此内容来自:Portfolio

占领后:香港民主的未来

瘫痪香港的亲民主抗议反映了对城市领导人和北京的持续挑战的深度坐姿的政治和经济担忧。

安东尼不是你的典型示威者。这位26岁的是一名公开上市香港公司的财富顾问,与中国内地投资者在全球投资策略上致力于全球投资策略。然而,在近三个月这次秋天,安东尼和他的女朋友,蒙娜,在这个城市的一些最繁忙的街道上加入了数万名抗议者,要求更多地说,以批评北京强加的克制。

“我们希望香港的民主,”安东尼说,他要求他的姓氏不被公布,因为害怕雇主报复。他说,在11月初的一个晚上谈到了上班后加入了抗议活动,“我们厌倦了一项继续为几个富裕房地产大亨的利益提供服务的政府。”

For this bastion of unfettered capitalism, where the traditional pastimes have been getting rich and going shopping, such open dissent is astonishing. Since late August protesters have clogged the streets of Admiralty, the neighborhood adjacent to the central business district that’s home to the government’s offices, to protest China’s decision to effectively narrow the field of candidates for election as the city’s chief executive in 2017. At their peak in early October, the示威游行在街上赢得了多达25万人,除了关闭中央,金融区,几天并阻止了一些城市的主要通道周数。

到12月初,抗议表现出彼得出来的迹象。香港大学法律教授在内的占领中央运动的三个创始人,包括班尼亚义婷,转向警察,并在几个小时后发布。安东尼和蒙娜停止了抗议活动,担心运动失控。“我告诉我的大陆客户认为,香港是安全的,并且他们已经再次在这里做生意,”现在说道。“

12月7日,抗议者呼吁辞职的首席执行官梁春英,在获得法院命令清除两个剩余的抗议场所后,警方准备好“愤怒的抵抗”。结果不是必要的。警方迁至4天,警方搬进,逮捕了政府办事处以外的200多名召开抗议者,消除了阻止了哈尔科特路,该地区的主要通道的帐篷和障碍,并允许正常流量在两个月半月内首次恢复。

然而,即使路障下来,discontent behind the protests remains. Seventeen years after the city’s return to Chinese rule, the special administrative region, as it’s called, is facing its biggest social-political upheaval in decades. Not since the 1960s, when pro-China leftist students took to the streets to demand the end of British rule, has Hong Kong seen such public demonstrations. Discontent with Beijing’s growing influence had been growing even before August, with periodic demonstrations in the heart of Hong Kong. With the students behind the latest wave vowing to continue to agitate for political reforms and the authorities shunning any dialogue, fresh protests could erupt in the run-up to the 2017 elections. If not managed well, political instability could threaten China’s “one country, two systems” formula for Hong Kong, which grants the city self-rule, and diminish Hong Kong’s role as a global financial hub and China’s offshore financial center. It also could reverberate inside China, fanning social tensions on the mainland and provoking a fresh clash between Beijing and the West over human rights.

“强大的镇压是北京的下一件事,”戈登·昌,基于新泽西州的律师和作者中国的崩溃,2001年的书,蔑视腐败,臃肿的国家企业和过度扩张银行将导致中国经济和政治危机。“北京想要的最后一件事是为了抗议在中国传播。”

最近的抗议活动是经济和政治的根本,这些紧张局势表现出很少的抗衡迹象。不平等,这有助于在三年前帮助推动美国和西欧的占据运动,在香港这样的程度上飙升,即使是安东尼和蒙娜,甚至是为主要银行工作的人,也不高兴。“我们厌倦了天空高房价 - 价格如此之高,我们必须节省五年的两个收入只是为了提出未龙支付,”Mona最近说。

香港的青年今天与父母毫无疑问,东方首都研究公司的创始人和东方公司首都侧重于中国的独立香港公司。“I see it as a generational culture clash,” says Collier, who arrived in Hong Kong in 1997 as an Asia media analyst with Bear Stearns Cos. and from 2009 to 2011 served as the New York–based president of Bank of China International’s U.S. operations. “Years ago I heard young people declaring their intentions to get a job at no less a global bank than Goldman Sachs.” But with the rapid rise of China, many global firms are offering the best pay to mainland graduates who come to Hong Kong, he adds. “The Hong Kong kids, the same type of kids that a generation ago professed love for Goldman Sachs, are getting squeezed,” Collier says. “They’re saying, ‘The deal we are getting, this isn’t a good deal anymore. We want more input on the decision-making process.’”

