投资者Hinge ETF Strategy on Fed Tapering Timing

在联邦储备委员会于9月18日宣布后，将推迟逐渐减少其量化宽松计划，投资者可以呼吸更容易 - 至少暂时。“逐渐变化是不可避免的”，S＆P Capital IQ的交易所交易基金和共同基金研究总监Todd Rosenbluth表示。他说，投资者应利用这种新发现时间来评估他们对若干ETF的利率风险，他表示。

“投资者担心利率上涨以及奥斯汀，德克萨斯州的圣人咨询服务澳大利亚州澳大利亚州澳大利亚州澳大利亚州澳大利亚州咨询服务的股票交易经理和高级交易员托马斯·鲁塔诺在管理层的资产中。美联储的延迟逐渐减少的决定意味着投资管理人员必须准确地衡量投资者的Skitthishsness已经考虑到市场，以及在刺激支出的最终衰退之后的程度更大。但美联储的延误也意味着固定收入市场有一段时间才能收回。

“There also is a budget battle and more data expected to be released on the economy,” says Urano. “That creates a little uncertainty in the markets in general. And risk assets don’t generally do well in times of uncertainty. I definitely want to remain defensive from an interest rate standpoint.”

在过去几周内，不确定性一直在市场上发挥出来。早些时候，八月份，投资者从美国的ETF债券基金中吹了约66亿美元，担心美联储正在抑制其850亿美元的月度债券购买计划，称罗森布拉斯从黑石报价。9月份投资者从纳税债券相互资金中额外增加了75亿美元，并从中间债务和短期债务迁移。但罗森布朗，其团队在8月份观看现金也流入了更短的债券基金，看到了其他选择。

“ETF investors aren’t locked into a mutual fund or worried about supply in the case of individual bonds,” he notes. The plays, aimed at high yield for greater interest rate risk, mostly depend on two factors: how much over the risk-free rate of return an investor wants to go and the news coming from Washington and elsewhere. ETFs are suitably structured to enable sudden moves in strategy, such as shifting from intermediate- to short-duration bonds, should rates jump or the Fed taper.

With regards to intermediate-duration bond ETFs, S&P Capital IQ’s Investment Policy Committee recommends BlackRock’s iShares three-to-seven-year Treasury Bond ETF as a risk-averse choice. It has a short duration of 4.5 years but a low yield of 1.4 percent. The committee is also talking up Guggenheim BulletShares 2016 High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, which holds riskier B-rated, 4.3-year-duration corporate bonds offering a higher yield of 4.9 percent. Rosenbluth has a negative take on Pimco’s Enhanced Short Maturity ETF Fund (MINT), which has an average duration of just 1.2 years and a year-to-date yield of less than 1 percent.

The MINT exchange-traded fund went down less than many other fixed-income ETFs as rates moved higher over the spring and summer. “If rates don’t keep climbing, you’re just getting less for your investment,” Rosenbluth reasons. But at the same time, he mentions market chatter about the Federal Reserve’s taking action before the end of the year — rumors that were confirmed on September 27 by Charles Evans, head of the Chicago Fed.

“If you take that seriously, the MINT makes sense for you,” Rosenbluth says. “If you don’t and the rates stay around where they are for the next six months, taking intermediate risk is appropriate.”

This past March, Van Eck Global launched the Market Vectors Treasury-Hedged High Yield Bond ETF, a low-duration fund that is long a diversified portfolio of high-yield corporate bonds and short an equivalent amount of five-year Treasuries. The fund’s goal is to mitigate the impact of the Treasury yields “but not the credit risk or movement in credit spreads, due to the long portfolio of high-yield corporates,” says Francis Rodilosso, the fund’s portfolio manager.

“High-yield bonds and credit spreads were at historic lows, and there was a lot of low-interest refinancing,” Rodilosso says of the thinking at Van Eck in late 2012, when the firm started developing the fund. “So interest rate risk was greater than credit risk in portfolios,” which pointed to the need for another product that could limit interest rate risk.

越来越少的投资者而不是乘坐利率不确定性的方法可能希望考虑IndexIQ的Multiagset对冲多策略ETF（QAI）。养老基金，投资银行和电线馆正在2009年3月25日在其平台上推出该基金。基于纽约基金会的基金公司Rye Brook的首席执行官Adam Patti表示，Qai股票，商品，房地产和债券。

“这是关于最小化投资组合波动性，”他说。“我们不会将Qai定位为产量。”

Patti says he expects the fund to deliver a total return of 3 to 6 percentage points higher than risk-free investments if rates stay the same or rise — a projection that has already come to fruition so far. “QAI,” says Patti, “outperformed the aggregate bond market by 5 percent this year.”

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