Daily Agenda: PMI Data Offers Macro Snapshots

With new monthly purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data released in several countries today comes a new round of macro temperature taking. The diagnosis: while China is going through controlled cooling and the U.S. is posting slow but study gains, Europe’s growth is sputtering and may prompt action on the part of the European Central Bank. In China, preliminary September HSBC data registered a stronger-than-consensus forecast of 50.5, moving further into positive territory on better than expected orders. The subindex for employment declined to 46.9 however, the lowest reading since 2009 and a signal for concern among economists tracking the ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy to a greater focus on internal demand. But there were no silver linings for Europe as industrial managers surveyed indicated a slowdown in September for the euro zone that at 52.3 was lower than forecasts driven by cooling factory activity in primary states including France and Germany. U.S. PMI for the industrial sector, due out this morning, is anticipated to improve marginally.

Draghi提供了发言。In his presentation before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs yesterday, ECB president Mario Draghi stated that the欧洲恢复显然会失去动力. The central bank head said, “ We stand ready to use additional unconventional instruments within our mandate” in the event that activity and inflation remain moribund, leaving the door open for further easing.

美国财政部崩溃了反转。昨天美国财政部宣布新收紧的监管tax inversions. These White House-initiate changes were a response to political pressures over a flight of companies from U.S. tax jurisdiction via offshore mergers and may directly impact announced, but still pending, deals including theMedtronic / Covidien.和Mylan/Abbott Laboratories mergers. The public response from private-sector lobby groups was profoundly negative.

More U.S. housing data on deck.July FHFA housing price data will be released this morning at 9 am U.S. Eastern time, with forecasts for a flat reading from June’s 0.4 percent increase. While the index saw a significant lift in aggregate in May, the year-over-year rate of change marked a sequential contraction.

Tesco announces new leadership.英国零售业巨头乐购announced the appointment of Alan Stewart to CFO, a leadership move months ahead of schedule, in the wake of the announcement yesterday ofaccounting issues that would require an earnings restatement. In a media statement Sir Richard Broadbent, chair of the firm’s board of directors, said that he would not step down willingly.

Portfolio Perspective: Still no Hard Landing in China—Karl Haeling, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg

这re now appears greater recognition of weakening economic trends in China and the government’s reluctance there to provide significant stimulus. Comments yesterday from China Finance minister Lou Jiwei, that the Chinese economy is not going to shift dramatic economic course because of weak numbers on one indicator, really were not new. Chinese officials and official media in Beijing have been saying this fairly consistently for a while. But many market participants were nonetheless hopeful that a big support package could still be coming. These hopes now appear to be fading.

除非我们在中国经济中看到一个艰难的着陆，否则各种技术和市场开放举措可能会使中国股票急剧下降。但是，商品市场的绝缘程度远远较小。许多商品价格已经大大下降，这表明美国其他许多其他地方的通胀压力降低了膨胀。我们现在看到商品的一个积极的是他们已经超卖了。这可能会更快地导致技术纠正而不是以后。

然而，最终需求正在削弱，近年来中国囤积了许多商品。因此，在中国开始减少其臃肿的库存，实际市场需求将在某些情况下更柔软。这Financial Timeseven speculated Monday that China is facing a “资产负债表经济衰退“在这种情况下，信贷条件降低率降低和流动性增加的效果。

One element of the cash injections from the People’s Bank of China involved the failure of Treasuries to rally more than they did given the bullish backdrop of China’s slowing economy and weakness in risk asset markets. There are various reasons for this. One is that with Japanese markets closed Tuesday, investor buying there is less likely immediately ahead, particularly asJapan首领进入其每年半年结束。其次，股市的卖出近年来一直被证明是良好的买入机会。因此，股票市场将在恐慌固定收入投资者中取得持久的弱点。债券市场还认识到商品的超卖本质，并将本周面临其供应压力。

Karl Haeling is head of strategic debt distribution atLandesbank Baden-Württtemberg's New York office.