意大利的政治僵局被设定为确切的经济收费

IT HAS BEEN A DREADFUL YEAR FOR PAOLO FATO, the owner of a small company in Milan that makes paper trash bags for Italian municipalities. His prime customers, cities and towns that used to settle their bills within 60 days, now wait six months or longer. In the past he could finance his unpaid invoices at Italian banks in a process known as factoring, but the widespread credit crunch gripping Italy has closed down that avenue.

“Municipalities are taking longer to pay, and the banks have shut off the taps to Italian business,” Fato tells亚博赞助欧冠。“结果是公司只是死亡。我一天谈论数百家小公司正在关闭他们的门。“

对于意大利，三分之二的企业是小型或中等大小的企业，如法托的，雇用了15人，经济前景仅仅造成了不确定的2月议会选举。选民在派尔·路易吉博克萨尼民主党党内党的左侧联盟，议会下院，但离开了参议院，上部，有效地陷入了僵局，与前者的中度联盟Silvio Berlusconi总理赢得了几乎席位和他的盟友。结果被剥夺了多数人所需的左侧来通过立法。

进一步复杂化,五星级艺术运动nt, a political protest group headed by comedian Beppe Grillo, won a quarter of the vote and enough seats to affect the formation of a new government. Grillo campaigned to overturn what he considered a corrupt old order but offered little in the way of a platform to get Italy out of its economic decline. The party’s big slice of the vote reflected popular disillusionment with the austerity program put in place by Mario Monti, the technocrat who had governed as prime minister for the previous 15 months. Grillo’s refusal to form a ruling coalition with one of the two major parties means that whatever government emerges is likely to have a tenuous grip on power.

Bersani succeeded last month in getting two members of his alliance, both political neophytes, elected as the speakers of the two houses, but his Senate candidate, former anti-Mafia prosecutor Pietro Grasso, won the post with less than a majority, underscoring the difficulty治理。大多数分析师认为意大利将在一年内面临新鲜选举。

政治僵局可能会妨碍经济衰退的经济，使公司不愿意投资或雇用，银行犹豫不决，伦敦欧洲宏观信用研究首席皇家皇家宏观信贷研究负责人表示倾向于收紧腰带。苏格兰银行集团。“风险是你在经济中得到了一场摊位，在那里大经济参与者没有采取大型决策，”加洛说。

问题的一个迹象：意大利债务的税率仍然升高，虽然去年危机的高峰击中了峰值。Yields on ten-year government bonds spiked to 4.93 percent after the election, from about 4.0 percent in January, before easing back to 4.59 percent on March 21. Interestingly, Italian yields showed little lasting impact from Cyprus’s initial rejection of a European bailout plan that would have taxed bank deposits, suggesting that investors believe Cyprus’s woes won’t have a contagion effect on the broader euro zone. Spain, which had to seek a €40 billion ($51.5 billion) European bailout of its banking sector last year, saw its ten-year bonds trade at a yield of 4.88 percent on March 21.

Mizuho International的伦敦首席欧洲经济学家Riccardo Barbieri削减了他因选举栅格而对意大利的经济预测;他预测，该国的国内生产总值将在2013年收缩1.5％，而他以前的估计值为-1.1％。经济遭受蒙蒂的决定，在意大利在经济衰退中遭到危险的一段时间进行税收徒步旅行和预算削减。“我不认为蒙蒂有很多选择，”Barbieri说。“他被任命为伯卢斯科尼不想做的事情的任务任务。”

在他们的竞选活动中，Berlusconi和Grillo呼吁逆转蒙蒂的税收徒步旅行。Bersani更加暧昧，希望保持总理的改革，同时也实施“促进增长”计划，但从未解释了如何调和这两项。

Any move to ditch the Monti measures could cause rates on Italy’s debt — which stands at a massive 127 percent of GDP — to rise further, analysts say. Italy’s European Union allies are unlikely to endorse any stimulus program by Rome, having offered such fulsome support to Monti. “Because of the problems other large European economies are having, there is now greater pressure to relax the austerity, but I think for Italy it will stay where it is for now,” says Barbieri.

