The massive injections of liquidity, via quantitative easing, into the global monetary system has created a financial水世界. Drawing an analogy with the 1995 Kevin Costner film, this new Waterworld has corresponding climactic changes that impact the investment game. The impending possibility of this excess liquidity being withdrawn is likely to see winners and losers both immediately and over the longer term. Portfolio managers must navigate their vessels of capital — their funds — through the high seas of risk to drier land, keeping that capital waterproof by not only preserving its value but, where possible, adding to that value.
By injecting near limitless liquidity into the global monetary system while keeping real interest rates negative, Western monetary authorities have effectively melted the monetary ice caps. This has flooded the monetary environment and in doing so destroyed the anchorages and moorings that have constituted the foundation of Western investing for the past three decades — that is, the security of the so-called risk-free rate.
2007年至1987年美国联邦储备董事长Paul Volcker恢复了1981年的实际利率恢复了世界，无风险利率成为固定收入和股权投资的基础。在债券的情况下，政府债券的积极实际利率保证了这些投资车辆的无风险地位 - 资本投资赢得了积极的通货膨胀率。在股票的情况下，无风险率为资本成本的定义和加入企业价值的确定，实际利润，而不仅仅是会计利润。但这世界以来，自艾伦格林斯潘以来，沃尔克·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）担任美联储董事长，2002年搬家的利率。
在沃卢克世界后，我对西部和日本在西部和日本发展如何发展的解释是反映中央银行如何对抗经济老化或人口衰退的影响。（无论他们是否知道，或者现在为什么他们表现出这样一种方式，然而，仍然令人怀疑。）劳动力参与比率下降已经开始脱离成本推动的通货膨胀 - 即，由于价格的增加而导致的通货膨胀某些商品或服务。这可能被误解为极大的温度（在20世纪80年代中期开始的商业周期波动波动的减少），老龄化人口更加保守的支出模式减少了消费增长的自然速度。
量化宽松政策的第一个维度——半径标注matically reduced interest rates to the point of being negative real rates — was introduced by the Bank of Japan in the 1990s and copied by Greenspan in 2002. The aim was to boost consumption by taking on both consumer and government debt. Eventually, consumers balked at taking on yet more debt. In the West, this happened post-2008, when consumers’ primary source of collateral, their ATMs disguised as houses, saw prices collapse and thus precluded further borrowing. Liberally aided by central banks, the banking systems narrowly avoided widespread bankruptcy. Since then banks have been unable to finance consumer expenditure as they have been repairing balance sheets by reducing leverage while also trying to increase their capital bases, usually at the behest of regulators.
截至缺省情况，自2008年以来，接受进一步的债务主要是政府的堕落。中央银行发挥了关键作用 - 这一新债务的份额已被货币化。中央银行资产负债表的这种戏剧性扩张已成为QE的第二维度，日本现在也开始探索。
All the while, the West and Japan have continued to age; Japan’s labor participation rate peaked in 1992, whereas the U.S.’s peaked in 2000. Spending patterns of older populations have exhibited growing conservatism. For example, 55 percent of private wealth in Japan is stored in cash. This conservatism may have even slowed down the money velocity of circulation, as it appears that retirees turn over their incomes less frequently than younger generations. If so, this would have a profound impact on the quantity theory of money equation, which lies at the heart of monetary economics. To date, this equation (MV=PT) has assumed that V (velocity of circulation) remains constant. If this is not the case, it would in turn cast doubt on the effectiveness of QE itself.
If this demographic interpretation is correct, QE — especially where it involves the wholesale monetization of debt — would amount to a frantic effort by Western and Japanese monetary authorities to stop the natural deflation of their economies as the size of their workforces starts to shrink as a percentage of total population. Of course, were technological advances and hence productivity so profoundly positive as to offset this demographic drag, economic growth would remain healthy. However, this does not seem to have been the case; Japan in particular has now endured two lost decades of growth.
我用上述术语“通货紧缩”故意。尽管目前美联储主席本伯南克着名的2002年首次承诺，但他不会让通货紧缩发生在美国，这似乎正在增长。货币通货膨胀的大规模增加并没有，因为许多人都没有担心，导致更大的个人消费支出通货膨胀。实际上，美联储的优选衡量通货膨胀率现在在第二次世界大战后的低位。
QE抗凝霜已被发发的世界中央银行如此自由地应用，即它从无风险汇率停泊处减少了削减资金的意外后果。一些现代时代的投资从业者认为，在摧毁这些锚地时，货币当局已经损坏了我们所知道的投资世界。这是，他们维持，现在可以有效地使固定和股权投资的适当投资能力。
我不敢苟同。西部货币当局确实可能会从传统的锚地和停泊处削减资本，但他们没有摧毁该资金。仍然可以生存，甚至繁荣。高于年度通货膨胀率的回报仍然可以获得：凯恩斯维持在1930年，普通投资者的一个足够的长期回报率复杂的2％。然而，如果这种固定资本在当今世界繁荣昌盛，就必须，正如达尔文建议的那样，适应新的环境：Waterworld。苛刻和经常不可预测的水世界的条件不太可能成为该资本的永久命运，现在正在从过去的世界旧的旧法中削减漂泊。就像电影一样水世界，几乎所有资本的终极目的地仍然是干燥的土地。今天，今天的资本导航员的挑战是首先保持活力，甚至让它兴起蜿蜒繁荣。
My forecast is that most of this dry land will be located in the new world. In time this will offer new anchorages of certainty — new safe havens — new risk-free rates with real yields, and so new foundations upon which capital can base decisions to invest in both fixed income and equity. A few anchorages already exist: In Singapore, U.S. dollar returns on ten-year government bonds are still positive in real terms.
作为资产管理人员，我们必须将自己视为充满资本的导航员，该船只无拘无常地持续积极屈服，无风险利率。我们的挑战是选择合适的船只，确保它仍然是水密（资本保留其价值），处理我们每天遇到的风和电流，并为新兴确定性设定一个课程 - 新的锚地。
我们选择的船只或策略，我们选择的具体方式 - 例如，我们是否雇用了货币覆盖的旋转运动员？- 对我们的成功至关重要。因此，这也将是对我们所面临的宏观经济天气条件的正确解释。作为一般规则，过去世界的锚地与新的锚地之间的旅程时间越短。但有些捷径可能会掩盖危险的浅滩并隐藏锯齿状岩石。
资本肯定并不意味着无限期地在风险中航行。干燥的土地是首都首选目的地，因为干土地是大资本淡紫色的地方。
Michael Power是Investec资产管理的战略家。