Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s three-pronged economic recovery strategy — massive public spending, monetary easing and structural reforms — sparked optimism and enthusiasm in the minds of asset managers last year. They poured a record $43.7 billion into Japanese股票根据EPFR Global的说法，总部位于马萨诸塞州剑桥的资金流量跟踪服务，大量的净流入有助于推动日经225指数上涨近57％ - 其在40多年以上的最大年增长。
但很多人投资者一直是令人担忧的课程Abenomics可能没有蒸汽。有意义的改革尚未介绍;2013年最终三个月日本国内国内生产总值同比增长0.7％，低于达人的共识期望;政府上个月报道，1月份当前账户赤字肿胀至1.589万亿日元（155亿美元）。这些发展，加上本月的消费税的增加将大幅限制消费支出，派遣了许多投资组合经理寻找安全的避风港。日经指数在今年的前十周内翻滚约12％。
“Recent pessimism about the Japanese stock market is overblown,” insists Yohei Osade, global head of pan-Asian equity research at Mizuho Securities Group.投资者sold a net ¥975.3 billion in Japanese stocks in the second week of March, he notes, and that’s “more than they sold during the global financial crisis and second only to Black Monday in October 1987.”
在其他问题中，讨论讨论讨论和关于税收增加的担忧的兴趣促进了回调，以及其他问题，奥德拉斯驻俄勒冈州的承认。“所说，这几乎不能认为，日本的经济或企业收入现在比在雷曼震惊的时候才处于更糟糕的状态，”他补充道。
Nomura亚太股权研究负责人Jun Konomi拥有类似的观点。“一些投资者已经有点怀疑Abenomics, that’s led to the recent malaise in stock prices,” he says. “But we believe both the GDP slowdown and sluggish stock market are temporary and attributable to the scheduled tax hike, dollar-yen sideways trading and geopolitical risks. We are going to see a powerful resilience in the economy and the market.”
与否，根据三菱UFJ摩根斯坦利证券公司的说法Nobuyuki Saji.。“这正展示了日本经济的结构性低迷，”着名的看跌者经济学家宣布。“通过2013财年上半年，日本消费者对经济逐步改善的前瞻性的未来有足够的预期。然而，随着目前日元贬值[驾驶]商品价格，乐观表已停止，购买情绪已冷却。“
它可以在2014财年重新推出，该财政开始于4月1日？大大取决于日本消费者如何对税收增加以及总理在执行他承诺超过一年前的改革方面的成功。投资者将密切关注，其中许多人将依靠卖方的见解。他们说，当提供金钱经理发现最有帮助的方向时，他们说，Mizuho和野村在竞争中出来了。这些公司在2014年全日本研究团队中分享了最高荣誉，亚博赞助欧冠’s 21st annual ranking of the country’s best sell-side analysts, by capturing 24 team positions each. That’s the same number that Nomura claimed last year, when it was the team’s sole leader, but for Mizuho it represents an increase of nine — including six sector-topping analysts, more than from any other firm. Indeed, when positions are weighted to reflect their relative values, Mizuho (which finished third overall in 2013) emerges as this year’s undisputed champion, with a weighted total of 64 to Nomura’s 54.（看Weighting the Results。)
SMBC Nikko Securities也是一个值得称赞的跳跃，从第5到第3号，在增加其团队职位乘五年之后，到19.美国银行Merrill Lynch落在失去两个斑点后，从第二名到第四位，离开它16，虽然DAIWA证券集团持续有14个职位的5号。这些结果反映了大约350个买方机构的1,000多名投资专业人士的意见，这些机构在日本证券中统计地管理估计的1.1万亿美元。
See the每张调查33个部门的排名级分析师在此页面右上角的导航中，以及这些个人的简档以及第二个和第三个位置的概况，以及竞赛者和其他调查数据的列表。
Saji, a member of the All-Japan Research Team Hall of Fame who’s making his 13th appearance at No. 1 in Economics, believes that the sales tax, which jumped from 5 percent to 8 percent this month and is scheduled to rise to 10 percent in October of next year, “can push down real GDP growth by 0.45 percentage points in fiscal 2014 and by 0.75 points in fiscal 2015.” Moreover, “there are two additional tax increases, both starting from January 2015, raising the maximum rate of inheritance tax and cutting its basic exemptions, and raising the maximum income tax rate,” he points out. “These can be heavy burdens.”
As for Abe’s “third arrow” — structural reforms — the prime minister is facing tough opposition from his own Liberal Democratic Party, which favors “putting tax hikes on working households to maintain current generous social security systems,” Saji says. “It is unlikely to implement policies that can raise the unemployment rate even in the short term or that can give advantages to corporations rather than individuals. These can be materialized after 2016,” the deadline for the next general election.
