每日议程：澳大利亚利率决策，ADM，Groupon，Walt Disney收益

Dancing between volatility and earnings.While investors remain uneasy after a bout of挥发性in U.S. equities last week, for the most part, this quarter’s earnings releases have been very positive. Yesterday’s release fromAmerican International Group这是一个有点强劲的盈利增长，超过抵消了由美国2008年 - 09年金融危机困境的9.6亿美元的索赔造成的9.6亿美元的索赔造成的任何负面投资者情绪。收益季节也很善良日本大帽并主要是欧洲股票。随着许多市场策略师在当前估值时敦促谨慎，这些上行惊喜的净影响是泥泞的水，用于夏季和度假季节的决定作出决策 - 在视线之内。

率决定下降。澳大利亚的储备银行将基准现金率目标保持不变，为2.5％。伴随的声明表明，银行政策制定者将通货膨胀视为令人难以达到的令人威胁，因为澳大利亚的强劲对经济的一些细分来说。单独，澳大利亚未来的基金，国家主权投资车辆, announced a fiscal year-end performance of 13.9 percent, bringing the fund’s total assets above $100 billion in Australian dollar terms (1A$=$0.93).

盈利季节隆起巡航控制。美国大型股equities reporting today include Archer Daniels Midland, Groupon and Walt Disney. Twenty-First Century Fox’s quarterly call will be of special interest to investors as the company’s executives are expected to lay out its case for merging with Time Warner in an $80 billion transaction. This morning in Tokyo, Toyota Motor’s second-quarter earnings beat consensus forecasts, with a 4.4 percent increase, and the world's largest car maker guided expectations for North American sales higher for the next three quarters.

美国服务部门活动。In the U.S., services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from the Institute for Supply Management, scheduled for release today, is expected to improve for July. The labor subindex will be a particular focus for economists, as service-industry companies remain the nation’s largest employers. Separately, New York–based financial data provider Markit will also release July U.S. nonmanufacturing PMI today, with forecasts for a flat reading on the month.

Technicians urge caution for U.S. stocks.In a research note sent yesterday, John Kosar, director of research at Schaumburg, Illinois–based financial information services provider Asbury Research, wrote that despite a modest rebound, U.S. equity markets remain vulnerable to a deeper decline: “The U.S. broad market failed to resume its advance over the past month and instead collapsed at the end of last week, which indicates that a pullback/correction is underway. This negative near-term bias is supported by contractingETF资产流动，扩大企业债券传播和升高的波动性。“除了价格走势之外，还应注意到技术分析师之间的技术分析师，以获得高度认识的基本和宏观经济因素。

Scottish secession decision looms.Brian Hillard，Chief U.K.SociétéGénérale的经济学家昨天发布了一份报告，就潜在的影响Scottish referendum, scheduled for September 18. Hillard concludes that there are still many unknowns, including how much of the national debt would be assumed by the breakaway state and whether it could enter the European Union without creating a negative precedent for future separatist actions. Separately, Société Générale’s currency research department estimated a 3 to 5 percent decline for the U.K. pound versus primary currencies in the event Scotland votes for succession.

投资组合视角：没有任何改变。那为什么投资者害怕？—Neal Berger，Eagle的观点资本管理

At least compared to much of the past several months, July 31 was a rare day, indeed. TheVIX index, a measure of U.S. equity market volatility, spiked to 16.95 — a 27 percent one-day gain, with the index closing near year-to-date highs. While many market watchers have differing opinions as to what drove this sudden change, I believe it is a clear signal that U.S. equity investors are keenly on guard for a steep market correction.

标准普尔500指数在超过1000天内的校正率超过10％。这标志着自1928年以来的第五最长的伸展，没有修正标准普尔500指数的经历。这种低波动性和扩大价格的延长条纹在突然，严重和大幅下滑的情况下具有讽刺意味的担忧。然而，与漫长的胜利连胜后的运动队不同，许多投资者将直接将可能更正的大小直接等同于牛市之前的比例，基于其1987年的集体记忆，2001等。没有人想留在一轮音乐椅的尽头。

Nothing substantial changed last week. Despite the global geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and东欧，没有小费点。美国联邦储备在明确的课程中，以逐步逐渐达到月度债券购买，同时将利率低于此后延长的时间。

Other volatility spikes during 2014 have all proven to be false alarms and good selling opportunities for those who are in the business of selling options opportunistically. On February 3, the VIX closed at 21.44, only to fall back to the mid-13 range just two weeks later. We’ve had many head fakes so far this year — which I believe is indicative of a market that is on high alert for any signs of a correction.

As I was writing this, the VIX has come off 2 percent true to recent form. While nobody knows if or when the big one will strike, as a betting man, I feel it would be arrogant of me to speculate that this spike in volatility is the start of a larger market downturn. That said, experience has taught me that markets generally correct when nobody is expecting it — and, in fact, investors find excuses even to deny the market correction that is happening before their eyes. In my opinion, this does not seem to be the case today — ironically because there is too much thoughtfulness and fear among investors.

尼尔伯杰is the founder and president of New York–based hedge fund firmEagle’s View Capital Management.