Daily Agenda: International Bond Market Plays Musical Chairs

如今，投资者情绪正从大宗商品市场（尤其是石油市场）转向固定收益市场。还有多少空间可以聚集？Gluskin-Sheff市场策略师David Rosenberg昨日在给客户的报告中一针见血地指出：“人们确实要想知道，10年期日本国债收益率为0.7%，进一步上涨的空间有多大；法国为1%；西班牙为1.8%，意大利为2%欧洲央行债券购买更新日本经济衰退当然，说债券几乎没有上涨的空间与说它们将抛售是完全不同的，而且，由于通胀仍然不见踪影，似乎很少有投资者愿意押注于近期的暴跌。在音乐椅子的游戏中，人们猜测收益率何时会最终上升，音乐似乎注定要继续演奏一段时间。

欧洲的数据继续低迷。Markit今早公布的欧元区非制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）最终数据显示，欧元区的PMI水平低于最初的快速读数，法国的PMI指数出现了大幅萎缩。在欧洲央行明日宣布之前，衡量远期需求的主要指标新秩序分项指数（new order subindex）在这段时间内下跌，为央行采取行动的理由增添了佐证。

中国的收益率上升。财政部拍卖7年期主权债务，收益率明显高于预期，为3.6%。分析师将近期中国国内债务市场的压力归因于中国人民银行作为经济数据公司进一步干预市场的可能性较低。另外，国家统计局今天发布的非制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）最终数据也比闪电读数有所改善，汇丰指数（HSBC）也是如此，该指数主要关注小型企业的经理。

U.S. data on deck.A number of economic data points are coming out in the U.S. today, including the ADP employment report, third-quarter nonfarm productivity and November ISM nonmanufacturing levels. The critical ISM employment subindex for the service sector and ADP data will be carefully parsed by investors in the run-up to Department of Labor employment situation release on Friday. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its Beige Book at 2 pm.

RBC公布收益。今天上午，加拿大皇家银行是第一家加拿大金融机构公布第四财季财报，略逊于商业银行和财富管理的收益，这些收益部分被资本市场表现不佳所抵消。该行公布的每股净收入为1.57加元（合1.38美元），去年同期为1.40美元，分析师普遍预测为1.58美元。

投资组合观点：欧洲能源板块股票将进一步下挫—彼特·塔塞拉尔和提斯·霍弗，卢塞恩首都

本月，我们对能源行业，特别是石油服务业的悲观看法得到了回报，因为我们继续看到经营环境恶化，导致许多盈利警告。

我们已经写了我们在石油服务领域的担忧。这个油价下跌良好的文档记录,但还有其他的事实吗ors at play here as well. In a deteriorating operating environment, we remain concerned with businesses that have both a high fixed-cost base component, such as seismic boats, rigs and subsea installation vessels, and too much leverage on their balance sheets. As the oil majors focus on their own returns and the capital expenditure budgets of their suppliers are reined in, we believe that the services companies remain very poorly positioned for this shifting dynamic. This month we have seen profit warnings from Petrofac and Seadrill. We continue to believe that market participants are underestimating the toxicity of a low-quality fixed asset base burdened with high financial leverage.

As a region, Europe is still delivering anemic growth rates and therefore, we believe our fundamental stock selection process is crucial to generating double-digit annualized net returns. Within this backdrop, we look to uncover solid businesses run by exceptional management teams that benefit from a discounted European valuation but sell their products abroad into faster-growing end markets. We are not buying Europe per se; we are investing in various pockets of excellence headquartered in that region.

卢塞恩资本管理公司是一家总部位于康涅狄格州格林威治的多空股权投资公司，专注于欧洲大陆。投资组合经理Pieter Taselaar和Thijs Hovers自2002年成立以来一直在监管公司的旗舰Lucerne Capital基金。