate the equivalent of a defined benefit plan’s funded status or the ratio of assets to liabilities.

财政部Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), however, can be part of the answer for financial advisers. As inflation-linked instruments, TIPS can frame readiness in real, inflation-adjusted terms and provide insight into structuring retirement portfolios.

A retirement saver’s liability equals the income she needs for living expenses in retirement. Assuming that she would want to keep her living standard constant over time, her liability consists of a steady income stream that is adjusted for inflation and other increases in living expenses.

这种稳定的实际收入流的价值可以通过梯形图的提示估算，即在正确构建时，提供优惠券和主要支付的一致实际收入，这两者都适用于未来的通货膨胀。图表1概念性地说明了这一点，它可能会产生的实际收入稳定。

资料来源：PIMCO.

当然，这种年金的价值如稳定的实际收入流也可以通过保险提供者提供的真实年金的市场价格来近似。然而，使用提示比商业产品更纯粹是真实年金定价的方法。与提示不同，保险公司出售的政策不会被美国政府的充分信仰和信贷支持，政策包括利润，风险和其他变量的保证金。值得注意的是，提示市场提供了在个人进入退休时开始的稳定收入流的成本所需的正向实际产量的价格。

Consider a 55-year old with a salary of $85,000 and retirement savings of $450,000 who is wondering how she is progressing toward her goal of replacing approximately 40 percent of her present income, or $34,000, at age 65, excluding Social Security benefits. Based on the real annuity framework and June 30, 2013, TIPS pricing, her retirement savings would likely be able to generate $28,000 in real annual income at retirement. She would be 82 percent ($28,000 of the $34,000) of the way toward achieving her goal or slightly ahead of schedule, assuming she had completed 30 of 40 working years.

This concept, if extended to a range of portfolio allocations and expected outcomes, also could provide insights beyond those based on traditional return and volatility analysis. For example, we could measure performance and volatility based on the growth and change of future real purchasing power — the retirement investor’s ultimate objective.

Rather than measure returns and volatility in nominal terms, Pimco’s framework measures the value of a deferred real annuity by assessing volatility as changes in the annuity’s value. Using TIPS ten years and 20 years forward to price the deferred real annuity, we applied this alternative framework to a series of asset classes and portfolios using the last ten years of data. Our analysis showed how each of the asset classes and portfolios would have affected the size of the real annuity we could purchase, while giving a sense of the volatility around this expectation (see chart 2).

资料来源：PIMCO.; Bloomberg (as of June 30)

The goal, of course, is to maximize the size of the real annuity we could purchase while minimizing its volatility. This is critical, as it increases the probability that the target for retirement would be achieved.

To be clear, we do not advocate one asset class over another. Instead, we propose a more appropriate risk-return framework to compare different investment options and asset allocations for retirement savers. We believe investments should be optimized for maximum efficiency — that is, maximum growth, measured in future purchasing power, for a given level of risk, also measured in future purchasing power.

我们认为，个人计划退休将受益于考虑一个真正的年金框架，以帮助衡量其退休目标的进展。此外，我们认为这一框架具有信息，可以灵活地通知资产分配考虑因素，而不是简单地考虑各种资产课程和投资组合的传统风险回报特征以外的选择。该框架可以为投资者或赞助商提供重要的工具，以考虑一个退休投资与另一个退休投资。它可以给予财务顾问通过回答定义的贡献计划参与者的“我在做什么？”的问题。

Bransby Whitton，CFA是一位高级副总裁兼真正的退货产品经理Pimco’s Newport Beach, California, headquarters. He previously spent five years in Singapore as a director and head of Pimco Asia Private Limited, overseeing all aspects of the client servicing and business development efforts in Southeast Asia.

Klaus Thuerbach, CFA, FRM, is a real return product manager at Pimco’s Newport Beach headquarters. Prior to joining Pimco in 2012, he was a relationship manager at Frankfurt–based Bankhaus Metzler.

See Pimco’s legal disclaimer.

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