Although the protests have not gained much evident support or sympathy on the mainland, perhaps because of Beijing’s strict censorship of any coverage, there is no question that President Xi Jinping is paying attention: The movement poses a potential challenge to the leadership of the Communist Party akin to the student uprising that was stamped out in天安门广场1989年6月4日。Among the protesters who continued to camp out around Central Government Offices in Admiralty and across the harbor in Kowloon’s working-class Mongkok district were radicals calling not only for direct elections in Hong Kong but actual independence for the city, as well as political reform in China and the end of Communist Party rule there.

Hong Kong officials have refused to hold meaningful talks with the protesters, saying their demands are unreasonable. In media briefings Chief Executive Leung urged the demonstrators to “go home and go shopping.” Hong Kong police have been careful, for the most part, not to crack down too forcefully on the city’s youth, eager to avoid tilting public sympathy back toward the protesters, as they did when officers used pepper spray to disperse demonstrators in October, or provoking criticism from the West. At a press conference with President Barack Obama during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in Beijing in early November, Xi said the Hong Kong demonstrators were breaking the law and warned foreign powers not to interfere, saying that “Hong Kong is exclusively China’s internal affairs.” Obama has expressed his support for “the rights of the people to express themselves” but insisted that Washington was not fomenting the protests.

The cost of violent repression would be steep for China, says Victor Shih, associate professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego, and an expert on China’s financial sector. Chinese companies have relied on Hong Kong as their primary offshore funding source, with nearly half of the 1,500 companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange based in China. Banks in Hong Kong have lent “hundreds of billions of dollars” to Chinese companies over the years, he adds. “Any violent resolution to the Hong Kong protests will cause the crashing of all of these assets, resulting in major losses to the Chinese elite and state enterprises,” says Shih, who was born in Hong Kong. “I suspect this has a lot to do with the cautious approach that Beijing has taken so far.”

由于抗议活动爆发,中国对香港的最大倡议一直是加深与城市的金融联系。11月在北京的当局在香港和中国之间的第一届直接股票交易中给了绿灯。上海港股股票连接已于11月17日推出的,允许香港投资者在上海证券交易所和中国投资者购买股票在香港购买库存,绕过现有的汇兑控制制度和配额限制。新的导管代表了中国跨境资本控制的放松升起的重大步骤。它的介绍惊讶许多香港专家,他们认为亲民主抗议已经脱轨了长期承诺的自由化。

北京的证券律师和中央政府经济事务顾问表示,中国希望向世界发出明确的信息:“我们想告诉香港人 - 和国际社会 - 我们想要的maintain ‘one country, two systems,’ a system that allows Hong Kong people to rule Hong Kong.” The launch of the Stock Connect program, he adds, indicates that China wants to give Hong Kong more rights and ensure its long-term prosperity. “There is political meaning here in the timing, and I can assure you there will be more benefits to come,” Guan says.

其他人则更怀疑北京的意图。中国在短期和中期对香港采取了一种“轻柔、温和”的态度,但当局可能会逐渐加强对长期的控制,以防止未来的抗议活动或政治运动失去控制,Steve Vickers说。当该市处于英国统治之下时,他领导了香港警察局的犯罪情报局,现在经营着他自己的香港风险管理咨询公司史提夫维克斯& Associates。

Before the Occupy Central movement, China’s security services, although present in Hong Kong, adopted a low profile. “It seems clear now that everything has changed in this respect and that far greater focus and resources will be committed to Hong Kong by both the State Security and Public Security bureaus,” Vickers says. “The tightening of China’s security apparatus means living in Hong Kong will gradually become more like living in any other mainland city.” Among the areas likely to be affected are academia, the legal profession and the judiciary, and Hong Kong’s currently freewheeling media, he says: “Sadly, in the bigger picture, all that the students and protesters have achieved, apart from bringing attention to themselves and their cause, is to score an own goal.”

作者张预测,由于担心“民主传染”,中国将对香港施加更坚定的控制权。他指出,一些上海居民最近在城市中心拍摄了人们的广场,举行了对香港学生的支持表达支持,然后在线发布了这些照片。当局迅速删除照片,几乎没有收到媒体报道。张说,在一个社交媒体张贴帖子中,一些中国人要求投票权 - 并列出他们的名字,敢于逮捕当局,召开。占据也启发了大陆公民举办小规模的杂志示威。张说,当局在广东,广东,湖南和江西省省的百万示威者拘留了一百多名示威者,以及在北京,重庆和上海的城市。由于中国当局尚未披露任何此类逮捕,他的索赔无法确认。

The protests could have a negative economic fallout on Hong Kong, some analysts say. The scale of the unrest has tarnished the city’s image among mainland investors and could cause some of these players to look to do business in other offshore centers in the region.

