Russia Moves to ‘Controls Lite’ to Manage a Plunging Ruble

12月15日俄罗斯中央银行（CBR）以夜间650个基点徒步旅行缉获了世界的关注，以其重点利率为17％。震动措施旨在遏制遗漏卢布的卢布，在前一天的交易中抵御美国美元的11％。一个不太重要 - 尽管较少的公布 - 第二天出现，当俄罗斯总理德米特里梅德韦杰夫召集了十几名主要俄罗斯出口公司的酋长，向他的办公室放下了卢布的法律。

这hoarding of hard currency by oil and metals giants has been an underappreciated factor devaluing the ruble, analysts say. “With almost no supply of forex in the market other than the currency sold by the CBR, even a very modestly sized purchase order could have caused the ruble rout,” says Tatiana Orlova, the chief economist for Russia at Royal Bank of Scotland Group in London. In public remarks before the December 16 meeting, Medvedev urged the corporate bosses to start converting their earnings into rubles “rhythmically and stably.” To ensure they follow through, he demanded that daily reports be filed with the central bank and a task force headed by Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, the government’s senior economic overseer.

中央银行和总理的联合举措加上俄罗斯财政部（Minfin）的公告，它将销售高达70亿美元的税收，以暂时的税收，平静的市场。卢布在12月17日爆炸地展现了爆炸性，第二天在前一周的水平附近关闭。这卢布also rallied significantly against the dollar and euro12月20日和21日的周末。移动预示着一个关于管理卢布的新的多强战略，这是一个以前涉及到CBR的任务，其传统的提高汇率和销售货币储备。虽然投资者想知道俄罗斯是否会达到资本控制来代替这些市场机制，但本周的活动表明了一种更加细微的方法 - 一种“控制leity”，克里姆林宫希望驯服挥霍而不诉诸这些金钱禁运马来西亚强加了回应20世纪90年代后期的亚洲金融危机。

If exporters cannot be informally persuaded to repatriate earnings “rhythmically,” the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, is considering a bill that would require them to disgorge 50 percent, a regime that existed until 2006. Russian authorities are also thinking about limiting hard currency purchases by individuals. Retail savers increased the volume of hard currency and precious metals accounts by an ominous 13 percent in November, whereas ruble deposits declined slightly, according to CBR data. Other possible defensive measures include increased reserve requirements on open forex positions held by banks, or a惩罚性鸡巴税on currency trades, says Alexei Yegorov, a senior analyst at Promsvyazbank in Moscow.

这Finance Ministry is dangling attractive carrots at the end of these sticks for major Russian banks, suspects Per Hammarlund, chief emerging-markets strategist at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) in Stockholm. “It’s likely that Minfin is offering funds cheaply to some banks on the condition that they will buy rubles, and providing some guarantee that they won’t lose money,” he says.

俄罗斯似乎有能力行走一个技术专区，使用国家肌肉来支持卢布而不转向各种资本控制，这些资本控制会将其标记为马来西亚霉的长期金融禁止。“外国投资者只能担心可能影响利息和股息支付，直接投资和债务流量，”俄罗斯·斯里纳·斯坦利的摩根·斯坦利的股票，俄罗斯·斯坦利的股票流动，在研究票据中写道。她认为“强大的”转换要求对出口商进行了转换要求，同时还指出“许多国家限制了个人开放账户或在外汇贷款。”

到目前为止Hammarlund还批准的战略。”It is definitely a cause for optimism to see determined action by the Russian authorities, not just the CBR,” he says.

But this action, even backed by Russia’s $415 billion in currency reserves, will prove to be little more than a Band-Aid without shifts in the two fundamental conditions weakening the ruble, languishing oil prices and Western sanctions stemming from Moscow’s involvement in Ukraine, analysts say. “The measures will be sufficient for a few weeks, maybe a month or a month and a half,” writes Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at Alpari, one of Russia’s most popular online platforms for currency trading. “But we need to cure the illness, not arrest the symptoms.”

在12月18日年度年度新闻发布会期间，President Vladimir Putin暗淡的任何希望卢布危机将软化他在乌克兰的立场。他比较俄罗斯到熊的敌人“将总是试图连锁它。链接它后，他们会撕掉它的牙齿和爪子。“他说清楚他的立场，他表示，他预计俄罗斯的有效金融封锁，并警告他的国家在经济下降两年后准备。

中央银行州长Elvira Nabiullina预见的前列困难未来，但在较少的图形中。“卢布的弱点是俄罗斯经济适应新条件的信号，”她在她的戏剧性速度增加后告诉官方新闻代理。“我们真的必须学会生活在一个卢布的区域，算上我们自己的融资来源大部分。”

这CBR has forecast that Russia’s economy could contract by 5 percent next year if oil stays at its current level of about $60 per barrel for benchmark Brent crude — and that was before the interest rate hike in the middle of the night. Whereas Russian banks carry mostly short-term loans whose rates can be adjusted upward with their own borrowing costs, the jump is sure to increase nonperforming loans, which already hover at a dangerous 7.5 percent system-wide, SEB’s Hammarlund says.

“我们确实反映了在监督金融监管的CBR副州长Sergey Shvetsov之间的糟糕和非常糟糕，”Sergey Shvetsov之间的选择“Vedomosti.。“这可能对金融市场产生后果，我不会试图完全预测。”

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