Market Corrections: An October Fright

1929年10月。1987年10月。2008年10月。2014年10月？

Mark Twain wrote that October was a “peculiarly dangerous month to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” Wise words, man.

本周早些时候我在会议上在多伦多。在房间的30多个加巨人中，重复了一个常见的问题：“何时是击中的大规模？”目前，公平股市处于高位，而利率为30年低点。中央银行宣誓就掀起了他们的量化宽松习惯，并升温即将到来。在凭借免费的罚金生活后，大多数投资者都意识到是时候面对音乐了。大问题是什么时候。纠正时间的不确定性明显慌乱的投资者。

Investors don’t like this kind of uncertainty. Unlike risk, uncertainty is, by definition, immeasurable. It’s the “unknown unknown,” as opposed to a “known unknown.” The latter, a risk, can usually be ascribed a probability and then priced. Uncertainty is not something you can price — though many investors have tried to manage it through tail-risk hedging. And because capital tends to flee uncertain environments, governments and companies try to minimize the perception of uncertainty through guarantees, insurance and special rights.

无论如何，在会议结束时，我的脑海有一个明确的问题：投资者处理不确定性的最佳方式是什么？是否尝试完全通过广泛和昂贵的套期保值或保险将其全部删除？也许。或者是通过开发强大的投资组织最好的管理？绝对。

我认为投资者担心不确定性的原因是我们的投资组织不达到动态和挥发性市场管理资产的工作。许多机构投亚博赞助欧冠资者遭受了继承治理结构的一种遗产成本。他们的资金根本不是为今天的复杂世界设计的 - 也就是说，set it and forget it. In addition, the risk tools and models appear unable to adequately identify financial vulnerabilities, let alone show how shocks propagate. Finally, a layer of financial abstraction also sits between investors and their assets, which manifests in the form of financial products and services. Relationships between investors and corporations have been replaced by relationships between investors and products.

简而言之，许多投资者觉得他们患病了，可以管理和理解动态和不可预测的市场。因此，他们对不确定性的恐惧并不是害怕在市场下来的东西。这是他们的组织如何回应接下来的内容。

As such, some view the investment climate as one of the most challenging in generations; one made even more difficult by the large pools of capital scouring the earth for assets.

But not me. For millennia, investors have found creative ways to deal with uncertainty. All the way back to Roman times and thenauticum foenus, or “sea loan,” investors have been overcoming unpredictable environments to achieve objectives. The key then, as it is now, was to develop organizational integrity to motivate and equip all parties to succeed. It’s with this idea in mind that I wanted to provide some of my thinking on how long-term investors can best prepare themselves and their organizations for the inevitable opportunities in uncertain times. Here we go:

•了解您的基金：处理不确定性要求投资者对自己的运营和特点明确。它似乎很明显，但是你会感到惊讶，有多少组织不知道他们所采取的风险，他们支付的费用，甚至是他们正在制作的赌注。然后，为不确定性做准备的第一步是做出对强度和劣势的审计。这个想法是将所有组织能力的所有组织能力纳入某种治理预算，以便与其匹配风险预算。并且，当完成后，长期投资者可以捕获结构阿尔法任何其他人都没有。

• Know Thy Portfolio:Next, the investor should do an in-depth analysis of its portfolio so it can truly know what it owns. It’s important to avoid thinking in terms of markets and stocks, but instead to focus on companies and their cash flows. You need to be able to assess how underlying companies will handle uncertainties. Investors have to know where their portfolio is today to have any clue on where they should take it tomorrow. In order to have this perspective — which I attribute to really professional institutions — investment firms need a strong internal data infrastructure.

•分阶段条目：开发不确定时间的投资组合通常意味着将投资组合定位在负面和正环境中的最大值最大化。管理上行相对容易。但它是肮脏的工作，最大化下行的价值。经常功能失调的团队需要与毛茸茸的资产分开。有趣的是，研究表明，投资者可以做的单一最好的事情来保护缺点是延迟完成交易。投资投资提供了相当大的期权价值。如果您今天进行投资，您将失去明天投资同一项目的机会。这里的想法是使用真实的选择理论来缓解不确定性随着时间的推移。

•计划和准备：有下行保护是很好的，但良好的投资者也将不得不快速行事。虽然我喜欢在达成款项最大化期权价值的情况下赚钱的想法，但这样做并不一定在不确定的环境中没有后果。通过坐在栅栏上悬挂在选项值的投资者可能无法意识到股权的实际价值取决于信号。需要发送到市场的信号，是演示资产是否仍然可征的。换句话说，它可能是你的责任发送那个信号and be the first to invest. This, in turn, means preparing for uncertain environments by developing the ability to move tactically. Success here, then, is about flexibility and durability in an uncertain environment, which means preparing an organization to move. This may require adopting innovative risk strategies, such as基于代理的风险模型或者它可能意味着developing a detailed understanding of the needs of a portfolio company or counterparty. It may also mean long sessions educating investor boards.

• Know Thy Self:What happens when you get all of these factors humming in unison? Do you end up with a rational actor in an irrational environment? No, you don’t. You wouldn’t want that, as markets can stay irrational for longer than people can stay rational. When navigating complexity and volatility, there are fateful decisions that demand fast responses. Research shows that trust, intuition and even emotion are strong enough forces to manage through uncertainty and, when combined, to mobilize experience-based knowledge in an effective and timely manner. This is similar to some of theedge work我过去讨论的概念。某些名人的e have an inherent ability to respond to dangerous and challenging situations with little time. The whole point of being ready for uncertain environments is that you don’t need a script for what to do. You’ve got the inputs so dialed in to make the right investment decision that you can let the organization do its thing. Note here as well that building internal expertise means allowing internal teams to make mistakes; that’s part of investing. As such, the investor has to have an internal culture that is not punitive.

Warren Buffett已被引用如此，“不确定性实际上是长期价值的买方的朋友。”我同意。在合适的组织买入和对准方面，长期投资者可以使用不确定性来产生高回报。所以迫在眉睫的矫正是不是要恐惧的东西。它可以作为一个精彩的买入机会。