美国银行Merrill Lynch是2014年全球全球研究公司

Fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut back its bond-buying purchases too soon or too aggressively sent markets reeling in 2013. When the tapering actually began, in January 2014, world markets merely shrugged — and the program wrapped up in October with very little fanfare.

Now investors are focused on when the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates, and by how much. Market participants have differing opinions, but most agree that a repeat of last year’s turmoil is unlikely.

“重要的是要意识到的是，锥度发脾气反映了美联储的令人惊讶的市场，”纽约州美林林港全球研究负责人坎德拉德·勃朗宁。“我们认为美联储非常谨慎地对汇率徒步旅行的信息，并且市场在晚期开始定价 - 在第四季度的某个时候 - 一旦它开始就会缓慢循环。我们不指望另一个发脾气。“

尽管如此，投资者可能会焦虑，直到他们确切地知道何时以及央行在何种程度上。这只是他们思想的一个问题。中国的增长放缓，欧元区的持续弱点，日本的经济复苏不均匀，中东和乌克兰的地缘政治风险以及其他问题，将有货币管理者转向销售方面的最新洞察和更新未来一年的发展 - 就像在过去的12个月内完成的那样，当这些同样的问题主导了头条新闻时。

在一年中，亚博赞助欧冠要求投资组合经理和其他买方专业人士告诉我们，他们的哪些卖方同行提供了最有效的指导。我们12次年度研究团队调查的结果分别发布，但当总计汇总时，美国银行Merrill Lynch声称称号II一年中最高的全球研究公司。今年将银行的第四次直观出现在这个名单上标志着，其总量最高：260个职位。这三个超过了它last yearand 39 more than J.P. Morgan, which finishes in second place for a fourth year. It claims 221 spots, 11 more than in 2013. These are the only two firms whose aggregated totals exceed 200.

在第三位，总体上是摩根士丹利，在增加20岁以上的总数增加到174岁以上，德意志银行将一个梯级滑倒于4号，即使它的总普遍普遍34岁，至134。这是连续第二年德国金融服务公司持续了两位数损失;它从193年到了2012年的总计到了去年的168年。

信用瑞士和巴克莱分别是第五和第六位的颈部和颈部，总计为113和112。

点击The Top Global Research Firms在右侧导航表中，为所有100家公司获得了最终结果的最终结果II2014年研究团队。

当涉及分析师和团队被认为是他们各自的类别中最好的，Bofa Merrill和J.P. Morgan分别在其他公司的前面遥远，分别有65和60个一级饰面。巴克莱排名第三，当公司通过这种指标衡量，缺口27个扇区顶部出场，其次是德意志银行，26岁。所有这些都告诉来自43家公司的分析师至少获得一个1号职位。

Our surveys cover a combination of developed and emerging economies. When results of each classification are viewed separately, BofA Merrill is slightly ahead of J.P. Morgan in Developed Markets — the firms claim 145 and 144 spots, respectively. Barclays comes in third, with 96 positions. (See领导人：发达的市场).

当考虑新兴市场的覆盖范围时，订单会有所改变。BOFA再次在顶部，总共赢得115，但摩根士丹利跳到第二位，88个职位 - 超过信用瑞士，排名第三。（看领导者：新兴市场).

II调查通常还包括股权和固定收入类别的混合。当这些证券类型严格地观看总计时，BOFA Merrill带领股权阵容，193个位置;摩根士丹利确保第二层，赚取152个斑点;和J.P.摩根在第三名，146年。只考虑了固定收入类别，J.P. Morgan在一个名单上面，75个斑点 - 超过三分之一的分析师和团队被认为是最适合其各自部门的队伍。BOFA Merrill赢得67个职位，赚取2号，其次是巴克莱，第三，45。

In October the International Monetary Fund lowered its global real gross domestic product growth forecast for 2015, from 4 percent to 3.8 percent. Economists at BofA Merrill are slightly less sanguine. “We have global growth at 3.7 percent in 2015,” Browning reports. “The U.S. will really stand out. It has seen some significant healing — Washington has become less of a source of shocks — and we are looking for growth of 3.3 percent.”

