连续第二年，yunosuke ikeda.Nomura捕获了第2位现货，赚取“战术见解和长期战略意见”的赞誉，因为一个忠诚的人说。由于美国和日本之间的利率差异，日元将远期进一步削弱，部分原因是美国和日本之间的利率差异“没有进一步缩小”，他说：“但有很多宽阔的发展。”In particular, if America’s economy returns to a 3 percent growth trajectory starting in the second quarter, after overcoming the impact of weather, then the market will begin pricing in a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike scenario for 2015, which would likely strengthen its currency, the strategist explains. What’s more, Ikeda notes, Japan’s ballooning trade deficit and elevated level of outward foreign direct investment will drive the Nomura Yen Flow Index — a model designed to help predict long-term conditions for the currency — to a supply-demand “deficit” of approximately ¥15 trillion ($146 billion), on an annualized basis, through this year and next, which is “significant enough to weaken the yen by around ¥9 per year even without a strong tailwind from U.S. interest rates.” His 2014 year-end target for the yen is 114 to the dollar, a 10.1 percent depreciation of the Japanese currency from its mid-March value. |
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