After a week that saw a bearish shift in sentiment among many market strategists and pundits, U.S. equities rebounded sharply yesterday, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained nearly 1.8 percent. While language in the notes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting released yesterday suggest that the Federal Reserve won’t be raising interest rates anytime soon, a positive for stock investors, the market’s sudden, large upward move appeared outsized to many observers. For now, it seems that U.S. investors have yet to make up their minds about the balance between good news domestically and grim news abroad. Corporate earnings appear likely to be a deciding factor for investors as many large-cap companies announce third quarter results in the coming weeks.
Bank of England stays the course.由于大多数市场观察者预计，英国的央行今天投票，将基准利率保持在0.5％。与此同时，英格兰银行宣布，它将其资产购买计划达到37.5亿英镑（60.7亿美元）。英格兰省长总督Mark Carney最近对过去一年的陡峭上涨的经济影响表示关切。
对欧洲的更多不好的消息。德国贸易数据8月份今天由联邦统计办公室释放到悬挂在欧盟最大经济体中的阴霾，出口报名为5.8％的收缩。这构成了自2009年以来出口的最大单月下降，远远低于共识预测。在昨天的宣布之后国际货币基金组织（IMF）在2014年和2015年减少了德国的GDP预测，柏林经济政策的政治辩论开始播放蒸汽。
日本机械订单显示出改进。在最近几周对日本的一系列令人失望的数据发布之后，今天早上的积极发展抵达。八月机械订单注册了4.7％的月度下降扩张和比预测浅的一年收缩。机械订单被认为是整体生产水平的重要指标，这表明工厂活动可能已在9月份找到底部。然而，鼓励的工业人数不太可能消除对恢复健康的较大问题，因为日本银行的非凡宽松措施未能抵消增加消费税对整体经济活动的影响。
今天的美国的数据不太可能移动市场。在美国初步失业索赔和8月份批发库存今天将被释放，没有对任一个数字产生重大的市场影响。在上周令人惊讶的8,000次令人惊讶的8,000之后，共识预测是在新失业的队伍中的边缘上升。上周的持续声称数字达到了23.98亿的恢复。与此同时，批发库存在7月份令人惊讶的减少后，批发库存在7月份令人惊讶的是，在农场和电脑设备的减少时大幅减少。
盈利季节在美国中央舞台阶段。铝制造商之后alcoa的利润昨天击败预测那earnings season is now in full swing. Companies reporting today include retailers Gap and Sears Holdings Corp. Shares of Sears tumbled yesterday on reports that a significant vendor had ceased to ship to the beleaguered department store chain and discount retailer on concerns over credit worthiness. Gap shares were down 10 percent in premarket trading after the San Francisco–based retailer announced that CEO Glenn Murphy would be stepping down in February and be replaced by Art Peck, president of its growth, innovation and digital division.
文件夹Perspective:小型和中帽股票到期- 尼古拉斯Ragone，Villicus Capital Group
最重要的技术指标是尖叫ing that small- and mid-cap stocks are bound for bigger losses. The small-cap iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) and SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) have both broken below their key 50-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, as well as below a trend line going back to 2012. The small-cap index has formed a bearish head-and-shoulders chart pattern, indicative of market tops, while the mid-cap benchmark has formed an equally bearish double-top pattern. If the two indexes fail to find support at current levels, the next level of chart support is at the 2013 September low — about 10 percent below current levels.
The combination of weakness in small- and mid-cap stocks and strength in large-cap stocks means that institutional investors and hedge funds — the bull market’s primary drivers since 2009 — are lowering their exposure to the more speculative areas of the stock market and gravitating to less volatile, more liquid stocks.
The first phase of the Federal Reserve’s plan to scale back quantitative easing is nearly done. With QE being eliminated, hedge funds and institutional investors will have less access to cheap money and therefore less firepower to push stocks higher.
根据Morningstar的说法，ishares russell 2000指数ETF在过去的十年里，每年平均返回每年7.8％。但在过去的三年里，它每年获得19.3％的人。这种超出历史平均水平的分歧是不可持续的，这表明小帽指数必须在未来几年内恢复平均值。SPDR S＆P MIDCAP 400也是如此。它的三年平均返回大概是十年平均水平的两倍。
Nicholas Ragone is founder and portfolio manager ofvillicus首都集团，纽约纽约的梅尔维尔梅尔维尔，替代投资管理公司迎合机构和高净值客户。