该公司还预计U.K.经济复苏继续并预测该市场的扩大2.6％。“与欧洲其他地区的对比，我们预测的是1.2％的增长，”布朗宁增加。

J.P. Morgan正在制作类似的预测。“美国恢复正在进入2015年的实体基础，我们预测欧元区和日本的预测增加了3％的增长，或两倍的预测，”公司纽约全球研究总监Joyce张说。

However, this particular rising tide is not lifting all boats — yet, anyway. “Overall, 3.7 percent global growth sounds pretty good, but some countries are doing much better than others,” Browning notes. “Countries that are really distressed — Ukraine, Russia,Argentina,委内瑞拉- 很可能仍然保持一段时间。我们的日本沿比越1.6％的[增长]和中国的7.1％。澳大利亚将受到中国增长速度较慢的影响，在新兴市场，我们认为墨西哥会因其与美国有着强烈的联系而表现优越。

巴西她补充说，不久前，不久前是拉丁美洲的增长引擎，将以1％跛行。

Chang also sees difficult days ahead for many developing economies. “Emerging-markets growth is likely to struggle again in 2015, and we are forecasting growth at only 4.1 percent,” she says. “Much lower commodities prices are adversely impacting many of the major emerging-markets economies. We have [emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa] and Latin America growth below that of the U.S., at only 1.9 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. With China slowing and Brazil and Russia growing below 1 percent, India is the only bright spot in the金砖。“

该观点被广泛举行，致力于通过探针P获胜的决定性胜利君姬部长Narendra Modi和他的Bharatiya Janata派对最后五月. The BofA Merrill team expects India’s economy to expand by 6.3 percent in 2015, Browning says, while the IMF is marginally more optimistic. “India has recovered from its relative slump,” the Washington-based organization declared in an October report, when it affirmed its fiscal 2015 growth forecast of 6.4 percent.

欧元区的故事非常不同。产出在三大经济体 - 德国，法国和意大利 - 促使国际货币基金组织警告说，自4月以来，经济联盟陷入经济衰退的机会加倍，达到了38％。

In early December the European Central Bank reduced its GDP forecast from 0.9 percent to 0.8 percent for 2014 and from 1.6 percent all the way down to 1 percent for 2015. ECB president Mario Draghi disclosed that the policymakers were discussing the possibility of introducing a bond-purchase program but felt they needed more time to assess the impact of policies already implemented.

“The pressure for the ECB to do sovereign quantitative easing is clearly rising given the delayed recovery and concerns about deflation,” J.P. Morgan’s Chang explains. The central bank’s balance sheet stood at €2.05 trillion ($2.52 trillion) in late November, and that figure is likely to grow by €750 billion over the next two years, she adds.

布朗宁还认为一个节目在脱落中。“他们已经采取了一些相当不传达的政策 - 将较短的率达到负面领域，购买资产支持的债务 - 但到目前为止，这并不是非常有效的，”她指出。“GDP增长不到1％，失业率约为11％，通货膨胀正在下降。”

她补充说，某种君主量化宽松可能会在第一季度推出，并包括所有成员国的整个政府债务。

“It will be open-ended. They will raise their balance sheet by at least €1 trillion, thanks to the purchases,” Browning says. “Basically, they’ll be perceived as fiddling while Rome burns if they don’t do anything.”

积极的交流tions by both the ECB and the Bank of Japan, Chang says, will dampen any major rise in ten-year yields on U.S. Treasuries. “U.S. rates will rise but only gradually, and we forecast ten-year U.S. Treasury yields at 2.7 percent at midyear,” she predicts. (The yield on the benchmark note stood at 2.28 percent in early December.)

Memories of October’s rally, when a flight from risk helped push the yield to 1.86 percent, its lowest level in 18 months, “are also fresh, and interest rate dynamics could be similar to what occurred in 2004–’06, when Treasury yields remained range-bound for more than a year after the start of the cycle,” she says. “We see the peak of the tightening cycle only at the end of 2017, with the Fed funds rate near 3.5 percent.”

BOFA Merrill CREW呼吁美联储在9月份将其基准率提高25个基点 - 其目前的目标是0到0.25％ - 然后在此之后额外的25个基本点，勃朗宁说。“在金融条件下会有适度的紧缩，但全球经济应该能够承受那些涨价，考虑到其他中央银行的额外宽松，”她补充道。

在她看来，2015年的大故事将是从税率下降和企业盈利的环境变化，以提高速度和增加收入之一。“这意味着什么是我们在过去几年中看到的资产回报 - 两位数投资回报 - 将降低，可能在4到8％的面积上，”勃朗宁竞争。她补充说，标准普尔500指数仅在12月初的2,100岁以下的指数下降，这可能会在2015年终止2015年。

她想在新的一年里看到一个改变：回归所谓的动物精神，刺激公司领导人，将现金手头使用现金投资增长。“投资者没有任何钱，银行没有任何钱 - 公司拥有所有现金，”褐色Quips。“2015年，我们希望看到以促进增长的方式部署的现金。”