随着投资者在世界上大部分时间缩短的世界缩短的世界，俄罗斯返回了市场风险叙事的最前沿。随着克里姆林宫继续争抢以限制货币暴跌的影响，将卢布上演了一个适度的反弹与美国美元和欧元。西方制裁. The Central Bank of Russia today announced a 30 billion ruble ($530 million) facility to prop up Trust Bank, the first bailout since last week’s passing of legislation to make funds available to prop up failing financial-sector firms. The bank will now be operated under the oversight of Russia’s Deposit Insurance Agency. Meanwhile, as price inflation rises in the politically sensitive food segment, President Vladimir Putin’s government continues to take actions, including an expansion on wheat export controls last week. Separately, in an interview with Thai media outlets over the weekend, China’s Foreign minister Wang Yi and Commerce minister Gao Hucheng pledged support for Russia, including a possible expansion of the existing currency swap between the nations announced in October. The question facing both investors and the citizens of Russia now is whether any of these actions will restore confidence in the ruble or if it will continue a downward spiral until an agreement is reached with the West.
公牛返回油。West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose in electronic trading sessions over the weekend as fighting in a western region of Libya that includes the port of Mellitah has led to suspended shipments and production shutdowns.商品期货交易委员会commitment of traders data released last week revealed a 14 percent increase over the prior week in net-long commitments in the WTI market by investors in futures.
美国家庭销售数据甲板上。Existing home sales for November will be released today with consensus forecasts for a seasonally adjusted slowdown for the month that will bring the annual pace to 5.2 million. October registered a softer expansion that September, when the overall pace of sales rose by a 2.6 percent for the month.
希腊选举进入下一轮。第二轮national elections in Greece, to be held tomorrow, is not expected to result in a definitive victory for any group, necessitating a third round on December 29. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras surprised the parliament on Sunday, offering a compromise of an early election in 2015 in exchange for backing of his government’s preferred candidate Stavros Dimas. The move was perceived by political analysts as a signal of how concerned the current government is over gains by antiausterity parties, such as the main opposition party Syriza.
投资组合视角：石油库存建筑继续，产品股票下一步—Michael Cohen, Barclays
Latest stock data from the International Energy Agency show OECD oil inventories building counter seasonally in October, by 1.4 million barrels, compared to the 31 million-barrel average draw over the past three years. In our view at Barclays, the trend of inventory builds is set to continue, as reflected in our oil market balances. We expect the market imbalance that has materialized in recent months to reach a high point during the first half of 2015. Our forecast indicates that at that time the call on OPEC should average 28.6 million barrels per day. With OPEC having stated its commitment to let the market balance naturally, market consensus is that the organization will continue to produce at or above its 30 million-barrel-per-day mandate — assuming no supply disruptions, no emergency cuts and no voluntary individual cuts). As a result, the market should experience a period of significant stock building, particularly during the first six months of the coming year, when the balances look the weakest.
Beyond commercial storage, China and India are filling strategic oil stockpiles, which should result in a strong prompt reduction in supplies. China has been active in the market this year and has further room to fill its storage capacity. Of its 343 million-barrel commercial capacity, 20 percent is left to fill, as is another 64.1 million barrels in strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) site capacity planned for completion next year. Once this is filled, it would top off China’s Phase 2 Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a total of 244.8 million barrels. India is looking to build up 38.9 million barrels of SPR next year. On average, if that quantity were filled in the coming year, it would add 470,000 barrels per day to crude demand.
在我们的观点中，库存建筑中的下一阶段是在精炼产品领域。在未来几周的过程中，我们预计物理原油市场将在较低粗原料上改善原油时，炼油厂积极竞标粗原油。应该出现储存原油的机会。但是，鉴于最终用户的需求仍然不足以吸收所有吞吐量，这可能仅导致原油转换为精制产品股票。一旦这些产品股票建成，炼油厂利润率将受到压力，促使炼油厂在竞标原油方面不太积极，这可能导致油价低于第一季度的水平。
Michael Cohen is head of energy markets research forBarclays在纽约。