炙手可热的新非洲投资趋势：养老基金

自成立十年前，赫利俄斯投资伙伴就一直是非洲最大、最具创新性的私募股权投资者之一。这家总部位于伦敦的公司管理着大约20亿美元的投资，这些投资范围从移动通信运营商到石油和天然气企业，到购物中心。但该机构最新的交易可能是迄今为止最重要的交易：上个月，赫利奥斯收购了ARM养老金管理公司的少数股权，该公司是尼日利亚最大的私营部门养老基金经理资产管理公司资产子公司22亿美元。

赫利奥斯正沿着去年年底的一条道路，跨越式投资（LeapFrogInvestments）走在了一条道路上。该公司是一家新兴市场私人股本公司，由西方养老基金支持，后者为加纳三大私人养老基金受托人之一Petra Trust 25%的股权支付了300万美元。

突然间，非洲机构投资者成为非洲最热门亚博赞助欧冠的投资之一。欧洲大陆新兴的养恤基金行业规模和雄心正在迅速增长，这是该区域在一些国家强劲经济增长和改革的产物。这些养恤金基金承诺为长期依赖官方援助和资源公司直接投资的区域的发展提供急需的土著资本来源。这些基金正在吸引国际投资公司的兴趣，这些公司可以提供专门知识，以换取获得交易和共同投资机会。

“What we’re beginning to see is the emergence of an ecosystem,” says Hubert Danso, CEO of Africa Investor Group, an investment and advisory outfit based in Johannesburg. African pension funds will become increasingly important investors in public and private markets, both at home and across borders on the continent, and will attract Western pension funds and institutional investors as partners, he says. “Within three, four years you’ll see a transformative industry,” Danso says. “It’s the big push that’s going to happen.”

In addition to the promise of deeper domestic pension pools to fuel growth and development, the continent’s biggest manager of pension assets, South Africa’s Public Investment Corp., is looking to expand its investments across the region. PIC, which boasts 1.6 trillion South African rand ($148 billion) in assets, has been making its influence felt. It paid $250 million in 2012 for a 20 percent stake in Ecobank Transnational, a Togo-based bank with operations across the continent, and earlier this year it agitated successfully for the removal of the bank’s CEO, Thierry Tanoh, over allegations of mismanagement.

尼日利亚offers a hint of the potential for the region’s growing pension industry. The country’s retirement funds have experienced phenomenal growth since the government introduced reforms, beginning in 2006, that transformed a largely unfunded defined benefit scheme into a defined contribution system that mandated participation from all employees covered by pension plans. The industry has nearly tripled in size in the past five years, to some $25 billion in assets, even though less than 10 percent of Nigeria’s workforce is enrolled in a pension plan. What’s more, the government is in the process of liberalizing regulations on the industry to allow pension funds to put money into certain alternative investments, including private equity, and to invest outside Nigeria. With presidential elections looming in February, it may be mid-2015 before everything is settled and implementation begins, says Razaq Ahmed, executive director of Sart Partners, a Lagos-based money management firm.

“明年这个时候，你会看到一些很难的牵引力，”艾哈迈德说，他称赞赫利俄斯的手臂交易是未来的一个信号。他补充说，这家私募股权公司可以帮助该公司投资多样化，并从尼日利亚养老基金行业的增长中获益。

赫利奥斯高管拒绝对这一交易发表评论，但在一份声明中，合伙人托佩·拉瓦尼称尼日利亚养老基金市场的遗传力严重不足。交易条款并未透露，但当地媒体报道，赫利俄斯正在投资5000万美元。

Using a combination of public and private sources,亚博赞助欧冠estimates that sub-Saharan Africa’s ten largest pension fund markets held approximately $310 billion in assets at the end of last year. Of these countries, South Africa is by far the largest, with assets of some $252 billion, or about 80 percent of the total. But the strongest growth is coming in countries like Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda, which have moved in recent years to expand and liberalize their pension systems. In a 2012 study Renaissance Capital projected that pension funds in sub-Saharan Africa’s six largest markets will balloon to $622 billion by 2020 — an estimate the firm’s global chief economist, Charles Robertson, calls conservative. RenCap, a Moscow-based emerging-markets specialist with offices in Johannesburg, Lagos and Nairobi, estimates that total assets will swell to $7.3 trillion by 2050.