“占领运动将是在香港的拖累,因为它越来越清楚的政治不稳定将成为一个问题,即海东国际证券集团的香港首席经济学家和研究负责人,the offshore arm of China’s second-largest brokerage firm, Haitong Securities Co. “Occupy will give the edge to Singapore, where political stability is a constant.”

新加坡的官员和商界领袖不愿意将自己注入香港的政治辩论中。很明显,当涉及到这类问题时,最好由香港人自己解决,”新加坡证交所(Singapore Exchange)销售和客户负责人Chew Sutat表示不管怎样我们都看不到。我们认为一个充满活力的香港市场对亚洲和新加坡的投资者都有好处。”

恒生指数,9月4日达到了五年高的25,317号,到该月底下跌了10%以上,尽管恢复了谦虚,但在12月初持续下跌约5%。然而,到目前为止,全球银行家表示抗议似乎似乎没有伤害香港的常设金融中心。“政治不稳定存在增加风险溢价,”高盛集团香港首席亚洲战略家蒂莫西·米博说。“令人鼓舞的是,很快看到香港股市耸耸肩。到目前为止,似乎没有对经济的政治不稳定的传播。“MoE指出,过去几个月对零售业有一些影响,但增长似乎没有过度影响。2014年前三季度的经济率达到2.4%,2013年的2.9%下降,但2012年的1.5%。分析师之间的共识是增长,2015年谦虚地加速2.8%。

亲民主情绪已经建设在香港一段时间。反对派群体于2014年早些时候上演了一系列集会,6月29日约有80万人参加了一个模拟的民意调查,旨在向当局展示香港居民能够进行独立选举的当局。

The immediate trigger for the Occupy Central protests occurred on August 31, when China’s National People’s Congress laid down ground rules for Hong Kong’s first direct election of its chief executive, in 2017. The city’s leader had been selected by an election committee handpicked by Beijing, but in 2006 the Chinese legislature decided that the election a decade hence would be done by universal suffrage. In its latest ruling the Congress set conditions for that election, saying candidates would have to be approved by a committee of 1,200 selected by Beijing.

该宣布在香港引发了一个抗议,许多人有关候选人的审查,就像其自决权侵权行为。香港大学的泰国占据了占领的中央运动来迫使政府退回并允许不受约束的选举。他的努力将学生带入街头的数万人。学生领导人包括Joshua Wong Chi-Fung,这是一个无聊的高中学生,其热情的歌剧似乎与他的青年(他在秋季抗议活动期间转了18岁)。两年前,黄先生成立了学术界,一群高中生成功地击败了北京努力,努力对香港学校施加了一项亲中的“爱国主义”课程。他袭击了平等的活力计划的选举规则。

“自1997年香港回归中国以来,我诞生后不到一年,这座城市的人民已经混乱了,并通过一个政治制度来摧毁了富裕和联系良好的手中的动力,”during a recent media briefing, repeating comments he’d made in an op-ed published in the纽约时报。“我们中的许多人,尤其是我一代人的人,希望在北京多年的承诺之后,我们最终会有自由选举。相反,在8月下旬,北京裁定香港的寡头政治将持续负责。普遍的选举权成为一个破碎的梦想。“

抗议者最初享有基于广泛的支持,但随着示威活动拖累周数并扰乱交通和商业,公众情绪转移。香港大学11月19日发表的民意调查报告称,绝大多数受访者 - 83% - 希望占据抗议活动停止;超过两三分之二表示,政府应该清除抗议场所并允许交通恢复。泰国和两个同事于12月初向警方投降,称这一运动正在失去其效力。学生领袖王先生罢工,断言这是让当局与抗议者谈判的唯一途径,但他在四天半后抛弃了罢工。

反对派和抗议领导人目前在前进的方向上分裂。泰说他希望学生们将加入他和其他人在形成政治舞台的力量。然而,许多学生发誓要找到努力继续民主的努力。“我们将回来,”在警方于12月11日搬到抗议者海军部营地中读了几个迹象。

