With U.S. Dollar Rising, Currency Strategists Make Basket Trades

One of the toughest challenges for foreign currency strategists is how to invest when the U.S. dollar is strong against other currencies and the long-term outlook calls for its continued rise. Given that many institutions have investment funds based in dollars, it can be hard to capitalize on the upward movement of the currency. That isn’t stopping some seasoned strategists from seeking to take advantage of the dollar’s forecasted strength.

There seems to be a consensus building that the greenback will keep climbing through the rest of 2013. “We’re pretty positive on the dollar and have been for some time,” says Kenneth Dickson, London-based investment director of currencies at Standard Life Investments, which has $273 billion under management.

几个因素正在推出美元。对于初学者来说，联邦储备委员会主席本伯南克于7月份表明，美国中央银行将于今年晚些时候削减价值850亿美元的政府债券的每月购买。

与此同时，英格兰和欧洲央行的银行一直派出前所未有的信号，他们将从喂养者举办更多的友好职位。On August 1, the BoE, under new governor Mark Carney, offered its first-ever forward guidance, saying the central bank didn’t intend to raise rates until unemployment falls to 7 percent, a level the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee doesn’t expect to see until 2016. ECB president Mario Draghi has also joined the guidance club, saying he expects interest rates to remain low on the Continent for an extended period.

“一方面，你有美联储表明今年晚些时候将有利率上升，而欧洲人则认为他们将保持更长时间措施刺激增长，”Charles St-Arnaud，Forex St-Arnaud，Outex St-Arnaud，Forex St-Arnaud，Of纽约野村证券公司。

野村推荐投资者出售一篮子货币 - 欧元，英镑，瑞士法郎和加拿大元 - 美元。如果货币向篮子而不是单个货币移动错误的方式，那么这个想法是解决“停止损失”，保险，而不是个人货币。“随着篮子的方法，如果诸如油价的尖峰和加拿大元的尖峰发生尖锐的事情，就不会急剧升值，因此圣·阿尔各答解释道。“这将使这一贸易对市场波动不太敏感。”

Sebastian Brown（图）是一名基于纽约的新兴市场外汇战略家在巴克莱，建议一个有利可图的策略涉及货币对，这些对成对不包括美元。布朗认为这一点墨西哥比索有可能欣赏因为美国经济崛起一般意味着对墨西哥的市场推动。因此，而不是只需购买比索，他建议延长货币和澳元缩短澳元。理由是，中国目前的经济放缓可能会在未来几个月损害澳大利亚的货币，因为澳大利亚是亚洲市场的主要商品出口国，因此由于比索的赞赏，其美元将下降。

“我们喜欢比索，因为墨西哥的结构改革叙述了，”布朗说。“我们在澳大利亚的澳大利亚的结构特征，而不是整体澳大利亚经济，这是负面的，并且应该在澳大利亚的整体经济中扮演澳大利亚的澳大利亚的澳大利亚的美元兑换。”同样，布朗建议菲律宾比索在短路时留下了菲律宾比索。台湾的经济与中国大陆密切相关，而菲律宾更加专注。此外，菲律宾通过了经济改革LED标准贸易员于5月升级该国的外币计价债务评级投资级 - BBB-第一次。

布朗说另一个篮子贸易是延长墨西哥和菲律宾比索对阵南非兰特和土耳其里拉，这两次都有下降。

标准生活的Dickson认为，伦敦的Dovish评论，法兰克福使用英镑和欧元创造了投资机会，投注一个人会欣赏，另一个将下降。“u.k的经济学。从一个非常低的基地一直在改善，但这些改进一般都让市场感到惊讶，”他说。“如果你有很长的时间，英镑似乎很便宜。价格上有很多坏消息。“

Dickson expects the pound to outperform, even with a stronger dollar. Although the euro has been holding up against the dollar, he thinks the solution to Europe’s economic problems and its banking crises is many years away: “Slowly but surely, the euro will have to come down.”

Dickson isn’t a fan of emerging-markets currencies right now, but he claims there are still great investment opportunities in the developing world. With the dollar rising, he adds, it makes sense to selectively buy emerging-markets equities in economies that offer good fundamentals while hedging the exchange-rate risk: “Hedging that risk against the U.S. dollar is not as costly as it used to be.” • •