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Emerging Markets Face Mounting Challenges as Global Liquidity Dries Up
Demographic and growth dynamics remain positive, but countries need to improve governance and pursue reform to take advantage.
The most challenging times for investors are when frothy markets turn choppy. As Warren Buffett once explained to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, you find out who’s swimming naked only when the tide goes out.
今天在emerging-marke投资者和政策制定者ts economies know just what he meant. These vibrant countries helped pull the global economy back from the brink of disaster with their quick recovery from the recession that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings in 2008. China used massive stimulus to get growth back near its torrid precrisis pace, bolstering global demand for everything from iron ore to iPads. Countries like Brazil and Russia prospered from the boom in commodity prices. Investors fleeing near-zero interest rates in Western economies sent record amounts of money to developing countries, spurring an epic stock market rally. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained some 150 percent between February 2009 and April 2011.
In recent months, however, the mere hint of a tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve Board has altered the calculus of global investing and put emerging-markets policymakers in the hot seat. Investors have rushed for the exits, pulling more than $47 billion from emerging markets since May, according to fund tracking firm EPFR Global, causing stock markets to swoon and interest rates to climb. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 5 percent of its value in one week in mid-August on jitters about rising U.S. interest rates, bringing its decline for this year to more than 15 percent. Over the same period the S&P 500 gained 15 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 6 percent.
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影响对新兴市场货币甚至更大了。巴西，印度，印度尼西亚，南非和土耳其在今年的各种货币下降了10％以上。他们采取了措施，包括利率徒步旅行（巴西，印度，印度尼西亚和土耳其），市场干预（巴西和印度）和进口克制（印度尼西亚）试图严格流动。摩根士丹利分析人员称，发展中国家的总体储备于6月和7月在2009年发生的第一次发生。印度尼西亚的储备在今年前七个月内截至200亿美元，或18％，达到927亿美元。
Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, endorsed the protective measures at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, late last month but warned that countries needed “further lines of defense,” including central bank swap lines and IMF assistance.
The prospect of a change in Fed policy after five years of unprecedented monetary ease is daunting. Investors with long memories will recall that U.S. monetary tightening helped trigger both the Latin debt crisis of the 1980s and the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The roots of the recent tensions extend far beyond the level of U.S. interest rates, however, and reflect a deterioration in economic fundamentals across much of the emerging-markets world.
China’s growth rate has decelerated steadily from 10.4 percent in 2010 to a 7.5 percent year-on-year gain in the second quarter of this year. To an extent, the slowdown is expected: China has become too rich to continue to grow at double-digit rates based on low-wage manufacturing. The country is in the midst of trying to reorient its economy from an export-driven dynamo into one fueled much more by domestic consumption — a tricky transition that may be anything but smooth. In addition, many analysts and investors worry that the country’s $586 billion stimulus program may have left a legacy of bad-debt problems at China’s big banks.(See also "Can China and Russia Escape the Crisis?")
雷曼的遗产：金融危机后5年来看看世界
随着中国Juggernaut放缓，巴西，俄罗斯，南非和其他原材料出口商不能再依赖稳步上涨的收入。石油和铜价的价格均在2000年至2008年之间增加了五倍。由于中国开始失去动力，在2011年春季，石油价格下跌15％，铜价30％。这种拒绝是增长放缓到巴西和俄罗斯的近期停顿的主要原因。
In addition, many countries are feeling the effects of losing their zeal for growth-enhancing economic reforms — or of never having had an appetite in the first place. India let its economic liberalization efforts lapse for several years, and although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recalled Palaniappan Chidambaram to the Finance Ministry in 2012 with a mandate to contain the budget deficit and open up the country’s retail sector, that hasn’t been enough to stem the economic decline. India, along with Indonesia and Turkey, also let its current-account deficit widen sharply. Those deficits, once easily financed, are now spooking investors as the flow of easy money dries up.
Many developing countries continue to suffer from corruption and poor corporate governance. Only one major emerging market, Chile, ranks among the top 40 countries on the2012 Corruption Perceptions Index，由透明度国际发布，一名基于柏林的治理倡导集团。Investors have been burned repeatedly by emerging-markets companies whose results didn’t live up to the hype, such as Sino-Forest Corp., which filed for bankruptcy after an accounting scandal, and OGX Petróleo e Gas Participações, the Brazilian oil company that is seeking to restructure its debts after failing to meet the bold production promises of owner Eike Batista.
所有这些因素联手表示怀疑on the idea, prevalent just a year ago, that the future belonged to emerging markets. Bridgewater Associates, the $145 billion Westport, Connecticut–based hedge fund firm, predicts that the advanced countries — a group that includes the U.S., Western Europe and Japan — will add more to global growth this year than emerging-markets economies, something that hasn’t happened since 2007.