虽然政治启发了抗议运动,但不满在很大程度上植根于日益增长的经济差异。Paul Schulte.谁担任自己的香港独立股权分析公司,舒德研究国际。在过去十年中,这一房地产价格上涨是社会骚乱最大的驾驶员之一,舒尔特在香港生活十多年,以前曾担任雷曼兄弟控股的首席亚洲战略家野村国际。虽然华盛顿的遗产基金会始终如一地将香港1号纳入经济自由,但攀登房地产价格使香港中产阶级难以保持和分享城市的增长财富。

Hong Kong’s ever-deepening ties to China have brought a bonanza to the city’s finance, trade, retail and real estate industries. Land prices are effectively set by the government, which controls the supply released for development. In recent years prices have soared to levels that prohibit all but the wealthiest developers from bidding on prime plots. The city’s ten richest men, led by developer and business magnate Li Ka-shing, made most of their money in real estate in the past two decades. They control a combined fortune of about $130 billion, according to福布斯杂志。

自2003年7月以来,房价有两倍以上,当爆发严重的急性呼吸综合征或SARS,被控制在控制下,结束了一个主要的财产震撼。根据美国咨询公司统筹的360个城市的一项调查,2014年1月,该市被认为是世界上第四年的第四个直接年度最不适合的住房。该调查将香港的中位房价汇价超过402万港元(516,000美元),或约15倍的家庭年收入270,000港元。调查发现,香港的住房在香港发现,相对于收入大约三倍,而不是在包括新加坡和东京在内的亚洲同行,这几乎不断讨价还价。住房太贵了,约有53,000人在城市的贫民窟堆叠在彼此之上的钢笼中,这是一个古老的现象,抗议者经常引用这座城市不平等的辉煌典范。

In contrast to the housing boom, real wages in Hong Kong have increased by a total of just 3.2 percent in the past decade. As a result, Hong Kong’s Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, has risen from 0.518 index point in 1996 to 0.537 point in 2011, according to the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. That’s among the highest rates in the world for a developed market. The U.S., for example, saw its Gini coefficient rise from 0.477 to 0.486 during the same period.

“这是一个时间炸弹准备好长期以来,”舒尔德说。“中产阶级被挤出经济馅饼,其梦想使其正在消失。政策应该有一个基本的转变来帮助大学生,对老年人的医疗保健。“

Vickers, who advises many global corporate clients and financial institutions, expects Beijing to work with the Hong Kong government to push reforms to address the growing gap between rich and poor, which lies at the heart of public discontent. He is not optimistic, however, that Beijing will give in to protesters’ demands for democracy.

Hong Kong never had democratic elections under British rule. Every governor after 1841, when the U.K. seized the territory after beating China’s Qing Dynasty in the Opium Wars, was appointed by the British monarch. It wasn’t until 1985 that the colonial authorities allowed legislators to be elected through so-called functional constituencies, or groups that represented professions and industries approved by the government. Voting that involved the general population didn’t come until 1991, when a few of the city’s 70 legislative seats were decided by open elections.

在香港回归中国九年后的2006年,全国人民代表大会批准了该市将直接选举产生的立法委员人数扩大到30人的计划,并承诺在2017年引入行政长官选举。中国政府顾问关说,中国2017年选举的计划“远比目前的制度更加民主”。

中国人学会了英国人的一些关键课程。For most of Hong Kong’s 150 years of colonial history, the U.K. ruled the entrepôt through a group of elites that included the heads of various large conglomerates: the Hongs, some of which remain powerful today, including HSBC Holdings, John Swire & Sons (H.K.) and Jardine Matheson Holdings. The Chinese, in turn, have relied on Hong Kong tycoons, mostly property magnates, chief among them Li, whose family controls Cheung Kong (Holdings), a conglomerate with interests in property, retail, infrastructure and telecoms; the Kwok family, which controls Sun Hung Kai Properties; the Cheng family, which controls New World Group; Lee Shau-kee and family, who control Henderson Land Holdings; and shipping and property magnate Tung Chee-hwa, who served as Hong Kong’s first chief executive upon the city’s return to Chinese rule in 1997.

