Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen

我长大了讨厌美国。我住在苏联，是冷战的孩子。然而，当柏林墙落下而冷战结束时，仇恨们在1989年离开了。当我在1991年离开俄罗斯时，苏联倒塌的那一年，美国是一个俄罗斯人抬头并想要模仿的国家。

Twenty-three years later, a new version of cold war is back, though we Americans haven’t realized it yet. But I am getting ahead of myself.

后俄罗斯入侵克里米亚并举行公投，我以为弗拉基米尔普京的外国游览结束了。收回克里米亚违反了大量的国际法，但让我们诚实。虽然像美国和俄罗斯这样的主要权力撰写国际法，但如果他们发现他们不符合最佳利益，他们并不是遵守这些法律。这些法律适合其他人。我不诚信这样的行为，但我可以清楚地看到俄罗斯人如何证明在克里米亚恢复 - 毕竟，它曾经属于俄罗斯。

我困惑俄罗斯人如何支持，而不是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的愤怒。但我住在丹佛，我大部分都读到了美国和欧洲报纸。I wanted to see what was going on in Russia and Ukraine from the Russian perspective, so I went on a seven-day news diet: I watched only Russian TV — Channel One Russia, the state-owned broadcaster, which I hadn’t seen in more than 20 years — and readPravda.，俄罗斯报纸的名字意味着“真理”。这是我学到的：

• If Russia did not reclaim Crimea, once the new, illegitimate government came to power in Ukraine, the Russian navy would have been kicked out and the U.S. navy would have started using Crimean ports as navy bases.
• 乌克兰没有俄罗斯军队，也没有任何那里。如果在那里找到任何俄罗斯士兵（并且有），那些士兵们在休假。他们去乌克兰支持他们被乌克兰民族主义者被虐待的俄罗斯兄弟姐妹。（他们可能已经借用了一个能够击落飞机的坦克或两辆坦克或两种，但由于某种原因，这些细节在俄罗斯媒体上没有太大提及。）在11月12日，北约报告说俄罗斯坦克进入乌克兰。俄罗斯政府强烈否定了它，责备北约是反俄语。
• Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17没有被俄罗斯或分离主义者拖延。它被乌克兰的空对空导弹击落，或者当时从事乌克兰军事锻炼的北约飞机。美国有卫星图像，但害怕真相，并选择不与世界分享。
• 乌克兰由美国稳点稳定，在这一项目上花了50亿美元。作为证据，电视新闻展示了参议员约翰麦凯恩的视频，向基辅亚慱体育app的Maidan Square发出讲话给抗辩抗议者。随后是乔埃·拜登副总统的视频，在骚动期间访亚慱体育app问乌克兰。我不确定他的职位是什么，但暗示他与骚乱有关。
• 谈到Joe Biden，我了解到他的儿子刚加入乌克兰最大的天然气公司的董事会，这将从一个不稳定的乌克兰中获益匪浅。
• Ukraine is a zoo of a country, deeply corrupt and overrun by Russian-haters and neo-Nazis (Banderovtsi — Ukrainian nationalists who were responsible for killing Russians and Jews during World War II).
• Candidates for the recent parliamentary election in Ukraine included Darth Vader (not kidding), as well as a gay ex-prostitute who claims to be a working man’s man but lives in a multimillion-dollar mansion.

I have to confess, it is hard not to develop a lot of self-doubt about your previously held views when you watch Russian TV for a week. But then you have to remind yourself that Putin’s Russia doesn’t have a free press. The free press that briefly existed after the Soviet Union collapsed is gone — Putin killed it. The government controls most TV channels, radio and newspapers. What Russians see on TV, read in print and listen to on the radio is direct propaganda from the Kremlin.