To be sure, the emerging markets are not about to collapse. These countries are still expanding much faster than the developed world in percentage terms, and corporate executives continue to focus on them as a source of the next generation’s profits. The population of emerging-markets countries is projected to grow by 2.4 billion by 2050 while that of developed countries plateaus near current levels, according to the United Nations’World Population Prospects report。甚至如果大的国家看到他们的增长率缓慢，也是一股新的前沿市场，如哥伦比亚和尼日利亚，正在迅速发展，为投资者提供新的机会。
“从我们坐在哪里静态仍然是对土耳其，印度尼西亚或墨西哥之类的金砖金子[巴西，俄罗斯，印度和中国]和其他市场的乐观乐观态度。麦肯锡公司的实践“中国和印度在18世纪之前占全球GDP的一半，他们现在正在回到合法的地方。”
Most emerging-markets countries have greater resources for confronting today’s difficulties than they had in the past, thanks to years of growth and record reserve accumulation.
“It’s amazing to think that Russia defaulted in 1998 because it could not raise $5 billion, and 15 years later our reserves are $500 billion,” Anton Karamzin, deputy chairman of the country’s largest bank, Sberbank, tells亚博赞助欧冠。
Nevertheless, emerging markets face a much greater challenge in trying to sustain the progress made over the past two decades.
过去二十年的新兴市场的崛起已经真正历史。自1990年以来，中国和印度两次加倍GDP两次 - 在工业革命期间，在工业革命中实现了英国150年的东西，指出麦肯锡的炎症。英格兰开始崛起，以大约1000万的人口崛起;中国和印度的综合人口占20亿的综合人口，在比以往任何时候都在较短的时间内脱离贫困的人。据世界银行称，发展中国家自2000年以来，全球经济产出的份额几乎翻了一番，达到31.7％。在购买力平价基础上，它们的股价上升至43％。
如果只有在数学的角度来看，这种暴躁的扩张必然会减缓。“不需要是中等收入陷阱，但不可避免地是一个中等收入减速，”摩根士丹利投资管理和书籍作者的新兴 - 市场股票股份负责人Ruchir Sharma说突发国家：追求下一个经济奇迹。“The most important thing about China is to realign expectations for 5 or 6 percent growth over the next five years.”
Other factors are reining in yesteryear’s tigers. The past two decades of unprecedented wealth creation have adversely affected competitiveness, especially in China. Average Chinese wages increased by 17 percent a year in dollar terms from 2000–’12, according to research by Sammy Suzuki, portfolio manager for emerging-markets core equities atAlliancebernstein.。只有俄罗斯的平均工资每年攀登23％，那么幼儿园才徘徊。中国大多数亚洲邻国将工人持续到同一时期的单位年度工资徒步旅行。相比之下，墨西哥减少了每年升高的0.4％。看待这些数字，难怪中国的领导人已经设定了转向出口导向的增长的目标。
Russia and Brazil have tried to counteract softening commodity earnings by using consumer credit to boost spending, but both have had to put on the brakes, fearing inflation and bad-debt problems.
The best path forward for these countries, says Sharma, is the one blazed by Japan, which reached middle-income status in the 1970s, and followed by South Korea and Taiwan, which hit that milestone in the 1980s. These countries moved to the top of the value-added chain and created world-beating companies like Toyota Motor Corp., Samsung Group and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. China seems to be the best positioned of the BRICs for this transformation; Russia, with virtually no globally competitive products except for raw materials and weapons, the worst.
Success has become a problem for many rising economic powers in another way: It has made their leaders complacent and resistant to change. Consider the role of large state-owned companies and banks. In the 1990s the U.S. and the IMF urged developing countries to privatize wide swaths of their economies as part of market-oriented reforms, but the so-called Washington Consensus has lost credibility as the U.S. and Europe have struggled with self-inflicted economic wounds, while China’s rise has increased the appeal of state-led capitalism. In recent years privatization has ground to a halt in many countries.
The renewed prominence of state-controlled companies has been anything but beneficial for these economies. Companies with at least 30 percent state ownership account for roughly one third of the emerging markets’ collective $9 trillion market capitalization, and their value has dropped by a stunning 40 percent over the past five years, according to calculations by Morgan Stanley’s Sharma.
中国工商银行(icbc)和中国Construction Bank Corp., both state-owned, top this year’s Forbes Global 2000 list of the world’s largest corporations. They are among the world’s most profitable banks, but stocks of both have performed poorly because of investor worries about bad-debt problems. ICBC’s shares have fallen by 11 percent since August 2010, while CCB’s have declined by 12 percent. Petróleo Brasileiro and Gazprom are by far the largest companies in Brazil and Russia, respectively, but their exploration efforts have failed to produce much in the way of production gains, and their stock prices have fallen by more than half since April 2011. “If you could get some visible improvements at a company like Petrobras or Gazprom, it would really push the whole market,” says Tim Seymour, managing partner at Triogem Asset Management, a $300 million New York hedge fund firm that focuses on emerging markets. He is not holding his breath, though.