当被问及占领抗议时,所有主要的产权和公共关系董事都拒绝发表评论。只有董朝在公共场合响起:在11月10日的新闻发布会上,他宣布他正在形成一个探索选举和社会改革的基础,包括为中产阶级建立更实惠的住房的建议。他说他欢迎年轻人和“民主党”加入他的咨询委员会。

香港官员承认抗议活动使他们措手不及。在十月初登机飞往国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会之前,香港财政司司长John Tsang在他的博客上写道,他睡得不好,政府对“史无前例”的抗议没有“经验或心理准备”。他最近一直对这个话题保持沉默,只是说,如果抗议活动延长,就会损害香港作为金融中心的形象。

风险顾问维克斯说,对于在香港经营的外国企业来说,继续存在的关键因素是维护法治。他说,尽管没有证据表明外国企业因为占领运动而离开,但抗议活动实际上已经使香港政府边缘化。他说,北京在香港的联络处在占领运动期间起了作用。“这是根本的分水岭变化,”维克斯说当学生们为民主和更大的独立而战时,他们却带来了完全相反的结果。”

香港官员拒绝批准访谈或回应问题亚博赞助欧冠关于危机及其对城市的影响。当地居民无法帮助,但请注意,他们的许多顶级官员经常穿过边境到深圳或飞往北京,以与中国高级领导人会面。政府发言人Terry Wong表示,金融服务局局长KC Chan,无法批准面试,因为他“前往北京”。

香港的政治制度呈现与台湾的鲜明对比。1949年共产党革命后,岛上逃离了中国,成为中国前执政党的避风港,国民党。台湾的领导人在20世纪90年代开始了政治自由化,允许在1996年形成反对党和启动民主选举。

在那种赛车民主中的政治是一个证明,这不是每个认为自己中国人的人都喜欢共产党及其在内地的一方统治。Opposition to President Ma Ying-jeou’s policies of forging closer trade ties with China, apparently fueled by news of the student uprising in Hong Kong, caused the Kuomintang to lose six mayors’ seats in elections on November 30, prompting Ma to resign as party chairman. Taiwanese voters remain highly suspicious of China, which refuses to renounce the threat of a military takeover of the island for the sake of “unification of the motherland.”

Beijing is not insensitive to opposition views in Hong Kong, says government adviser Guan. China’s leaders have “heard the protesters and opposition voices loud and clear,” he says. “If the elections system we propose for Hong Kong is successful, it is even possible that such democratic elections could be expanded to other major cities in China in the future.” China’s economic reforms started on an experimental basis, and political reforms will also unfold as a gradual process, he adds. “Rather than working against China,” Guan says, protesters “should work with us to step-by-step implement political reforms.”

然而,香港的民主活动家持怀疑态度,并表示承诺的政治改革太慢了。“中国应尊重香港人的愿望,发展民主,保障个人自由,人权和法治,”香港民主党的主要支持者的主要支持者,“最近,香港民主党主席马丁·李某”

Protesters are seeking better representation first and foremost, says professor Steve Tsang, head of the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham in the U.K. “It is the lack of democratic accountability that is allowing the ever-increasing social inequality to take hold in Hong Kong,” says Tsang, who grew up there. “It also makes the middle classes in Hong Kong feel disempowered and frustrated, which is why they are taking actions outside of the existing political structure.”

首席执行官梁显然同意,虽然他的评论发炎而不是安息舆论。梁先生表示,在对外媒体的采访中表示,向学生对民主的要求有效“看到较贫穷的人在香港主导”政治。

“如果它完全是一个数字游戏和数字代表,那么显然你会与香港的一半人交谈,他每月赚取不到1,800美元的香港,”梁说。尽管他缺乏公共关系娴熟,但行政长官似乎有中国领导人的支持。在11月在北京主办的APEC峰会期间,习席总统表示,中国“充分肯定并支持”梁努力维持社会秩序,维护法治。

尽管有艰难的谈话,但靠近香港政府的消息人士称,高级顾问正在与北京密切合作,以使政策更改举行竞标者的趋势。

2017岁的前香港安全负责人雷吉纳耶夫曾建议学生在1200位提名委员会中选出代表,他们将选出参加这次选举的候选人。与此同时,前首席执行官Tung正试图支持支持他恢复在香港建造更多经适房的计划。早在1997年,董建华就任时就提出,10年内每年建设8.5万套公寓,其中私人开发商3.5万套,政府房管局5万套。房地产大亨的公开反对迫使他搁置了这一计划。

目前涉及前香港酋长汇的贿赂案,他从2005年到2007年担任,揭示了香港的TYCOONS挥动权力如何,其人口为720万被挤进城市地区,只占15%的城市地区territory’s 426 square miles.

根据检察官的指控和审判课程,汇源曾担任郭家族鸿凯物业的顾问 - rivals李立孔(控股)作为香港最大的开发商 - 在成为首席秘书之前。他据称为他的服务赚了数百万美元,并没有公开揭示他与公司的关系,因为他应该这样做。

“Hong Kong has been run like a medieval city-state,” says Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent research analyst who served as Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for Asia from 1997 to 2006. “A business elite at the top has the dominant voice on how wealth and income are created and distributed. Hong Kong’s system encourages people to make money with maximum economic freedom and low taxes.”