Before I go further, let’s visit the definition of propaganda with the help of the牛津英语词典：“系统地传播信息，尤其是偏见或误导性的方式，以促进政治事业或观点。”

我一直认为互联网是一股势不可挡的民主力量，它总是让真相从即使是最坚定的宣传墙的缝隙中溜走。我错了。看完俄罗斯电视之后，你不会想看西方媒体，因为你会确信这是在撒谎。更重要的是，俄罗斯电视是如此强大，你甚至不想看其他任何东西，因为你会相信你拥有无可争辩的事实。

俄罗斯的宣传通过强迫你的右脑（情绪中的一个）来压倒你的左脑（逻辑一），同时堵塞了所有逻辑过滤器。以下是一个例子：俄罗斯电视显示乌克兰军队轰炸的东乌克兰东部的学校镜头。任何人的心都会流血，看到这些令人毛骨悚然的图像。不可能对那些对自己人口犯下这种暴漠的人感到仇恨。尽管消除燃烧协议，但乌克兰军队仍然向乌克兰军队继续进攻。

当然，如果你看了乌克兰的电视，你会在另一边看到类似的死亡和绝望的画面。事实上，如果你阅读乌克兰的报纸，你会了解到乌克兰军队正在与一支装备精良的军队作战，不是手持燃烧弹和手枪的叛军，而是一支由俄军全副武装的有组织部队。

What viewers were not shown was that the cease-fire had been broken before the fighting resumed. The fact that Putin helped to instigate this war was never mentioned. Facts are not something Russian TV is concerned about. As emotional images and a lot of disinformation pump up your right brain, it overpowers the left, which capitulates and stops questioning the information presented.

我也学到的是你不必撒谎。让我给你举个例子。我无法弄清楚俄罗斯媒体如何提出了50亿美元的“美国花了乌克兰破坏了乌克兰”的50亿美元。但是我找到了一个亚慱体育app美国美国副标题发表8.5分钟;她说，在7.5分钟的标志下，“自1991年的乌克兰独立以来，”美国“投资超过50亿美元来帮助乌克兰。”50亿美元的数字是正确的。然而，它没有给乌克兰三个月给予稳定民主选举的腐败的亲俄政府，但在23年的过程中稳定。是的，你不必撒谎;你只需要省略重要事实 - 俄罗斯电视的东西非常擅长。

左脑上右脑攻击的另一个例子是“乌克兰新纳粹主义的兴起。”大多数谎言都是在真理内核周围建造的，这一个没有什么不同。乌克兰是Banderovtsi的家园，乌克兰民族主义者负责在第二次世界大战期间负责杀死数万名犹太人和俄罗斯人。

Putin justified the invasion of Crimea by claiming that he was protecting the Russian population from neo-Nazis. Russian TV creates the impression that the whole of Ukraine is overrun by Nazis. As my father puts it, “Ukrainians who lived side by side with Russians did not just become Nazis overnight.”

虽然可能存在一些乌克兰的新纳粹，但目前的政府是自由主义的和亲西部。Svoboda - 其成员以其Neo-Nazi和反犹太主义的言论而闻名的派对 - 在10月份选举中没有达到5％的选票，所以在议会中获得重要存在所需的最低价值。与此同时，电视显示在第二次世界大战期间展示纳粹杀害俄罗斯人和犹太人的图像，并在今天纳粹德国和乌克兰之间绘制平行。

让俄罗斯的情况更加困难的是，与美国人不同，美国人默认不信任他们的政治家——是的，甚至是他们的总统——俄罗斯人仍然有崇拜其领导人的沙皇心态。斯大林在很大程度上培养了这一点——大多数俄罗斯人认为他是一个父亲的形象。斯大林1953年去世时，我父亲才20岁，他告诉我，他和周围的每个人一样，都哭了。

我一直在考虑主席说：“强国腐败，绝对权力绝对腐败。”我们今天嘲笑的普京并不总是这样;他在第一个术语中做了很多好事。这两者最脱颖而出，脱离了杀害俄罗斯的有组织的犯罪，并提出了一个商业平面税制。然而，俄罗斯人的幂赋予他们的总统将随着时间的推移将血液流入任何人的头部。来想一想，甚至母亲特蕾莎甚至没有在俄罗斯的机会。

几周前普京转了62人，成千上万的人took to the streets庆祝他的生日。（大多数美国人，包括这一点，甚至都不知道巴拉克奥巴马的生日。）

在我虚度青春的时候，我在科罗拉多大学上了一堂市场营销课。我对那堂课的记忆很少，除了这句话：要记住你的信息，消费者至少要听六遍。普京的宣传人员肯定也上过同样的课，因为俄罗斯公民每天至少要听六次他们的总统有多伟大。