该行业上行潜力的原因显而易见。国际货币基金组织预测，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的经济产出今年将增长5.4%，2015年将增长5.5%，在世界主要地区中仅落后于亚洲发展中国家。尽管现在有一小部分人享有养老金，但这一数字似乎注定会迅速增长。根据国际劳工组织的数据，撒哈拉以南非洲地区被称为“经济活跃”的人口中，只有10%的人被强制养老金计划覆盖，而北非地区这一比例接近80%。

传统上，除了南非及其少数邻国外，政府社会保障制度在所有国家都垄断了养恤金管理和管理。这些系统覆盖了一个小范围的政府雇员和大型公司的工人。在外面工作的工人绝大多数是在农业和非正规经济部门工作的(一项劳工调查显示，即使在南非，2009年，农业劳动力中也有不到15%的人有任何养老金。）亚慱体育app怎么下载

Lately, a growing number of countries have embraced pension reform. In addition to widening mandatory coverage and instituting voluntary contributions, countries have been opening their systems to competition from private pension funds. Some of the results have been impressive.

Although statistics on African pension funds are hard to come by, 27four, a South African investment manager, estimated last year that the industry’s assets grew at an average rate of 10 percent a year from 2007 to 2012.

2001年，博茨瓦纳从固定福利制度转变为固定缴款计划，扩大了对更多劳动人口的覆盖范围，并向私人竞争开放了市场。如今，博茨瓦纳有大约100家养老基金在这个人口只有200万的国家争相创业。10只基金主导着市场，其规模和成熟度都有所增长。”竞争环境提高了行业的专业性，”Afena Capital Botswana的首席投资官Alphonse Ndzinge说，Afena Capital Botswana为该国的一些养老基金管理资金。根据博茨瓦纳银行的数据，这些基金在2012年的总资产约为60亿美元，占GDP的42%。在撒哈拉以南非洲国家中，只有纳米比亚和南非的比例更高。

迄今为止，非洲养老金改革在积累资本方面比部署资本方面更为成功，这就解释了为什么像Helios和LeapFrog这样的公司看到了该行业如此巨大的潜力。

In most markets the default investment remains domestic Treasury bills and government bonds. In Nigeria, for example, about 80 percent of pension funds go into bonds. Most governments encourage that asset class; many demand it. They consider public pensions a major source of debt financing and, by extension, a vehicle for financing favored development projects. “In a lot of countries, pension reform represents a threat to the government,” says Kofi Fynn, who heads Ghana’s Petra Trust.

非洲投资者集团的Danso，为非洲和西方养老基金提供咨询，也同样如此。”许多监管瓶颈阻碍了养老基金进入经济增长的基础领域。”。例如，尼日利亚长期存在基础设施赤字，据一些估计，每年要花费150亿美元来填补。然而，丹索指出，“在（养老基金资产）250亿美元中，由于监管限制，基础设施投资不到100万美元。”

Regulations aren’t the only factor limiting investment decisions. Shallow capital markets also hobble pension fund managers. Ghana is a case in point. Legislation in 2008 opened up pension funds to voluntary contributions and private trustee management, although implementation of the reforms didn’t begin until 2010. Today the country has 11 active pension funds, three of them owned by South African concerns, Fynn says. Collectively, the funds manage nearly $500 million in assets. “There are exceptionally favorable tailwinds,” says Doug Lacey, a partner with Mauritius-based LeapFrog.

The Ghana Stock Exchange lists just 37 companies, only 12 of which have a market cap of more than $100 million. The market’s total capitalization amounted to $3.9 billion at the end of last year, or roughly 10 percent of GDP. Ghanaian pension funds can invest a maximum of 10 percent of their assets in equities, but even that modest allocation can have a big impact on a thin local market. Last year the GSE Composite Index surged 78.81 percent. “Almost all of that was driven by pension funds,” explains Petra’s Fynn, who became frustrated by the limitations of the market and curtailed his purchases of equities. “It didn’t make sense for a lot of fund managers to chase the same stocks,” he says.

