将洪水大量制度金钱影响欧洲的财产安全避风港吗？

渴望伦敦斯特帝国纪念品购物区的急切群众证明，对于商业房地产的机构投资者来说，存在安全性。亚博赞助欧冠客户正在购买的衣服将进出时尚，但他们购买它们的街道，包括牛津，摄政和债券（旧的）的神圣名称。

附近Mayfair的毛绒办公室，其中许多对冲基金占据，对寻找房地产避风港的投资者并不令人吸引人 - 这些物业认为可能在未来的几年中产生稳定的收入流，因为他们的主要位置庇护他们全球经济的变幻莫测。

在欧洲有资本流动markets seen as volatile to safe havens,” says Joe Valente, European head of research and strategy for global real assets at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in London. “It is manifest in the stream of money going into the U.K., Germany and France,” he says. Since the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings triggered the global economic downturn, these three countries have accounted for about 70 percent of the $100 billion or so a year of European commercial real estate purchases made by investors, well above the long-term average of about 50 percent, Valente says.

这种越来越大的素材投资浓度也在国家层面进行。“投资者不仅在国家方面进入了安全的避风港。他们也在国家内搬进了安全的避风港，“瓦伦特说。他估计，自雷曼崩溃以来，德国的三大市场 - 柏林，法兰克福和慕尼黑在该国的所有投资活动中吸引了大约65％的投资活动，从更典型的比例大约为50％。“这已经留下了汉堡等市场，在正常的市场条件下吸引了很多机构资金，”瓦伦特说。

Analysts detect two great flows of money pouring into the European property market since the credit crunch began. One is from Asian investors, including sovereign wealth and pension funds, into prime locations within developed countries seen as having stable political and legal regimes. The other is from the troubled southern periphery of the euro zone to the healthier economies of the north.

When it comes to European safe havens, “the West End of London is perceived as the gold benchmark,” says Valente. DTZ, the global real estate advisory company with a Los Angeles headquarters, says London’s West End has the most expensive office property in the world, with a cost of $23,500 per workstation per annum. But property prices, like that of gold, can reach dizzying heights. Strong investor demand has pushed yields on some central London properties well below their long-term averages. Yields on the very best office properties in St James’s, a prime West End location that houses a number of corporate headquarters, are now about a half percentage point below the historical average of 5 percent, says Stephen Down, executive director for Central London and International in the London office of property services company Savills.

Yields are tumbling in other hot markets, too. In Munich, for example, yields on office and retail property currently stand at about 4.6 percent, compared with an average of 4.9 percent since the end of the 1980s. Howard Margolis, managing director for real assets at Morgan Creek Capital Management in New York, says that there have been transactions at yields of well below 5 percent in big, internationally focused cities in North America as well as in Europe.

这些低收益率为机构投资者带来了风险吗？亚博赞助欧冠

根据伦敦阿伯丁资产管理的房地产专家John Danes介绍，海外投资者对“奖杯资产”的价格升幅主要是对“奖杯资产”感兴趣的推动，因为价格从之前的瀑布恢复了这么多的价格。“由于外国和国内利益之间的这种不平衡 - 有时在金融市场中作为一个体育部门的标志 - “在历史上第一次，超过50％的伦敦办事处都是海外拥有的。”

Danes questions whether the term safe haven is truly applicable to London because office property prices there “can be volatile.” Valente of J.P. Morgan concurs. “There are times when capital values in London have fallen dramatically,” he says. Between 2007 and 2011, prices for prime London commercial property fell by 50 to 60 percent, Valente says. However, looking at the average for the market as a whole, he says they have since risen by about 20 percent — a considerable rise, but not enough to return values to former levels. With prices at between £800 and £1,000 ($1,250 and $1,562) per square foot for prime office buildings, London is “not yet” in bubble territory, he says cautiously.

Margolis of Morgan Creek attributes the rise in prime property prices to the easy money policies of the Federal Reserve Board and other major central banks. Real estate prices in cities such as London, New York and San Francisco “feel very artificial because of global quantitative easing and the need for preservation of capital by families living in more volatile countries,” he says. He adds, “It’s very hard to make economic sense of investing in the expensive iconic properties, unless you’re a super-long-term holder.” Nevertheless, many institutional investors still see inherent safe-haven qualities in historical property hotspots, not washed away by the fall in yields.

例如,他们认为,在真正的避风港,strong underlying demand tends to cause prices to bounce back eventually, even after significant falls. “If you’re a long-term investor, London is a relatively safe place to invest because high demand will boost prices and rents in the long term,” says Valente. Strong rent growth in London’s West End retail districts, for example, could allow landlords to increase very low initial yields at the time of purchase.

He adds that investors are not necessarily looking for high yields in property safe havens around the world: “The biggest reason for investing in these markets isn’t attractive pricing but diversification and wealth retention.”

瓦伦特和其他投资者还指的是英国地主的最高级保护。标准租赁包含唯一的租金评论，并要求商业租户，而不是房东，以支付自己的维修和保险。此类规定最大限度地减少了意外成本的风险，并确保几乎保证了收益率，但低收入。“我们拥有世界上最资本友好的租赁，”西蒙希望，伦敦全球资本市场负责人和萨尔集团执行委员会成员。

Morgolis of Morgan Creek表示，对于那些对持有极长期的人来说，如果投资者“在几十年中思考并将其视为价值储存或保险政策，即使是低收入的主要物业也可能是有意义的他们的本国。“

尽管如此，投资者表示，对避风港财产资产的强劲需求使得在较少的主要地点中创造了巨大的机会，这些地点已经陷入了最基。MARGOLIS表示，投资者可以在主要美国城市郊区或略小城市的商业物业口袋中获得8％至10％的收益率。这种讨价还价有机会增长，“当他称之为他们，包括里士满，弗吉尼亚和盐湖城，犹他州。“在长期的普通资产和次要之间的平均差异约为100个基点，”摩根J.P.的Valente说。“目前，差异是近500个基点。”即使在伦敦市中心，如果他们准备在寻找更高的回报的情况下，投资者可以找到6.5％的收益率为6.5％：他补充说。