更广泛的系统改革已经放缓，如果没有地在领先的新兴市场停止，而且公司治理丑闻仍然是经常出现的。十几个或如此公开交易的中国公司的股票因2010年和2011年的会计违规行为而崩溃;资本化在2012年在加拿大达到了60亿美元的资本化达到了60亿美元，以便在2012年在中国夸大了它的木材控股。Those scandals have been a major factor in the nearly 35 percent drop in China’s CSI 300 index since the end of 2009. In October 2011 the Securities and Exchange Board of India reported an “elaborate scheme to manipulate markets” involving the conversion of Luxembourg-listed global depositary receipts of 17 different companies into domestic shares at arbitrary multiples. In July, Brazil’s securities regulator launched an investigation into allegations of insider trading at OGX after owner Batista sold a chunk of shares shortly before the company issued a warning about its oil output prospects.
投资者说，对这些丑闻的正式回应是最小的。“公司治理在世界任何地方并没有变得越来越好，”富兰克林·斯坦普顿投资的新兴市场集团执行主席Mark Mobius Mark Mobius说。
Corruption is not getting better, either. Out of 178 countries in Transparency International’s 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index, the BRICs ranged from 69th place (Brazil) to 133rd (Russia) — a little worse, on average, than their scores five years earlier.
当繁荣在大部分发展世界中提升了流行的期望时，增长和流行结构问题较慢和流行结构问题的结合在于繁荣。今年夏天在巴西在里约热内卢和圣保罗举行的高级公共汽车票据的当地抗议活动迅速转移到全国范围内的不平等示范，并在2014年国际足联世界杯和2016年夏季奥运会上的政府支出的涉嫌奢侈。在土耳其政府计划推舵中央伊斯坦布尔公园的计划，激发了一个清真寺和购物中心，引发了更广泛的抗议活动，反对总理Reacep Tayyip Erdo政府的被感知的威权主义？GaN;骚乱促进了伊斯坦布尔股市下跌25％。
“如果人们的收入没有尽可能快地增加，他们将更多地关注那些比他们更加丰富的人，”麦肯锡的阿斯蒙说。“我们无法预测这将如何发挥作用。”
如果美联储减少了这种秋季的债券购买，所有这些消极因素都将更突出地发挥作用，并提出全球市场的大量流动性开始后退。根据国际货币基金组织的拉加德的说法，累积净资金流入新兴市场债券的债券已上涨，超过了1.1万亿美元，超出了长期的结构趋势，估计的4700亿美元。包括股票和外国直接投资的整体净流量，自2010年以来一年以上的价格超过1.1万亿美元。如果流量的逆转到达那个幅度附近的任何地方，则可能会影响从增长率到股票价格的一切跨越大部分发展中国家的消费者信贷的可用性。
The emerging-markets story is hardly over, though. The BRICS may have slowed significantly, but a number of other markets, most of them at a much earlier point on the development curve, continue to generate strong growth and investment gains.
“We are looking for places with a catalyst for positive change, usually a new leader who comes to power after a bad decade or two,” says Morgan Stanley’s Sharma.
菲律宾是一个巅峰的例子。自2010年以来以来，贝尼奥科基诺总统III总统推动了加强该国财务和收入不平等收入的财政和农业改革。他促进了该国作为呼叫中心和商业外包的位置。结果令人印象深刻：去年经济扩大了6.4％，并正在追踪今年类似的表现。菲律宾在5月份达到了一个里程碑，当标准差距第一次为国家提供了投资级评级时。
Investors have also flocked to Nigeria, where President Goodluck Jonathan has overseen growth rates above 6 percent since his election in 2011 and developed a blueprint for ambitious, pro-market reforms in the power and agricultural sectors. Markets have responded: The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index shot up 54 percent in the 12 months to August 29, to 36,400.38.
“What’s really new since 2008 is the emergence of the frontier,” says Franklin Templeton’s Mobius. “It’s like 1987 all over again. We are flying around the world setting up brokerage and custody arrangements. It’s very exciting.”
Many frontier markets are actively courting international investors and pursuing governance reforms and market-oriented policies. “Almost anywhere you go around the world, you are going to find a competent finance minister and central banker. That just wasn’t the case 15 years ago,” says Lado Gurgenidze, former prime minister of Georgia and now chairman of gboth Georgia’s Liberty Bank and Bank of Kigali in Rwanda.
风险肯定会回到新兴市场，而是下一代奖励招手。•