目前，目前，投资者可以宽恕每个策略师和Pundit的疲惫，指出夏天通常是全球市场的轻型交易和疲劳波动。确实，暑假是发达国家几乎普遍的概念，但随着手机，平板电脑，笔记本电脑和其他Techy小工具的出现，没有人被迫留出信息循环，而是故意选择成为所以。是的，许多投资组合经理都在海滩上;然而，幸福的无知只是希望思考。
目前市场风险叙述分为两broad categories. There are the heavily anticipated prospects of tightening U.S. Federal Reserve policy and slowly rising rates and yields in the near and mid-term as well as, in the long-term, of a generational shift in the direction of global bond markets. There is near-universal consensus that this will happen. But the timing and trajectory are anything but clear. Also playing into macro concerns are military conflicts, natural catastrophes — and even the Ebola epidemic — present an array of variables that are possible to analyze but impossible to use as a base for concrete investment conclusions. Friday’s equities rebound in the U.S. has been complemented by a recovery in other global stock markets, but not by a corresponding move in bonds and currencies that would suggest a sincere return to risk-on.
中国经济数据。消费者和生产者通货膨胀指数水平周末在北京释放的7月展示了收银台上涨0.1％的货物成本。这使得一年同年的阅读平面为2.3％ - 仍远低于政府目标的3.5％。每2013年7月，政治敏感的食物SubIndex的增加3.6％，尽管猪肉，一个国家主食，但仍然比6月阅读更软。生产者的价格在7月份签约每月和同年年度。单独释放过夜的财政数据部表示，在中央和地方各级政府支出的审核。
作为收益季节持续的能源交易继续。2014年第二季度2014年第二季度的美国公司包括Aramark，Priceline Group和Sysco。基于休斯顿的油气公司Kinder Morgan在周末宣布了440亿美元的买断优惠，将看到三个相关的公共实体，Kinder Morgan Energy Partners，Kinder Morgan Management和El Paso Pipeline Partners，巩固到单一公司。拟议的股票和现金交易将创建一个大约1400亿美元的综合企业，构成第二大U.Siment Sector Merger。
地缘政治风险继续对投资者情绪的影响。虽然在加沙的停火和俄罗斯部队钻的一箱与乌克兰的边界有助于减少恐惧，伊拉克的情况继续在周末继续恶化，因为美国撤回了由Nouri Al-Maliki领导的政府。
Correlating global equity risk。在伊利诺伊州的苏利诺伊州的金融信息服务提供商Asbury Reach in Abury Rewore的John Kosar John Kosar公布，John Kosar致以迫使美国股票纠正可能无法完成。他指出，德国DAX指数和标准普尔人和标准普尔500指数之间的短期价格波动的相关性最近几周仍然存在强烈阳性。科萨尔认为，这种强有力的关系表明了反应性市场心理学，任何特定地理的坏消息都迅速流血到全球市场。
埃尔多安赢了土耳其。土耳其总理RECEP Tayyip Erdogan，其AK Parti于2002年底前来电力，赢得了该国首次直接的全国大选，总统举行的总统选举，占52％的投票，足够的余量来防止违约投票。Erdogan has recently vented frustration with both economic and defense partners including fellow NATO member the U.S., as the situation in Syria and Iraq, which border Turkey to the south, deteriorates and Russia strengthens its presence in the Black Sea, which runs along Turkey’s northern length.
投资组合视角：弱点会有弱点-亚当格里姆，沃克利顾问
Weakness in Europe leads to more weakness as major indexes and member nations collapse into sharp downtrends. We no longer see significant support for Europe on any further rally leg, and see potential shorts in former leaders. Yes, it is possible we could see a sharp recovery and Europe sitting at a global rally forefront. But there is no strong statistical support for such a call. We have moved to an in-line expectation for Europe and market weights on most European Monetary Union member nations.
We do not see a clear global leader at this time. It is easy to be misled by short-term fluctuations. If we were to adjust expectations every time a region gave a small signal, we’d be running back and forth all over the globe every week. Obviously, this is no responsible way to manage capital and risk. This is a time to step back, let the market take shape and realize that sometimes, there simply is no clear statistical edge. The bottom line is that we are likely in a noisy period of consolidation. Rotation of leadership is to be expected — clarity is not to be expected.
亚当格姆斯是纽约北约的匹兹福德的管理合伙人和首席投资官Waverly Advisors.。