Economics & Strategy – Economics: Third

Elga Bartsch的five-member team at Morgan Stanley in London captures third place for a third straight year. Described as “rigorous” and “accessible” by one Madrid-based portfolio manager, Bartsch predicts that 2013 will be difficult, especially early on, because of the risk that core countries could slide into a recession. Although the researchers anticipate a 0.5 percent contraction in the euro zone this year, as they did for 2012, they recognize a key distinction: The current slowdown started last year, but 2013 will “hopefully be the year in which we reemerge from this episode — and that might make a big difference for financial markets,” explains Bartsch, who also helms a team that claims a runner-up spot for coverage of Germany. That’s because the continuing process of deleveraging and balance-sheet repositioning could lead to a “tentative bottoming out” in the second half — though she cautions that the political and economic situation “remains fragile.”
—Carolyn Koo