我们美国人看着普京，看到一个邪恶的克格勃家伙，他不穿衬衫在全国各地游荡。俄国人看到的是完全不同的画面。他们看到了一位非常关心他们的辛勤工作的总统。每一个新闻节目至少有五分之一的播出时间用来展示普京的伟大，不是用你的脸，而是用微妙的方式。一个典型的片段是他会见内阁部长。部长会发表他的报告，普京看起来确实很严肃，他会就需要做什么对部长进行演讲。普京对他的部长们总是坦诚、直接和强硬。

我已经听取了一些普京的讲话，我必须承认他的歌剧技能是优秀的，是J.F.K.或里根口径。他没有发表演讲;他说。他的语言是可以访问的，充满Zingers。他非常平静和逻辑。

俄罗斯人看着普京的总统任期，问自己一个非常务实的问题：我现在和他在一起，比他上台前的日子好吗？对大多数人来说，答案是肯定的。大多数俄罗斯人看不到的是油价在过去的14年里，从14美元到100美元的桶。他们完全责任俄罗斯的一招石化经济的复兴。换句话说，他们应该考虑过去十年的经济做得更好的原因，为什么它也可能无法做到。除非普京是跳跃 - 开始中国对石油和其他商品的需求更高的商品，否则他与俄罗斯最近的“繁荣”有关。

我把繁荣放在引号里是因为如果你把石油和天然气的财富从俄罗斯拿走（较低的价格可以轻松做到这一点），它现在的处境比14年前更糟。高油价毁了俄罗斯。他们推高了人民币汇率，使其其他产品在国际市场上的竞争力降低。此外，资本会被吸引到更高的回报率；因此，石油从其他行业吸走了资本，掏空了经济。苏联解体后，俄罗斯有机会扩大经济；它拥有世界上受教育程度最高的劳动力之一。可悲的是，它浪费了这个机会。列举一种从俄罗斯出口的非调质产品。没有多少；我只能想到伏特加和军事装备。

But most Russians don’t look at things that way. For most of them, their lives are better now: No more lines for toilet paper, and the stores are full of food. Their personal liberties (such as freedom of speech and freedom of the press) have been taken away from them, but many have so much trust in their president that they don’t mind, whereas others are simply complacent.

今天，我们看到有三个影响油价并正在努力对抗俄罗斯的因素：供应正在与美国页岩钻井一起上涨;如果需要的需求增长可能会下降中国经济持续降温;美元越来越强，不是因为美国做得很好，但只是因为世界其他地方做得更糟。如果油价继续下降，这将暴露俄罗斯经济的真正状态。

When I visited Russia in 2008, I sensed an anti-American sentiment. NATO — which in Russia is perceived as a predominantly American entity — had expanded too close to Russian borders. Georgia tried to join NATO, but Russia put a quick end to that. Russians felt they extended a friendly hand to the U.S. after 9/11, but in response America was arraying missiles around its borders. (The U.S. says they are defensive, not offensive; Russians don’t see the distinction. They are probably right.)

这个新的冷战的真正颜色最近来了光明。2008年8月，根据亨利保尔森的说法那the U.S. Treasury secretary at the time, “top level” Russian officials approached the Chinese during the Olympics in Beijing and proposed “that together they might sell big chunks of their GSE [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] holdings to force the U.S. to use its emergency authorities to prop up these companies.”

这一事件发生前数周lapse of Lehman Brothers. The U.S. economy was inches from revisiting the Stone Age. The proposed Russian-Chinese maneuver could have made such an outcome more likely. The Federal Reserve would have had to step in and buy Fannie’s and Freddie’s debt, and the dollar would have taken a dive, worsening the plunge in the U.S. economy. Our friend Putin wanted to bring the U.S. economy down without firing a single shot, just as he annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Today anti-American sentiment is much greater in Russia. European sanctions are seen as entirely unjustified. Here is why: Crimea had a “democratic referendum,” and the Ukrainian conflict is believed to be not of Russia’s doing but rather an American attempt to destabilize Russia and bring Ukraine into NATO. In his annual speech at the Valdai conference last month, Putin said America had pushed an unwilling Europe into imposing对俄罗斯的制裁。America is perceived as an imperialistic bully that, because of its economic and military power, puts its own self-interest above everyone else’s, and international law.