Chinese authorities will no longer rely only on the tycoons and the Hong Kong government as their primary sources of information in the city, says Chinese government adviser Guan. “There will be an effort to reach out to the various other interests in the community,” he says. It’s hard to see those efforts appeasing the protesters’ concerns any time soon, though.

虽然中国的政治影响是示威者的IRE的主要目标,但分析师表示,该国的经济和经济影响是以加剧社会紧张局势加剧的方式影响香港。

银行家和分析师表示,中国大规模的财富流出是过去三年香港房地产价格翻番的主要因素。中国政府对2008-2009年的全球金融危机做出了回应,推出了一项涉及4万亿元(5850亿美元)银行信贷的刺激计划。坊间证据表明,部分资金最终落入香港。

Wealthy mainlanders have bought a lot of property in the city’s Mid-Levels and on the Peak, two of the priciest districts in Hong Kong. Properties in those neighborhoods can sell for as much as $100 million, and it is not unusual for these transactions to be paid in cash up front. Wealth adviser and onetime Occupy sympathizer Anthony says all of his clients come to Hong Kong “loaded with cash” to invest in a wide range of assets, including property.

“许多腐败的金钱被洗钱就会被洗钱,”中国工商银行的退休银行家表示,与政府密切联系,他就匿名的条件讲话。“对于许多腐败的官员和富裕的中国人来说,香港是公园其财富大量资金的理想场所。众所周知,这些富人的个人不仅仅购买一套公寓,而是许多单位在香港最昂贵的房产。“

中国媒体最近报道说,多达1万亿元人民币(约占2009年出台的刺激计划的四分之一)可能最终落入了腐败官员的口袋,部分收益可能通过在香港注册的银行“在海外洗钱”。金融业专家Shih说,中国领导人的大部分子女已经把大量的家庭财富转移到了香港,这是中国最富有的人选择的私人银行中心。

Senior Chinese officials realize that the situation in Hong Kong is complex and cannot be resolved entirely through political repression, according to the former senior banker; he doesn’t believe President Xi ever thought about sending in troops or police to crush the student protests. Xi will not rescind the August 31 decision by the National People’s Congress, the ex-banker adds, but he may consider compromising with protesters’ demands and allowing opposition voices into the candidate-vetting committee — and possibly even allow the opposition to field a candidate of its own in 2017.

西安的父亲西中勋担任广东党主任,并帮助前派拉蒙领袖邓小平1979年创造了深圳经济区。“夏天在深圳度过了很多时间,并良好地了解香港,”前银行家说。“xi在他的心里知道他必须开始深入改革或冒着看到党的堕落的风险。”

在共产党的密室,顶部officials have begun a debate about ways to promote democracy, says government adviser Guan. “There is serious talk about political reforms,” he says, “and they include expanding village-level elections to higher levels of the Chinese government.” After crushing student protests in 1989, Deng took political reforms that he himself had proposed off the table and focused instead on economic and financial reforms. Since the late 1990s, however, China has allowed the elections of some village chieftains. Those experiments have remained at the village level, however.

中国渐进式营地的官员已经开始倡导一种形式的“互联网民主”,这些人将在基层级别使用舆论民意调查,通过通过中国主要互联网网站提供优惠机制来影响政策决策。

“西方以代表性民主为荣,”银行家,金融集团中信集团公司曾担任中国证券监督管理委员会的高级政策制定者。“但我告诉你,代表民主也充满了腐败。在美国,在其他所谓的民主国家,政治游说是一个万亿美元的泥炭基金行业。我们在中国将实施政治改革,但我们希望一个不太容易腐败的系统。“仍然,中国的互联网民主“不会成为西方认为民主的民主”,“前CSRC官员表示,任何使用在线民意调查只会作为政策制定者的”发声委员会“。

中国的政治改革仅仅是一个尚处于起步阶段的想法,北京是否会进行任何重大的自由化还很不清楚。香港不耐烦的年轻人也会等待,最好的办法是以一种缓慢的速度进行改革,这也是值得怀疑的。有一件事似乎是肯定的:政治动荡似乎将长期持续下去。

“所有的年轻人都在战斗,因为他们热爱香港,”财富顾问安东尼说。有些人甚至可能准备为香港而死。

更多地获得更多新兴市场

跟随艾伦成在推特上@acheng87