Weekend Agenda: The Week Ahead, September 22 – 26

随着灰尘从Scottish voteandFederal Open Markets Committee announcement, the coming week for global markets is relatively uneventful. With geopolitical tensions running high across multiple regions, however, the potential for volatility remains high, with multiple strategists also noting that long-term correlations between assets appear to have weakened in recent weeks. In particular,U.S. bond marketsappear to be factoring in slightly more risk of a mid-term shift in FOMC policy than the U.S. equity market. Commodities are charting their own course, as a North American supply glut for oil outweighs currency moves. One of the biggest unknowns is whether targeted stimulus in China will be able to soften the blow for growth levels as the economy there continues to shift towards a focus on domestic demand.

Monday, September 22:The week gets underway with euro zone September consumer confidence numbers and a speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, in which he is expected to touch on what’s weighing on European growth. In the U.S., existing home sales for August are on deck. In July the annual pace of sales rose to a seasonally adjusted multimonth high of 5.15 million, despite declining distressed sales.

9月23日星期二：September HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) numbers for China will be carefully watched for any further signal of cooling activity, with commodities markets poised to react negatively to any softness. PMI data will also be released in Europe, with a particular focus on France and Germany, the euro zone’s two largest economies, for investors trying to parse the ECB’s next move. In the U.S., manufacturing PMI and July Federal Housing Finance Agency housing price index levels are scheduled for release in the morning.

Wednesday, September 24:IFO sentiment indicators for September will be released in Germany, with consensus forecasts for a contraction as thecrisis in Ukraine继续对德国的经济体重重。在美国，新的家庭销售号码和每周能源信息管理供石油供应数据在甲板上。和North American oil supply levels on the rise, a primary narrative impacting the price of oil, any surprise in the EIA report will be a point of interest.

Thursday, September 25:Euro zone M3 levels and private lending for August will be released on Thursday. After the lackluster results of the recently closed ECB lending facility, private-sector lending continues to be a concern for European markets. In the U.S., durable goods for August and weekly initial jobless claims will be released. After last week’s surprise improvement in claims, consensus forecasts call for a moderate rise in the newly jobless.

Friday, September 26:Gfk consumer sentiment index data for August will be released in Germany. The U.S. has a slew of critical data points on deck for the day, including revised second-quarter gross domestic product; August consumer credit; second-quarter personal consumption expenditure and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment index levels.

Portfolio Perspective: U.S. Oil Production in Focus—Vincent Fernando, Religare Capital Markets

2015年，EIA再次夺走了美国石油产量预测，现在预计产量增长！million barrels per day (bpd), up from the previously predicted growth of 800,000 bpd “Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports next year to just 21 percent of domestic demand, the lowest level since 1968,” said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski, according to oil industry publicationRigzone. The EIA’s forecast for U.S. 2014 oil output was also hiked, up to 8.53 million bpd from 8.46 million bpd, implying that U.S. oil output growth will account for a whopping 91 percent of expansion in global oil output. This trends underlies the disruptive transformation of global energy markets that is underway and the emergence of the U.S. as a key driver of energy dynamics.

Vincent Fernando is an analyst atReligare Capital Marketsin Singapore.