尽管步伐不平衡，但欧洲大陆各国都在放宽对养老基金的限制，基金也开始改变投资组合，以减少对固定收入的依赖。投资策略和资产类别不会一蹴而就，即使在最具改革意识的国家也是如此。现在还很早，就连南非在某些投资领域也遇到了一些坎坷，比如私募股权投资。

然而，人们越来越意识到，养老基金投资将大幅扩大，为非洲股市、公共和私人股提供了巨大的推动。高管表示，随着改革扩大投资选择范围，年轻一代专业基金经理推动行业向前发展，多元化步伐将加快。

“故事正在改变，”丹索说你听到了许多非洲资本中更为复杂的投资方言，“经济规划者和养老基金经理都是如此”。但他赶紧补充说，激进的投资变化“不必一夜之间发生——或许不需要这样做可能更好。”

Petra’s Fynn, 42, represents this new generation of fund managers. After earning bachelor’s and master’s degrees in engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an MBA from Harvard Business School, he joined Boston-based Wellington Management Co., where he became associate partner. In 2008 the Ghanaian native found himself at a crossroads, feeling he needed to choose professionally whether to remain in the U.S. or return to Africa. “Whatever decision I made, I knew it would last for ten years or so,” Fynn explains. He decided to go back to Africa, initially taking a job as COO of Oceanic Capital Co., the investment bank subsidiary of Oceanic Bank International, a Nigerian lender later acquired by Ecobank. In that position he advised Oceanic Bank on entering the Nigerian pension fund market as a custodian.

In late 2009, after hearing about the changes in Ghana’s pension fund regulations, he decided to link up with another Ghanaian MIT grad, Chris Hammond, then CFO of a regional airline, Aero Contractors Co. of Nigeria. The two founded Petra in March 2011.

Petra now estimates it has about 20 percent of Ghana’s private pension fund assets, or roughly $100 million. The prospects for growth appear bright. Ghanaian regulations allow employees to make tax-free contributions to pension funds of as much as 35 percent of their income. With an incentive like that, predicts LeapFrog’s Lacey, private pension fund assets will grow tenfold in two to three years. He calls Petra’s managers exceptional.

South Africa offers the biggest and most obvious model for asset allocation by African pension funds. With a history that stretches back more than a century, the country’s pension funds loom over the continent in terms of size, reach and influence. That’s also true of the investments the funds make.

由于南非在非洲大陆占据主导地位，公共投资公司（Public Investment Corp.）也在南非占据主导地位。PIC管理着该国最大的养老基金政府雇员养老基金（GEPF），以及包括南非失业保险基金在内的其他22个公共部门机构的基金。

PIC的资产基础接近1600亿美元的纽约州共同退休基金规模，对南非经济有着巨大的影响。它持有约翰内斯堡证券交易所约13%的市值。该基金经理也是中国商业地产的最大投资者，截至2013年3月，房地产资产总额为625亿南非兰特，这是最新的数据。

More recently, PIC is taking the lead in investing outside its own borders. The fund has allocated R120 billion for international investment, of which half — the equivalent of $5.6 billion — is earmarked for Africa. That represents one of the biggest capital allocations in Africa aside from multilateral lenders and global mining companies. The sum is “almost double the amount of private equity money in the entire continent,” Elias Masilela, who served as PIC’s CEO until May, told亚博赞助欧冠今年早些时候。赫利俄斯管理单一大st pan-African private equity fund, with $900 million raised in 2011. It is currently raising money for a new fund, which it hopes will exceed $1 billion.

到目前为止,图片已经宣布四大直接投资ments that total more than $1 billion. In addition to its holding in Ecobank, in 2012 the fund paid R2.4 billion (then worth $275 million) for a majority stake in Tanzania’s Tanga Cement Co. Last year PIC invested $289 million in Dangote Cement, the largest listed company in Nigeria.

最新也是最具争议的跨境投资发生在今年2月，当时PIC斥资2.7亿美元收购了位于休斯顿的CAMAC Energy公司30%的股权，该公司在尼日利亚、冈比亚和肯尼亚勘探石油和天然气。在协议签署时，尼日利亚商人卡斯·拉瓦尔（Kase Lawal）持有的多数股权CAMAC的价值仅为1.5亿美元，目前仍处于亏损状态。这笔交易取决于在约翰内斯堡证券交易所上市。

5月下旬，PIC宣布玛西莱拉辞职，立即生效。没有给出任何理由，当地媒体猜测，从中资委投资到内阁改组，到马西莱拉与基金政治关联的首席信息官丹尼尔·马季拉之间正在进行的权力斗争，一切都在猜测。基金首席财务官马舍波·莫尔被任命为代理首席执行官。

PIC has declined to comment on the management change. Masilela and Matjila didn’t respond to requests for comment.