普京用抗美帝主义作为闪亮的物体，以减损俄罗斯经济疲软和其他内部问题的关注。在短期下，制裁为弱化俄罗斯经济和卢布下降，提供了一个方便的借口。他们提升了普京的普及（至少到目前为止）。随着俄罗斯经济变得更糟，反美情绪只会崛起。

This new version of the cold war has little in common with the one I grew up in. There are no ideological differences, and there is no arms race (at least not yet, and let’s be honest: Today neither country can afford one, especially Russia). At the core of it, we don’t like what Russia is doing to its neighbors, and Russia doesn’t like what we do to the rest of the (non-EU) world.

The criticisms of U.S. foreign policy voiced by Putin in his latest Valdai speech are shared by many Americans: The U.S. is culpable in the unresolved, open-ended Afghanistan adventure; the Iraq War; the almost-bombing of Syria, which may have destabilized the region further; and the creation of the Islamic State, which is in large part a by-product of all of the above. Yet Putin’s abominable Ukrainian excursion and the thousands of lives lost were never mentioned.

但也有一些不太有形的，影响俄罗斯的行为：伤痕累累的自我。在古老的苏联日期，俄罗斯是超级大国。它很重要。当它发言时，世界听了。俄罗斯人在他们的罗迪纳（俄罗斯俄罗斯）有很好的骄傲。今天，如果俄罗斯没有核武器，我们就比我们的注意力更少关注。选择一个没有石油的发展中国家，你可以姓名的总统。（好的，我们美国人不能称之为几乎任何其他国家的总统，但你明白了。）

随着俄罗斯经济的衰退，反美主义和普京的支持率都将上升。例如，普京在对进口欧洲食品实施制裁时，把自己的人民作为人质。对欧洲的影响不会很大（与欧盟相比，俄罗斯经济规模不是很大），但俄罗斯非常依赖这些进口。在美国，消费者将收入的13%花在食品上，但在俄罗斯，这个数字几乎是前者的三倍。因此，食品通胀对俄罗斯人的伤害更大。然而，随着食品通胀飙升，普京的受欢迎程度和反美情绪也随之高涨。甚至油价下跌将被解释为美国的反俄操纵。

Unfortunately, the only thing Russia has going for it today is its nuclear weapons. Russia has started to remind us of its military recently.据北约说该联盟“到目前为止，在2014年对俄罗斯飞机进行了100多次拦截，这是2013年的3倍左右。”

Every article needs a conclusion, but this one doesn’t have one. I am not sure what this new cold war means for the world. Will Russia start invading other neighboring countries? Will it test NATO resolve by invading Baltic countries that are part of NATO? I don’t know. Economic instability will eventually lead to political crises. We have plenty of economic instability going on around the world.

我会留下这个想法：1936年3月7日，德国军队违反了凡尔赛条约，进入了莱茵兰。这是希特勒后来说的：

“The forty-eight hours after the march into the Rhineland were the most nerve-racking in my life. If the French had then marched into the Rhineland, we would have had to withdraw with our tails between our legs, for the military resources at our disposal would have been wholly inadequate for even a moderate resistance.”

这两天确定德国将不做什么xt — build out its army and start World War II.

Comparing Putin with Hitler, as one of my Russian friends put it, is “absolutely abominable” because it diminishes Hitler’s atrocities and overstates by a mile what Putin has accomplished to date. Yet it feels as if we are at a Putin-of-1936 moment. Will he turn into a Putin of 1939 and invade other countries? I don’t know. But the events of the past nine months have shown Putin’s willingness to defy international law and seize the advantage on the ground, betting — correctly so far — that the West won’t call his bluff.

正如加里·卡斯帕罗夫所说，当西方在下棋，在战术上应对每一个转折时，普京在下棋high-stakes poker。我们忽略了自己的危险。