其他人有一个更乐观的前景。“消费税收徒步旅行将在2014财年下降0.7个百分点，我们认为，主要是通过消费者的实际收入来较低，”野村的konomi预测。“然而，政府的补充预算和2014财年预算的支出可能会降低负面影响，该企业投资和出口的预期增加将增加。”
同时，随着时间的推移，“很可能会使”彻底变化“，”他补充道。“在新法律之后，我们已经开始将新条目显示为电力市场以自由化电力市场。每个地区的改革可能不会数量，但这些举措应该集体筹集增长。“
SMBC Nikko的股权研究负责人Kazuharu Miura同意。“消费税收上的消费支出和国内生产总值的负面影响可能因经济刺激计划和工资增加而产生的积极影响，”他相信。
请记住，日本日本销售税在1997年4月1日，日经指数在4月10日陷入困境，在当年中旬，日本人在4月10日之前陷入困境，在该年中期，米佐的伊斯达的强调强调。“我们预测这次类似的反弹，只要在目前的飙升在期望之后的需求收缩，”他补充道。
他的同事Masatoshi Kikuchi.谁在第二个地方一年后回收了股权战略的最大点，认为消费者支出放缓将仅限于日本的第一季度。“股市应恢复一旦投资者认识到，需求放缓是暂时的，从4月到6月，应该开始于7月开始接收”，“他预测。“我们将零售部门从3月20日升级到中立，因为我们认为坏消息已经定价于零售股票。”
根据零售的第1分析师，甚至可能是消费者的上行程序，Hiroshi Koba.MITSUBISHI UFJ。“从前行的需求的回退可能会在规模和持续时间方面有限，但它可能会在一些市场上火花出现价格竞争，”在过去的七年中首次参加第五次名单的Koba说。His top pick is Saitama-based home improvement retailer Shimachu Co. “Teaming up with furniture manufacturers has made it possible for the company to add relatively high-end products to its lineup, and the furniture market has turned slightly in Shimachu’s favor, with the weaker yen making it harder for low-priced furniture importers to compete on price,” he explains. “However, one risk we see is a significant slide in consumer appetite for durables once the tax hike kicks in.”
That’s less of an issue insofar as consumer staples are concerned.Naomi Takagi，饮料，粮食和烟草排名第一的分析师第三年（自2010年以来第四次），观察到购物者在税收增加之前储存了必需品。结果，“卷将于4月到6月”，“瑞银分析师断言。“然而，一旦价格上涨，消费者可能会对品牌，质量和价值更具选择性。”
一些公司引进新产品公司rease margins, she reports. For example, Asahi Group Holdings, a beverage distributor headquartered in Tokyo, and its crosstown rival Suntory Beverage & Food have added premium labels to improve their sales mixes, Takagi notes.
其他零售商可能会提高税收增加所需的价格。“目前，政府对机会定价进行了警告，因为他们担心支出放缓，”分析师解释道。“与此同时，政府强烈建议，公司增加了更高的产品价格税，而不是试图吸收它。”
The weak currency is also adding to the troubles faced by many food and beverage providers, which procure between 70 and 80 percent of their raw materials from overseas, Takagi notes. “My sector will not perform well in the current environment,” she states. If the yen would stay at its current level, 102.45 against the dollar as of mid-March, “then the cost increases would slow down in the second half,” she says.
But that’s not going to happen, according to Deutsche Securities’Taisuke Tanaka.，谁连续第二年以货币和外汇交易捕获第一年。他预测，稳步改善美国经济将进一步贬值，这可能达到今年年底和120美元的美元。
“我们在2014年的美国国内生产总值增长3.2％，2015年的3.8％，”Tanaka说。“如果没有强大的美国经济，即使日本银行额外的量化宽松，美元也无法欣赏[反对日元]。他补充说，如果美国恢复疲软，日本中央银行的任何额外措施将无法赚取美元 - 而Nikkei - 即将上升。
“我们总是看着冒出风险的触发，例如令人失望的美国的增长;来自中国，欧元区的冲击新兴市场;和地缘政治问题，“Tanaka报道。然而，在我们的主要情景中，这些风险目前并未被视为重要。“
The prospect of further monetary accommodation is a key issue for banks.Nana Otsuki.，谁声称她在该部门的第1号首次出现，认为“可以在7月和9月之间实施额外措施，对银行业的影响将被混合。”Bofa Merrill研究人员指出，这种宽松将加强对消费者价格指数上涨的期望，这将鼓励企业增加资本支出。然而，在这种情况下，东京银行间提供的速率可能会遇到进一步的下行压力，这可能导致金融公司的净兴趣利润恶化。
“我们目前对日本银行业的中立或略微谨慎的观点，”Otsuki说。“从本财政年度的中间通过下一个，我们可以更加看涨，鉴于我们可能会看到一些自上而下和/或自下而上的催化剂。市场可能会在2016财年第一季度的净利息收入的可能周转中开始解决。“
她说，消费税的增加可能对银行的盈利能力几乎没有直接影响，但在短期急于进入徒步旅行后，可能会对抵押贷款需求产生不利影响。“最终，影响不应该大，只要人们认为房产价格将保持稳固的发展”，“她争辩。
The dawn of a new fiscal year has brought other developments that seem likely to have a more positive — and longer-lasting — impact. In late March, for instance, the government unveiled a proposal to allow more foreign workers into Japan and to permit them to stay for five years, rather than the current three. “Most investors have been unaware of developments concerning immigration policy, such as proposed revisions to the immigration control act, mainly because there has been little media coverage on the subject outside Japan,” says Mizuho’s Osade. “We thus believe the surprise factor will be considerable if changes are made.”
