Would you buy a bond yielding 10 percent that matures three months from now, or 13 percent paper that matures in August 2015? They both sound like an alluring proposition, except for the issuer: the sovereign state of Ukraine.
Street protesters in Kiev and other cities have faced off with the government of President Viktor Yanukovych for the past two months while Russia and the European Union have jostled behind the scenes for influence over the nation of 46 million on which they both border. As a result, Ukraine’s financial outlook has taken its own twists and turns. These leave the dwindling but dedicated band of emerging-markets bond investors guessing on how to play the unfolding story, and the rest of the world wondering whether the country may soon add default to its long list of challenges.
Ukraine faces a financial mess along with its political one. World prices for steel, its biggest export, have fallen by half since the Chinese economy started to slow in 2011. The national currency, the hryvnia, is pegged to the dollar and heavily overvalued as a result. Budget deficits are large and growing, exceeding 5 percent of gross domestic product in 2013. Successive governments, going back to the days of Yanukovych’s imprisoned archrival, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, have refused to meet the国际货币基金组织调整包的条款— including reducing massive subsidies on natural gas prices.
这已经离开了国家在越来越多的繁重的典型方面借用私人市场。在今年还款，外债总额为4000亿美元的约400亿美元。俄罗斯弗拉基米尔·普京总统承诺十二月中期的简单，如果短期就会解决。亚努科维奇拒绝与欧盟签署所谓的协会协议后两周，在他的人口中引发哗然，他前往莫斯科。在那里，普京总结宣布，俄罗斯将在未来两年内购买其新的乌克兰债券1000亿美元，并将其燃气价格降低到斗争邻居三分之一。俄罗斯于1月初购买了最初的30亿美元，并将市场焕发新高。据该国2015年8月的债券发行的收益率截至17％至10.75％Investing.com.
But Putin’s largesse could not buy peace in Ukraine. The death of at least two protesters in fighting with police on January 22 escalated the crisis anew, prompting anti-Yanukovych groups to occupy government buildings in as many as a dozen cities. Yanukovych responded by firing his prime minister, Mykola Azarov, and offering the post to Tymoshenko lieutenant Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who turned it down and demanded the president’s resignation instead. Ukrainian opposition leader and champion boxerVitali Klitschkowas offered the office of deputy prime minister. He reportedly rejected the offer and demanded the presidential elections be moved up to this year from 2015. An uneasy calm settled over the conflict in early February, with Yanukovych taking a few days off for alleged sick leave, then flying to Sochi for another visit with Putin just before the Winter Olympics got under way.
普京表示，他的金融救助优惠仍然存在。“关于您的问题，如果反对意见将审查我们的贷款和能源部门，我们是否会审查我们的贷款和能源部门的协议[在乌克兰]：不，我们不会，”俄罗斯领导人在1月28日在布鲁塞尔的欧盟领导人举行峰会后告诉记者。但是一秒钟，1月下旬安排的20亿美元的债券问题悄然搁置。俄罗斯金融部长安东桑·斯蒂蒙诺州暗示进一步的援助将与乌克兰向俄罗斯支付自然汽油的债务，他估计为27亿美元。“我们将履行我们向乌克兰承诺的东西，但我们希望乌克兰方面遵守它致力于致力的义务，”他告诉记者，而Yanukovych在Sochi会议普京。这些资格评级再次采取了投资者的信心，并对乌克兰2015年债券问题的收益率反弹至16％。
西方力量在慕尼黑2月1日在慕尼黑的2月1日在慕尼黑参加的慕尼黑会议上，将自己的财务报价放在俄罗斯和一些乌克兰反对派领导人。凯瑟琳阿什顿，欧盟的外交高代表，告诉这Wall Street Journal欧洲和美国正在努力为乌克兰的救助包，“不会少，”雅库维奇任命一个政治中立技术政府，将从国际货币基金组织风格的改革开始。向美国国务卿约翰·克里的友人又在现场，回应了“大胡萝卜”在作品中。
债券investors and analysts are divided on how they should react to this maelstrom of events. JPMorgan Chase & Co. recommended shifting to a “tactical overweight” on the latest market jitters in a research note released January 28. “The most likely scenario is that a relatively peaceful winding-down of protests will gradually emerge,” London-based JPMorgan analysts Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc and Jonny Goulden wrote. They also took Putin more or less at his word that Russia will continue its support, even in the face of political compromise. “Russia showed that it has a strategic interest in Ukraine when it agreed on the $15 billion bond deal and the gas deal,” they concluded.
A less optimistic view comes from Régis Chatellier, a global emerging-markets senior credit strategist in Société Générale’s London office. The Ukrainian opposition has “radicalized a great deal,” to the point where only Yanukovych’s ouster will be acceptable on the streets, he says. But that outcome may prove unacceptable to the silent majority of Ukrainians, concentrated in the country’s Russian-speaking east and south, who elected Yanukovych in 2010, not to mention to Russia itself, he adds. “The risk-reward calculation is not exactly very interesting at the moment,” Chatellier says.
乌克兰的更长持续时间债券交易比未来18个月在未来18个月的支付所需的比特更严格，表明在目前的宿舍超出了斗争的国家未来的一些信心。2017年的纸张成熟产生的10.2％相对较高。根据中央情报局的世界的概况，总公共债务仍处于可管理的37％的GDP。一些大胆的改革，特别是逐步逐步逐步淘汰了气体补贴，可以走向修理公共财政并挤出经济的扭曲。“乌克兰更多的是一个严重的流动性问题，而不是一个偿付能力问题，”洛杉矶基金会经理TCW集团主任董事总经理Blaise Antin说，董事长兼主任主任。
一种方式，金钱在解决当前的乌克兰危机时发挥着重要作用。