Why the U.S. Will Resist Emerging-Markets Stress

Unexpectedly for many, this year began with a return to “risk-off” markets. For instance, therecent slowdown in China’s economic growth, as well as stress in many emerging-markets economies andcurrency markets，担心许多人担心更广泛的新兴市场危机可能会掌握。政治动荡和腐败指控土耳其几个高级官员，紧张的紧张局势俄罗斯’s recent standoff with Ukraineand seemingly confused reactions from U.S. and European leaders have done little to calm新兴市场, even if risk assets have bounced back in February and March from January lows. Attempts to draw parallels between the present situation and earlier emerging-markets crises are misguided, however, and, more to the point, stress exhibited by新兴市场is not likely to slow U.S. growth.

在购买力平价的基础上，新兴市场’ gross domestic product accounts for roughly half of overall global output. But developing economies contribute an even more outsize portion of the world’s GDP growth rate: about 70 percent this year by some estimates. Given the deceleration of emerging-markets economic growth, is growth in developed markets, particularly in the U.S., at risk? Ultimately, we do not believe so.

Let’s start with the potential effects of a Chinese slowdown. Export activity to China is largely concentrated within Asia (see chart 1). From the standpoint of the U.S. economy, only a modest portion of its exports head to China, and a fairly small proportion of export activity takes place with新兴市场更广泛地。事实上，美国向新兴市场出口总额为美国国内生产总值的5％，最近陷入最近的陷入困境的国家/地区的占总占总占总小额份额的国家。

这对美国的康复意味着什么？美国公司利润也没有大量依赖商业活动新兴市场。美国银行敞口新兴市场金融资产适度：占银行总资产的6％。暴露于最近湍流影响最大的国家甚至更低。例如，美国银行仅接触到乌克兰的125亿美元，这表明对银行资产价格的直接影响忽略不计。也就是说，如果乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的冲突是将其他国家溢出到该地区的其他国家或影响西欧的能源供应，那么经济影响可能会更加明显。

Further, we are struck by the overall improvement in emerging-markets fundamentals relative to their condition in past crises. For instance, many developing countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America, have much higher levels of foreign exchange reserves and considerably lower degrees of leverage, as measured by the external debt-to-GDP ratio, than in the past (see chart 2). Recent troubles stem in part from externalities derived from developed-market monetary policy responses to the financial crisis of 2008–’09.

特别是，在金融危机之后，美国的历史上低利率和许多利率较高新兴市场caused massive instances of short U.S.-dollar trading, in which capital flowed out of the U.S. and toward high-yielding emerging-markets currencies. During the third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, however, most of the world’s central banks were pursuing easy policies as well, so the short-dollar trade was not so obvious. When the Fed began discussions of tapering QE in May 2013, these capital flows reversed sharply, and emerging-markets economies with poor current-account deficits and deteriorating growth prospects began to feel stress. This process was described as a “currency war” by the Brazilian minister of finance in 2010, but perhaps a more apt description would be an adaptation of U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connally’s 1971 quip to foreign finance ministers: “It’s our monetary policy, but it’s your problem.”

事实上,在3月3日的一篇论文中,“Fed Tapering News and Emerging Markets,” Fernanda Nechio, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, suggests that there has been a significant divergence in how capital flows have affected various新兴市场and that fundamentals and policies of countries matter a great deal.

这让我们离开投资视角？毫无疑问，标题风险和波动性可能会在短期内继续扰乱新兴市场资产。事实上，我们认为选择货币，例如巴西，印度，印度尼西亚，土耳其和南非的货币，统称为“fragile five，“仍然易于易受折旧与美国美元的影响。改善了许多领域的估值水平和坚实基本面，即是时候进行谨慎的重新进入选择新兴市场, particularly in countries that are adequately funding current accounts and hold a deep pool of resources to mitigate market volatility and potentially slower economic growth. Liquidity and currency volatility will remain risks investors must weigh carefully, but there are opportunities for investing long-term capital in新兴市场, precisely because so many are currently rushing towards the exit.

Rick Rieder is chief investment officer of fundamental fixed-income portfolios forBlackRock。

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