然而，在可以实施任何政策变化之前，就会有一段时间，Kikuchi相信。“该报告是在劳动力短缺的建设和其他行业的长期内的好消息，并通过整个日本经济延伸，”Mizuho战略家表示。“但是，在任何这些提案之前的法律变更的必要性可以投入实践意味着他们不会在2015财年之前生效。”
即便如此，“日本接受更多熟练的外国工人的建议是一个积极的迹象表明，该国愿意加入国际竞争的高度合格的人，即使它迟到参加比赛，”他补充道。
此外，3月下旬，政府确定了一半的国家特别战略区域 - 将作为经济管制的测试理由。“国家战略特殊区法案与过去类似的举措不同，因为它的目标是使日本的大城市更加强大，并且它直接由总理和中央政府在自上而下的基础上进行管理。”Kikuchi解释道。“在这个意义上，我们认为它有可能推动监管改革。”
然而，他注意到，该公告近三个月才近三个月，被推迟“由于官僚和行业机构，不欢迎监管改革，并从政治家的繁重地游览，热衷于将这些区域带到他们的选区。”
An even more contentious issue is the corporate tax rate. The prime minister has frequently expressed his desire that it be cut from its current level of approximately 35 percent, which is among the highest among developed nations, to help make Japanese companies more globally competitive and to attract foreign investment. Critics of the plan — including members of Abe’s own party — have argued that any reduction will hamper the country’s ability to pay its public debt, which at more than 240 percent of GDP is the highest in the world.
“Concerning the corporate tax rate cut, some investors optimistically expect a rate of 25 percent, while others more cautiously look for 30 percent, but in either case the corporate tax cut being discussed will do nothing to lift investors’ expectations until debate proceeds to action,” Osade contends. “Our impression is that much depends on whether the government presents specific figures and a time line when it gives a growth strategy update in June.”A more urgent consideration is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed free-trade agreement among Japan, the U.S. and ten other countries. The negotiations have stalled over disagreements stemming from Japan’s insistence on protective tariffs on certain agricultural goods. The U.S. wants all such preferences eliminated.
“People close to the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks have talked of trying to reach an overall agreement in time for President Obama’s visit to Asia in late April and ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November, but are pessimistic about the chances of success,” Osade says. “This would not come as a negative surprise to the stock market, which has already formed a consensus that an early agreement is unlikely. We believe that the Abe administration can still succeed in its economic agenda, but failure on the Trans-Pacific Partnership would be bad news in the medium term in that it would delay one of Prime Minister Abe’s ‘third-arrow’ reforms: overhauling Japan’s farm sector.”
他解释说，政府已经确定了某些产品组 - 包括牛肉和猪肉，乳品，乳制品，乳制品，乳制品，奶油和小麦，这是必须保持关税的关键出口。伙伴关系的目标是达到近100％的关税拆除，但如果这五个类别被豁免，这一数字将达到93.5％。
The U.S. is prepared to view rice as a special case but is reportedly pressing for major reductions in the levy on beef — which it regards as a strategic export — from the current 38.5 percent, Osade says. “The media have also reported a work-around being floated by the Liberal Democratic Party, under which Japan would nominally fulfill its international commitment by lowering tariffs on some of the 586 individual items within the five protected categories,” he adds. “It is reportedly considering which of those items to sacrifice — but we only have such media reports to go on, since details of the partnership talks are not disclosed.”
其他研究董事揭示了协议的重要性以及必要的必要性。“跨太平洋伙伴关系是一个重要的增长举措，但仍然只是整体战略的一部分，”野村的Konomi观察。“即使协议在2014年未能实现，它将在2015年初，美国中期选举后初期有很好的机会。”
SMBC Nikko’s Miura concurs. “The partnership is a part of Abe’s growth strategy, but the importance is not so high relative to the economic special zones and corporate tax reduction.”
为了形成艰难的观点。“未经跨太平洋伙伴关系结束，”三菱UFJ经济学家宣布，在没有结束的情况下取得了成功。•