我的投资者假期阅读清单，第2部分

虽然贸易商和价值投资者在同一池塘中钓鱼 - 股票市场 - 甚至可能有时捕捉同样的鱼，他们的方法和分析时间框架完全不同。然而，价值投资和交易分享一个共同的元素：两者都是由人类完成的，因此受到情绪的影响。这就是为什么我推荐一个虚构的虚构工作，以便在交易者的心灵内部提供伟大的外观，并教授许多行为和常识课程。股票运营商的回忆是，于1923年由EdwinLefèvre编写，描绘了伟大的交易员Jesse Livermore的初年的第一人称视角。据传，这本书实际上是由利弗雷编写的，由Lefèvre编辑。这是其见解的抽样：

我早期学到的另一个教训是华尔街没有任何新的东西。不可能因为猜测和山丘一样古老。无论在股票市场发生什么，之​​前都发生了，并将再次发生。

如果他期望在这场比赛中谋生，那么一个人必须相信自己和他的判断。这就是为什么我不相信提示。如果我在史密斯提示上购买股票，我必须在史密斯提示上销售同样的股票。

The recognition of our own mistakes should not benefit us any more than the study of our successes. But there is a natural tendency in all men to avoid punishment. When you associate certain mistakes with a licking, you do not hanker for a second dose, and, of course, all stock-market mistakes wound you in two tender spots — your pocketbook and your vanity.

One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.

A few years ago my friend Jon Markman took this wonderful book and made it better —he annotated it。His annotation is almost like a book within a book. He takes you behind the scenes of Lefèvre’s story and provides important insights into characters and the backdrop of that very interesting time period.

另一本关于李凡雷的好书被称为Jesse Livermore：世界上最伟大的股票交易员，理查德幕后。这是其最佳段落之一：

After several months of despair, Livermore finally summoned up the courage to analyze his behavior and to isolate what he’d done wrong. He finally had to confront the human side of his personality, his emotions and his feelings. ... Why had he thrown all his market principles, his trading theories, his hard-earned laws to the wind? His wild behavior had crashed him financially and spiritually. Why had he done it? He finally realized it was his vanity, his ego. ... The outstanding success of making more than $1 million in one day had shaken him to his foundations. It was not that he could not deal with failure — he had been dealing with failure all his life — what he could not deal with was success.

I really enjoyed readingStocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long Term Investment Strategies沃顿学校财务教授杰里米·塞格尔，但我花了一段时间来认识到这本书的危险程度。目前在第五版的这本书是良好的，并提供了过去两年内不同资产课程的表现良好的概述。但它需要一个不同的标题，也许是类似的Stocks for the Really, Really, Really Long Run.That way, it would not lure investors into a false sense of security when it comes to equity returns.

Siegel’s book preaches that the stock market is always a buy, no matter what valuations are, and that a 7 percent real rate of return is a birthright for stock investors, no matter if the market is extremely cheap or ridiculously expensive. This is true if your time horizon is 30 years or if you plan to live forever. It is also true if you can tolerate seeing your portfolio go nowhere for a decade or longer. Unfortunately, most of us don’t have that idealized time horizon. We need to pay for our children’s educations, weddings, boats and other things. I don’t know anyone who has the patience to see a portfolio of stocks do nothing for decades.

That is why Siegel’s book should only be read alongside the following antidote:Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles，这是Ed Easterling的真正相同的书籍。与Siegel不同，Easterling表明，即使股票对（真的，真的）长期跑步是一个巨大的投资，他们的返回是不安全的时期。Easterling呼叫这些时期熊市。我称他们的范围限制，或横向，市场，这只是语义中的差异。那些熊（侧身）市场发生在世俗的牛市之后。

What is the appropriate way to look at risk? I suggest two books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb:被随机性所迷惑：生活机会和市场的隐藏作用和黑天鹅: The Impact of the Highly Improbable。这些书籍解决与罕见事件相关的风险。

被随机性所迷惑is my favorite nonfiction book, period. I’ve read it at least five times. This book turns upside down the way we are taught to look at risk. Taleb rebels against the current Establishment of finance, which measures risk with elegant formulas that receive Nobel Prizes but lack common sense.

塔利布解释说，任何专注于过去的观察和解雇了围绕过去发生的事情的成果。了解随机性如何工作的一种方法是通过研究替代历史路径，这需要更多仅关注过去发生的事情。观察到的历史实际上只是许多可能的结果之一。一个人应该专注于可能发生的事情，可能存在的替代路径是什么。随着这个增加的洞察力，我们可以预测并准备将来可能发生的事情。

黑天鹅是一个后续行动被随机性所迷惑。Taleb takes a lot of the concepts discussed in the earlier book and explains them in greater detail, providing new and unexpected insights. I have to warn you that黑天鹅不是一个简单的阅读。每页有更多的见解而不是大多数书籍，但这不是一个读的海滩。如果您正在寻找Cliffsnotes版本，请查看本次2008年讲座的讲座，即Taleb在旧金山漫长的旧基金会，他涵盖了两本书中描述的主要概念。

In the second edition of黑天鹅, Taleb added a section that talks about how Mother Nature deals with black swans through redundancy. One way to avoid catastrophic failure is by having spare parts: We get two lungs, two eyes and two kidneys, and each has more capacity than we ordinarily need. Taleb writes,

一个经济学家会发现维持两种肺部和两个肾脏的效率低下：考虑将这些重物在大草原上运送的成本......此外，考虑我们对经济学家提供母亲的母亲，它会免除个体肾脏：自从we don’t need them all the time, it would be more “efficient” if we sold ours and used a central kidney on a time-sharing basis.

This reconfirms why I’d like to own stocks with “suboptimized,” debt-light (cash rich) balance sheets. Or, as Taleb eloquently puts it, “Debt implies a strong statement about the future and a high degree of reliance on forecasts.”

也可以看看 ”My Investor Reading List, Part 1”