今年早些时候开始的Modi Mania的杂音变成了可能的咆哮Narendra Modi.那chief minister of the state of Gujarat, swept the country’s general election to become prime minister. The politician’s business-friendly, reform-minded campaign promises elicited a strong response from financial markets. The S&P BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) SENSEX index has leaped by 29 percent since the beginning of March, when it started to become clear that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party would prevail.
If Modi succeeds in translating his pro-business intentions into concrete action,印度的经济增长有很大的机会，从近期近期水平蹦蹦跳跳。
Yet even investors who hold a bullish long-term view of the Indian market acknowledge that there is, so far, a lack of eye-catching reforms to which they can point. “They need to throw a little bit to investors in terms of policies,” says Sam Gupta, chief executive and investment officer of Grand Trunk Capital Management, an investment fund based in Menlo Park, California. The absence of big policy changes “has been a disappointment, and the onus is on the administration to show how new policies will be implemented over the next couple of years,” he adds.
Investors在这种早期热情的情况下，可能会感觉到一点Déjàvu。在另一个经济改革者Shinzo Abe的日本和之后的日本股市飙升，在2012年12月赢得了竞争激烈的大选胜利，以恢复经济。Investors’ love affair with Abenomics那as his three-arrow plan is called, has begun to lose its passion following a sharp decline in second-quarter economic activity. Modi must deliver on his economic pledges, or the Indian stock market could fall back, just as the Tokyo market failed to maintain the early momentum of the Abe rally.
虽然，Modi引发了一些早期的变化。古普塔指出了日常政府业务的加快。例如，新政府已经解决了基础设施项目的环境批准的积压。为了加快这些批准和其他政府进程，“官僚机构确实得到了行军的命令。古普塔说，部长们在上午9点凌晨9点举行了上午9点，而官僚们尚未获得讨厌的信和无薪休假。“
Responding to these signs of change in the air, many投资者通过继续寻求印度股票的机会来保持信仰。
这些投资者包括Ashmore投资管理，伦敦的新兴市场专家。朱莉迪克森，伦敦Ashmore的客户投资组合管理负责人负责人，预计企业收入将继续上升。然而，她警告说，盈利增长可能不会加速18至24个月，因为它需要时间才能实现莫迪改革的经济效益。2014年第二季度，印度CNX漂亮指数的50个大型公司的盈利增长增长了上涨了19％，今年该指数截至9月8日。
Ashmore在小型和MIDCAP消费者酌情股票中看到了特别的承诺，包括医疗保健部门的股票。小型股票目前，平均贸易约为12.8次2015年收益，比大多数大量的股票更便宜，在哪些国际投资者集中注意力。“周期正在转弯，更多的消费者在口袋里越来越多钱，”迪克森说。在许多发达的市场中，大部分金钱将参加消费品和消费者经验，如假期。在印度，在公共卫生保健系统贫困的地方，“随着你的收入增长，你开始照顾你的健康，以及建立一个家，买衣服并将孩子送到学校，”她补充道。
投资者在印度说回到高economic growth rates of yesteryear is crucial. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that growth will rise to 5.4 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2013, but that’s a far cry from the 8.5 percent average rate that prevailed in the second half of the 2000s. “Corporate profitability is very sensitive to economic growth,” says Nick Beecroft, Hong Kong–based portfolio specialist in Asian equities at T. Rowe Price, a Baltimore firm that manages $738 billion in assets. “In 2008 the economy grew almost 8 percent, and return on equity reached 23 percent, whereas last year gross domestic product growth slowed to 4 percent, and return on equity fell below 16 percent.” Despite recent rises, the Indian stock market as a whole trades at about 16 times forward earnings for 2015, just a tad above its long-term average of 15 and still some ways below the effective historical ceiling of 18, he notes. Given these relatively restrained valuations and the strong link between economic output and company earnings, says Beecroft, “if India’s growth can revive, we believe the market can push higher from here.”
Beecroft likes some of India’s privately owned banks, which he sees as a good beta proxy for the country’s economic growth. One he cites is Mumbai-headquartered HDFC Bank, which he calls “one of the best-managed banks in India,” with good cost control and lending practices. Its nonperforming loan ratio, at under 1 percent, is far lower than the Indian banking average of about 3 percent. Shares in HDFC closed at 1,051.65 rupees ($17.44) on September 8, up 32.3 percent since the end of 2013; the stock sports a price-to-book ratio of 4.5.
然而，T. Rowe价格经理并未专注于国内增长。Beecroft还喜欢IT服务部门的股票，例如Infosys。他指出，IT服务股“在2014年延续了更广泛的印度指数，”他指出，他们借鉴了长期增长的良好前景。这些公司在全球金融服务行业的复兴方面提供了戏剧，其巨大的IT支出是他们大部分收益的来源。9月8日以3,781.65卢比关闭的Infosy，自2013年底以来，上涨8.5％。
That argument will be lost on many investors, though. For them, the Indian stock market means one thing and one thing only at the moment: a Modi mania play.
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