自选举以来，网格锁一直是机构投资者的兴起。亚博赞助欧冠3月8日，惠誉评级宣布，它已经将意大利的长期主权信用评级降级为一个档次，从a-中向BBB + +。标准普尔和喜怒无常的投资者服务分别将意大利降级到去年的两个缺口，分别为BBB +和BAA2。

“增加了政治不确定性和非辅助背景，以进一步的结构改革措施为实体经济的进一步不利震荡，”惠誉表示，近期就业和情绪指标的近期跌幅增加“更多的风险”旷日持久和更深的经济衰退比以前预期的。“惠誉预测意大利GDP将于2013年下降1.8％。

意大利新闻媒体已经确定了五星级运动所接受的令人印象深刻的投票，特别是在年轻人中，他们抛弃了近一半的投票。但Grillo谈到了意大利的整个选举制度 - 一个可能需要数年的雄心勃勃的议程 - 而不是实施该国迫切需要的经济计划。

贝尔松提出了发布特别政府债券，为市政当局提供融资，以便他们可以偿还对私营公司的义务。这个想法是允许市政府在加速的基础上解决他们的账户，并将意大利与法国和德国这样的国家纳入当地政府支付账单时的国家。

For small businessmen like Fato, such a move would be a lifesaver. “If we could solve the problem of payments by public bodies, which represent 17 percent of purchases on a national basis, there would be a boom in Italy’s economy immediately,” he says.

Bersani民主党和Berlusconi的右翼盟友的Ad Hoc联盟可能会在没有五星级运动的情况下聚集在一起通过此类立法，但此类交易可能需要几个月的谈判。谈判始于3月中旬，与党领导人乔利吉·纳普诺·纳普罗总统会议，但由于纳普利塔诺的学期在5月中旬到期，总统是一个更复杂的政治难题。Berlusconi’s People of Freedom party has suggested that it would support Bersani as prime minister if the left would endorse a Freedom candidate for president, but that seems unlikely, as the Democrats are drawing up conflict-of-interest rules aimed at preventing Berlusconi from serving in any official capacity.

In addition to overdue bills, another major problem for Italian companies is the pervasive credit crunch stifling the flow of funds to industry. Multinational companies have been able to tap the bond market for financing, but most small and medium-size businesses depend on bank loans to run their operations. Before the election banks were stingy about making new loans, but at least they were rolling over old ones. Now, however, even that lifeline has been largely cut off, according to RBS’s Gallo.

“这是中小型公司面临的最大问题之一，并带来了很多焦虑的市场，”意大利商业大厅集团Confindustria的小企业部分总裁Vincenzo Boccia说。“信贷世界变得更加选择，越来越少。”

“意大利的紧缩是银行根本不愿意贷款，”米兰的费尼斯经纪公司银行分析师Fabrizio Bernardi说。“如果我是股东，我不希望银行借给任何不能支付的人。”只有一个攻击指标：去年抵押贷款贷款从去年的50％下降了50％。欧洲联盟统计局欧洲统计局欧洲统计局欧洲联盟统计机构欧洲统计局的统计机构欧洲统计局统计，建设部门的施工部门的产量下降了15％，同比同期的同期，欧盟平均水平的两倍严重。

意大利银行的统计数据承担了趋势。根据中央银行的说法，1月份非金融公司的贷款下降了2.8％（统计数据上的上个月）。

Vincenzo Chiorazzo是意大利银行协会经济分析负责人的经济分析负责人的一个原因是缺乏需求。随着经济的双重衰退，很少有公司希望借用投资项目。他说，大多数公司正在寻求再融资现有债务的贷款。

Yet even those rare companies looking to expand are often getting a cold shoulder from banks. Take the example of Jacopo Moschini, who runs a Milan-based website called MyChicJungle. The site brings small businesses together with larger companies that might be interested in their services. With half a dozen employees, Moschini is ready to expand and hire new workers — if he can get financing. “We asked many banks, but they all said they will not provide financing to a start-up,” he says. “This means we cannot grow, which is ironic because at this moment what Italy really needs are businesses that create innovation.”