尽管辞职的原因仍不清楚，但业内高管认为，这些变化不会改变石化的国际多元化战略。他们指出，跨国直接投资的决定反映了GEPF和南非政府的优先事项，正如它反映了PIC的优先事项一样。南非总统祖马（Jacob Zuma）和其他高级官员一再表示，他们希望看到南非成为整个非洲大陆投资活动的中心。

“埃利亚斯的离开可能会改变一点执行情况，但我认为这根本不会改变投资决策，”开普敦Inspired Evolution investment Management的负责人Sandile Sokhela说一般来说，南非的投资者都会到国外投资，所以PIC的（非洲）投资一点也不奇怪。”

其他南非养老基金有可能follow PIC’s lead in investing abroad, according to Sokhela and other money managers. “PIC now has a mandate,” says Walé Adeosun, founding partner and chief investment officer at Kuramo Capital Management, a New York–based fund of funds firm that focuses on Africa. “There are other African pension funds that are looking, and eventually we will have something similar to what PIC is doing.”

根据南非2011年修订的《养老基金法》，任何基金的资产中，有多达25%可以投资于海外，总共有10%可以分配给私人股本。这些限制不适用于GEPF，因为财政部监管该基金并拥有最终决定权，但法律可作为参考点。

In an interview shortly before he resigned, Masilela, 50, explained the fund’s international strategy. In Europe and North America, PIC invests in equity indexes — which represent 3 percent of the firm’s assets — using BlackRock as its manager. Masilela said PIC intends to search for other managers as it grows its holdings. The fund manager will also consider direct unlisted investments in the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

According to Masilela, PIC has invested or agreed to invest about R30 billion, or half its nondomestic African allocation, on the continent. The fund has a three- to five-year timetable for deploying the rest of that allocation, he said. “If we are able to invest all these funds within three years, we can go back to the Government Employees Pension Fund and ask for a top-up,” he said. “It’s going to be a function of how quickly we find the deals and how quickly we execute.”

PIC believes that by taking a leadership role in branching beyond South Africa, it can demonstrate the benefits of investing across Africa to other private sector投资者as well aspension fundsin South Africa — a process Masilela called a “crowding in” of capital.

Money managers across the continent expect private equity to play a significant role in pension fund investments, either as advisers or — more likely outside South Africa — as general partners. Private equity “will provide the comfort level [pension funds] require,” Adeosun says.

萨特合作伙伴艾哈迈德说，在尼日利亚pension fundsare growing massively, and theequitiesmarket won’t be able to absorb that kind of money,” so funds will increasingly turn to unlisted investments. But he contends that rather than investing directly, “pension fund managers are going to go through the route of limited partners, investing in a lot of private equity funds.”

Botswana provides the most liberal regime, allowingpension funds将其资产的70%投资到海外。大多数基金利用这种自由投资于全球股票和债券的组合。因为地方股市和债券市场缺乏深度、私募股权、基础设施等alternative assetscan provide vehicles for domestic investment and will be a “big focus for the country as the industry develops,” asserts Afena Capital’s Ndzinge. “There is going to be a massive pool of capital,” he says. “Naturally, we would like to keep it at home.”

非洲’s fast-growingsovereign wealth funds将领导和指导pension funds随着它们的扩张，基金经理预测。

Ibrahim Sagna is managing partner of Seychelles-based investment holding company Century Capital Holdings and a senior adviser to the Rwandan government. He cites as noteworthy two recent investments by the Gabon Strategic Investment Fund, a sovereign wealth fund with about $1 billion in assets. In mid-May the Central Africa Growth Sicar fund, through its manager, Emerging Capital Partners, announced it had sold its minority stake in Oragroup, a regional bank backed by ECP, to the Gabon fund. Terms weren’t disclosed. One day later GSIF said it was investing in IHS Towers, a private-equity-backed Nigerian provider of mobile telecommunications infrastructure. Again the price and size of the stake weren’t disclosed.

“这只是开始，”萨尼亚说如果（非洲）主权财富基金投资于非洲公司，那将使我们离另一家公司更近一步pension fundsfollowing PIC’s example and becoming active.”

In turn, Sagna and others believe, a growing African pension fund industry will spur Western pension funds to make investments in Africa. “If pension funds on the continent invest in the continent, they will act as a catalyst for investments from global pension funds,” says Africa Investor Group’s Danso.

在加纳的佩特拉信托基金，Fynn说pension fundsare at an inflection point. In two years, he predicts, there will be “significant product innovation.” Over time, he continues, Ghana’s pension funds will resemble those of South Africa. “We have an opportunity to make a real difference,” he says. • •