当英国获得力量，英镑爬得有多高？

只要任何措施，英国经济就有最近一直在泪水。The U.K.’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, putting it on track to grow 3.2 percent this year, one of the highest rates in the developed world. The pound sterling has kept pace, rising more than 11 percent in the past year against the U.S. dollar. The question on foreign exchange traders’ minds: How high can the pound go?

最乐观的预测之一来自巴克莱银行，将其持续升值至1.71美元，从8月中旬到8.67美元。但其他货币战略家在今年晚些时候看到蒸汽蒸汽，特别是与美元相比。

主要的司机纯强度一直是利率。英国州长省长克里尔尼震惊市场在他的年度大厦众议院讲话中，据美国银行致辞，即央行从0.5％提高到2009年以来，它仍然比预期更快。分析师预计英国明年将开始这样做，但在卡尼的讲话后，他们向这一秋天提出了预期。这将使U.K.经过多年刺激措施后，第一个十年的兴趣率为2008年级经济衰退后。

投资者涌入currencies with the highest return, notes Marvin Barth, European head of forex research at Barclays. “The U.K. economy has been doing very well,” he says, pointing out that after six quarters of growth it is now back above precrisis levels.

When Carney took over as BofE governor last year, he championed quantitative easing — buying bonds to drive down interest rates — and offered dovish forward guidance on interest rates, warning traders directly that the central bank probably wouldn’t raise rates as soon as they anticipated in 2015. His abrupt change of direction in May caught markets off guard.

然后，在8月份，Carney在季度通胀报告中困惑的事项注意到“英国工资增长”非常薄弱“。这导致了对市场思考预期率上升时机的掉头。

Still, Barclays also sees signs that the U.K. economy may be rebalancing away from consumption toward other sectors, Barth says: “In the last quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of this year, there was a tantalizing growth in net exports.” Such measures as the rate of investment growth are also probably at the top of the list in the G-10, he adds.

哥本哈根哥本哈根州萨克索银行的外汇战略负责人表示，该英镑今年可能会略微推进欧元，因为欧洲央行已经设定了较低的利率，甚至暗示它将使用量化宽松作为一个tool to reduce the euro’s value. He sees the euro finishing the year at 78 or 79 British pence, pretty much where it is today, and sterling at $1.62. “Everyone is falling over themselves anticipating the Bank of England’s removal of accommodation and the normalization of interest rate policy,” Hardy says. “It justified some degree of sterling strength, but I think it was overdone. I think sterling is overvalued versus the dollar for sure.”

这也是国际货币基金组织的观点，该基金于7月底发布了英国经济的报告。虽然它赞成U.K.增长，但报告称，镑兑美元汇率约为5％至10％。

Christian Apelt, a Frankfurt-based currency analyst at Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen, says the pound has already begun to turn lower, a process he expects to continue throughout the autumn. He forecasts that it will fall to $1.58 by the end of the year. “I think sterling is turning because of the discussion in the United States about a more restrictive Fed policy,” Apelt says. “The Bank of England story is already priced into sterling.”

巴克莱的巴特同意美元可能会在英格兰银行提出第一次利率后开始欣赏英镑。他说，原因是，在U.K的情况下，英国中央银行可以逐步增加率，而美联储董事会将不得不更加积极地提升自己的税率，因为它等待了。

One wild card in the U.K. is the run-up in housing prices, which has put the government under pressure. “Sterling has been supported by a ridiculous housing bubble, in London especially,” Saxo’s Hardy says. “Capital flows into the U.K. to be parked in real estate, where the carrying costs are zero — no property taxes — and the government pursues a policy of not allowing building.”

BOFE宣布宣布致电住房市场的宏观审理措施，包括限制贷款到收入比率。但它抵制呼吁提高利率以使房地产泡沫缩小。

另一个未知是9月18日关于苏格兰独立的公民投票。强势期望重磅拍摄日期附近的小拨款，但由于几乎没有观察者认为公民投票将通过，因此对货币影响很小，他说。

哈迪还警告说，突然减少了被称为风险投资的突然减少造成的挤压的可能性。如果投资者逃到像美元和欧元这样的安全避风港的风险，那么有比英镑更具流动性更大的欧元，那些赌注的人可以粘合，他指出。•

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