日常议程:Omnibus Bill and Partisan Politics

In a late-night session, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a $1.1 trillion spending bill that will now go to the Senate for approval. The bill, which keeps federal government agencies funded through September of next year, was of particular interest for investors for reasons going beyond a partisan impasse. Language included in the legislation will ease key restrictions on derivatives trading by banks required under theDodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010despite fierce opposition from key Democratic lawmakers. In the Senate, Democratic leaders including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are expected to fight the inclusion of the provisions in the final draft. Under the new language, large banks will be able to book swaps contracts directly within federally guaranteed entities, rather than using uninsured subsidiaries as prescribed by the rules enacted in the wake of the credit crisis. The debate over the inclusion is likely to see Wall Street’s influence in federal government policy return to the spotlight in political media coverage.

Data out of China show mixed picture.Figures from中国’s National Bureau of Statistics for industrial production in November were released today with a headline output index level below consensus forecasts at 7.2 percent above the same month in 2013. Retail sales for the month modestly beat expectations, while urban fixed investments moderated slightly. With data in aggregate continuing to indicate a slowdown in overall activity in the country, recent liquidity injections by thePeople’s Bank of China（PBOC）根据银行编制的数据，上个月在新的私营部门贷款中刺激了一个上涨的贷款，希望仍然可以通过12月份的巨额反弹来满足今年的国内目标总体目标。

Abe leads in Japanese polls.民意调查显示Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe在本周日的特殊议会选举中，在领先地位的自由主义民主党领先地位。10月份日本的工业产业生产较高的利润率比经济学家预期的季节性调整率高于上个月的0.4％。

欧洲的工业产出减缓。Euro zone industrial output figures for October released today by Eurostat registered below consensus forecasts at 0.1 percent for the month and 0.7 percent year-over-year. The accompanying report for the 18-nation region indicated contractions in France,Spain和Italy在跌落作为衰落的主要驱动因素的期间。

Oil demand forecast slashed.An International Energy Agency report released today revised estimates for 2015 global oil demand to more than 200,000 barrels per day lower than estimates published in November. The Paris–based agency also anticipates increased production in non-OPEC nations that will continue to place pressure on prices in the coming quarters. West Texas Intermediate crude future contracts dropped below $60 per barrel in trading this morning, helping to drive the Russian ruble to a record level of 57 per U.S. dollar despite theCentral Bank of Russia’s rate increase this week.

U.S. data releases today to lend insight into holiday shopping season.October producer price index levels are to be released this morning, with consensus forecasts for a marginal contraction in the headline index and a modest rise in core inflation. Separately, initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for December is expected to indicate an improved mood among shoppers.

Portfolio Perspective: Chinese Policymakers Okay With Disrupting Markets to Support Economy—Mary Catherine Sinclair, Strategas Research Partners

Late last month, Chinese policymakers lowered the one-year benchmark deposit and lending rates, weakening the yuan and starting Chinese equities on a move meaningfully higher, up roughly 20 percent since November 21. And this week, policymakers took a step further, announcing that bonds rated below AAA would no longer be accepted by the China Securities Depository & Clearing Corp. as collateral for local government short-term loans. China’s yuan and equities fell precipitously on the news. Only the most recent step aimed at reducing risky debt in the market and reining in中国’s shadow banking system，新的地方政府监管表明，没有部门免于财政改革的痛苦。去年，银行遭到流动性紧缩。现在，他们的利润正在通过较低的利率挤压。市场参与者投注今年早些时候在今年早些时候燃烧的持续实力的人民国民党和地方政府正在被迫找到更加合理的资金来源，如新兴市债券市场。十一月的通货膨胀速度增长至1.4％（不包括食品和能源），离开房间 - 以及更多货币刺激的需求。政策制定者走紧绳，试图管理经济，同时仍然享受整体扩张，仍然需要一些帮助。

玛丽凯瑟琳诺克莱是经济研究的董事战略研究伙伴在纽约。