虽然每个人都在争论铜，金银之后的未来，但在戏剧性中期的延迟和最近的反弹到上升后，这是一个你很少听到的可投资金属：铅。
领先 - 汽车电池和子弹的东西 - 在金属分析师的时尚中，由于美国和中国的外部供应和健康的汽车销售，带来了一个看涨的价格预测。
所有金属 - 珍贵和工业 - 自2013年初以来就大幅下降，但领导是最糟糕的表现者之一。截至5月13日，伦敦金属交易所领先的三个月期货合约的报价为2,008美元，年至今的13.8％。然而，进入下半年，美国银行Merrill Lynch Metals MoreStrist Michael Widmer总部位于伦敦，认为领先于“基础金属中的一些最强大的基础知识”。
Widmer是最乐观的预测,铅,which has seasonal demand, will rise to $2,550 a ton during the third quarter and will drop back to $2,400 a ton during the fourth quarter. “What you find is that normally, there are two key demand seasons, winter and then summer. It has to do with very hot and very cold weather, which damages vehicle batteries,” he says, noting that auto batteries account for about 80 percent of the demand for lead. The post-summer peak is in September, “when battery producers restock,” he said, while, typically, the second quarter is the weakest.
Widmer is forecasting a full-year average of $2,363 a ton for 2013, higher than both the commodities research team at Goldman Sachs and Société Générale’s Robin Bhar, the firm’s head of metals research in London, with reports from both projecting $2,300 a ton as their 2013 average. Société Générale is in agreement with $2,400 a ton as a good number for the fourth quarter, but its third quarter number is lower than BofA Merrill’s, at $2,250 a ton. Goldman has a more conservative near-range forecast of $2,150 a ton over the next three to six months.
铅的需求上升的原因有很多原因，同时不断增长供应是有问题的。
暴露于铅可能是有毒的，很久以前就是环境保护局统治了可能的人类致癌物。由于新的环境法规，由于新的环境法规，由于新的环境法规，在过去三十年中被迫关闭的主要冶炼厂的数量，Widmer说，世界上一半的供应供应来自回收。他说，在美国回收商占产量的90％以上，并且该百分比即将成长更大。截至2013年底，美国的最后一次主要领先冶炼厂 - 一个120千吨设施，位于密苏里州的赫尔卡尼姆，由圣路易斯的Doe运行公司拥有，计划关闭。Meanwhile, the supply of scrap batteries for recycling “has been extremely tight, causing supply squeezes, especially in the U.S.,” and that’s already resulted in the closure of some secondary smelters, Widmer said in one of his reports, where he also noted that “large increases in scrap supply [were] unlikely.”
Overseas, Doe Run is in the process of restarting its 100-kiloton La Oroya primary smelter in Peru, which had been closed since 2009. In Italy Glencore’s Porto Vesme 100-kiloton primary smelter recently restarted, and other plants are going back into operation in places as diverse as Bolivia and Kazakhstan. The push for production overseas is due in part to the high premium being paid for the refined lead that is being imported into the U.S., Widmer says, with U.S. imports jumping to almost 45,000 tons in December 2012, up from less than 10,000 tons in October.
And in China, “the auto market has picked up strongly,” with sales expected to surpass 20 million units in 2013, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, notes Simona Gambarini, associate director and research analyst at ETF Securities (UK) Limited in London.
什么“证明是导致需求的奖金”是“在北美和欧洲的无线网络和电信升级的扩展”，“SociétéGénérale的Bhar说。他补充说：“中国领先的需求将进一步推动世界上最大的4G网络和替换[电池]部门的替换[电池]部门。”
然而，并非所有分析师都非常看涨。
在其最新的预测中，4月份发布的国际铅和锌研究组（Ilzsg），葡萄牙里斯本，铅市场应该“今年仍然盈余”，但它将是一个“温和”盈余42,000吨，比10月份预期的42,000吨，当它在174千万达到2013年的盈余时少于预期。该集团表示，向下修订是“主要是由于金属生产预测较低”。然而，它表示预计2013年全球开采的铅产量将增加3.5％至543万吨。（铅和锌经常在一起开采。）
Stocks of LME lead “are down by more than 110,000 tons since last December, with total holdings now at just under three weeks of consumption,” says New York–based INTL FCStone metals analyst Edward Meir in his monthly forecast for May, issued on May 6.
“In addition,” he notes that the expected excess supply of roughly 40,000 tons “is not large and should not significantly alter lead’s relatively tight ending stock ratio,” and that the growth in demand is outpacing the growth in supply “with this largely attributable to the relatively resilient global automobile market,” where Europe is the exception.
“尽管如此，”他仍在继续，“我们认为领导将在5月的课程中斗争，并将1,900美元的交易范围预测1,900美元。”