银行协会的Chiorazzo表示，银行最大的银行不愿意贷款是一个戏剧性的贷款。如果您在以前的贷款上遇到困难，为什么会延长新的信用？据该协会称，1月份，1月份，1月份的NPLS价格为1261亿欧元，比一年前的18％，并在12年的最高水平。NPL比例占总贷款的百分比从一年前的5.4％上升到6.4％。

The Bank of Italy has instructed banks to increase provisions and banned banks with tier-1 capital ratios of less than 8 percent from paying dividends. With provisions averaging about 40 percent of NPLs, Italian banks are well below the European norm of 53 percent. Analysts at Mediobanca Securities estimate that Italian banks would have to set aside an additional €21 billion in provisions to meet the central bank’s request.

意大利最大的银行Unicredit报告，在三倍贷款损失条款后第四季度净亏损为5.53亿欧元，达到46亿欧元。第2号Intesa Sanpaolo在本季度发布亏损8300万欧元后，售价为15亿欧元。两个银行的股票已被击倒。Unicredit于3月21日以3.64欧元的股票交易，比同一年的12.1％下降12.1％，而Intesa则为€1.21折扣。在美国选举当局在U.K.和意大利暂停了意大利金融股的暂停。

In January the Italian government approved a €4.1 billion bailout for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena. The bank, the oldest in Italy, had acquired Banca Antonveneta from Spain’s Banco Santander for a hefty €9 billion in 2007, only to see the global financial crisis drastically reduce the value of the Padua-based bank. In addition, Monte dei Paschi recently announced that it had made a bad €730 million bet on derivatives, which it had not disclosed to regulators.

“如果经济衰退更深，而且比目前的预期更深，因此政府可能需要进一步注入超越Monte de Paschi Recapitalization的风险不能折扣，”惠誉在其降级公告中表示。

Monte dei Paschi丑闻在选举中发挥了作用。该银行由Bersani民主党的基础控制。银行的贡献为锡耶纳地区的公民项目，文化机构和其他设施提供了奢侈的支出。五星级运动跳上了银行的经济问题，争夺他们展示了腐败的政治家如何操纵金融体系。

银行的亏损和救助队削弱了贝尔松削弱，并促使呼吁在民主党内进行新鲜选举。一些政治分析师认为，一个新的投票可能会讨论贝尔萨尼并用佛罗伦萨39岁的佛罗伦萨市长替换他，贝尔萨尼去年在初级大选中勉强击败。

Renzi与年轻人欢迎，并阐明了Grillo的许多相同的抗议职位。分析师表示，如果贝尔松可以被说服地撇开他的青睐，则可以在新的选举中举行更多投票。

RBS’s Gallo points out that even with the stalemate in Parliament, new elections could be at least six months away because of the change in the presidency due to take place in May.

虽然选举后意大利债券收益率立即跳跃，但机构投资者保持相对平静。亚博赞助欧冠据欧洲固定收益总监Franck Dixmier介绍Allianz全球投资者，酷方法反映了更广泛的欧洲经济和政治框架。

欧洲中央银行总统马里奥·德拉基去年7月的承诺做“需要采取什么”以保存欧元的影响。出现在欧元区分手的尾部风险中，德拉奇的倡议大幅降低了意大利债券和其他周边国家的债务。塞浦路斯救助提案和立场仅引发了迅速逆转的收益率的简短上升。

然而，没有增长，很难看出意大利如何能够退出危机。欧盟新的财政稳定条约于1月生效，要求所有欧元区国家在一年的时间内实现其结构预算的平衡或盈余。这意味着税收的税收增加和支出税收的税收增加，无论迪克米，无论政府现在，政府立即采取的情况，税率还是更不可逆转的削减。

所有这些都留下了意大利陷入陷阱。经济下降产生了一项对紧缩的抗议表决。反过来，政治僵局又进一步令人沮丧的经济活动。这种恶毒的循环没有什么可以激发意大利或更广泛的欧洲项目的信心。任何人都可以填补领导真空吗？