每日议程：Heineken拒绝出价竞标

While this week’sFederal Open Market Committee announcement和Scottish independence referendumstand to be central macro themes, the biggest litmus test for market sentiment may well be the阿里巴巴集团IPO. With its road show on full steam, reports have surfaced that strong investor demand has led the company to increase the initial offering price beyond the initial range shown to investors. On one hand the largest Internet commerce company reaching the rapidly发展中国消费基地would seem to be an obviously attractive play for institutions and asset managers looking for growth in the global consumer markets. The rich valuation, coming at a time when U.S. equities are at historic highs, also suggest that the risk appetite of investors generally remains strong regardless of geopolitical and policy threats.

Brewer rejects offer.In a statement today, Amsterdam–based brewing giant Heineken is declaring that the firm had rejected an acquisition proposal from SAB Miller, the world’s second-largest brewing company and stated that it intends to remain independent after discussions among senior management and the founding family.

Scottish vote looms.Over the weekend the U.K. government made a last-minute push to convince Scottish voters to defeat a referendum for independence ahead of Thursday’s vote. Analysts have been divided over the total impact that a separation would have on the U.K.’s economy. But they do agree that the net-negative impact on gross domestic product would be profound. In a note to clients released this morning, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards noted that a ‘yes’ vote is possible and that “The obvious market conclusion is for a weaker sterling — but a proper old-fashioned crisis is plausible.”

中国监管机构带来了新的银行规则。The China Banking Regulatory Commission announced new rules requiring lenders to submit so-called month-end deposit deviation indicators. The data will be used to place restrictions against any bank with a deviation to the daily average in excess of 3 percent. This is the latest signal from Beijing indicating concerns over hidden liabilities in regional financial institutions, as阴影银行exposure taken on in the years following post-crisis stimulus measures begin to sour.

Numbers from China show economic slowdown.中国周末发布的数据惊讶于缺点，8月工业生产，固定资产投资和零售销售所有注册低于共识经济学家预测。生产水平特别是惊讶的观察者，同比增长率为6.9％，而预期的8.8。星期六，国家统计局公布了一份报告称，住房销售步伐已下降11％至去年同期。

U.S. industrial data on deck.The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release August production and capacity utilization data today. Consensus forecasts are for a marginal slowdown in the pace of overall output growth with marginally tighter utilization levels. After unexpectedly high activity levels in July, such a healthy showing would be further evidence of returning strength in the industrial sector.

Swedish anti-immigrant party gains seats.选举结果瑞典，斯堪的纳维亚最大的经济，为全国议会构成了一个挑战，因为大型反移民瑞典民主党人现在持有49个席位，另一个主要是左倾斜，拒绝与他们合作。

Portfolio Perspective: U.S. Finds Its Groove—Sal Guatieri, BMO Capital Markets

即使是世界其他地方努力维持体面的增长 - 或者，在欧元区的情况下，任何增长 - 美国经济都发现它的凹槽，由商业投资和汽车销售的上升驱动。在第二季度反弹4.2％后，经济观点只能在第三季度中适度地放缓，仍然是第三季度近3％的速度，具有上行风险。

Still, consumer spending, the largest economic driver, has yet to shift into top gear. After growing a middling 2.3 percent year-over-year to second-quarter 2014, personal spending fell in July, despite higher employment, record stock prices, and lower gasoline prices. Even with a likely auto-led pickup in August, spending will be hard-pressed to top 2 percent in the third quarter. The culprit is静止工资, which are barely outrunning inflation, thus are curbing spending power. We do expect consumers to take the spending baton from businesses when wage growth picks up in response to falling unemployment, however.

随着QE3可能在10月结束，寻找2015年6月开始的利率徒步旅行，何时失业率将落入可能引发工资通胀的水平。但随着其他措施仍然表现出懈怠，美联储将慢慢进行，将基金率提高到2015年底的1％。

尽管增长了较强的增长和美联储的资产购买，但由于乌克兰东部冲突，国外冲突驱动的资产收益率下跌至14个月，外国投资者的强劲需求，特别是中国和银行购买以满足新的流动性指南。最重要的是，欧洲中央银行的持续刺激将欧洲汇率推向新的低点，从而提高国债的相对吸引力。全球世俗力量，如一个老龄化人口和公共部门的折射率，也在夯实收益率。仍然，预计经济较强的经济和更严格的粮食政策将在2014年底截至2014年底，截至2014年底，截至2014年底，截至2015年底，将十年的财政收益率升至3.0％，并于2015年底升至3.5％。

Sal Guatieri is a senior economist atBMO资本市场在多伦多。