J.P.摩根在美国股票研究中投票1号

The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to complete its third round of quantitative easing this month, prompting many market participants to wonder if another rout is in the offing. Following the wind-down of the first QE program, in March 2010, the S&P 500 Index tumbled 9 percent; when the second iteration ended, in June 2011, shares fell nearly 12 percent. Directors of equity research at some of the most prominent U.S. brokerages believe, however, that this time will be different.

“与QE1和QE2不同，QE3没有突然结束，但在十个月的过程中相当逐渐减少，”笔记尼古拉斯罗萨托，谁在可能取代了Noelle Grainger在J.P. Morgan的北美股权研究负责人。（格劳恩晋升为全球股权研究总监。）这种方法旨在向投资者安抚，中央银行只能在债券购买业务中作为美国经济的改进。“似乎这对信心有着预期的影响，因为这种延长的逐渐变锥度导致资产价格有利响应。我们的策略师看不到原因，为什么不会继续逐步逐步的一步。“

Brett Hodess, director of Americas equity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, shares a similar view. “While a pullback on the end of tapering is likely, the bearish sentiment, high cash balances of fund managers and the well-telegraphed end of QE3 — which is at least partly discounted in stocks — would likely limit any ‘taper tantrum’ to the 5 percent or less range,” he believes. “In addition, we had external shocks around the time of the first two QE policy shifts, such as the euro zone crisis and the fiscal brinkmanship moments in Washington, which contributed to those drops.”

这次应该有帮助，同意更好的宏观经济环境David Adelman.，9月份，谁在摩根斯坦利的美洲股权研究主任取代了Stephen Penwell。（Penwell现在监督公司的北美股票选择委员会。）“QE1和QE2末尾的放缓也伴有美国经济中的软斑。因此，难以提取随后的大部分弱点是由于较低的容纳政策以及增长前景较慢，“阿德尔曼观察。“我们今天一般保持乐观，关于美国经济，因此没有预期逐渐纠正资产购买的逐渐变化。”

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Still, investor anxiety is understandable, given not only the history of the bond-buying programs but also contradictory signals about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery. Late last month, for instance, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its second-quarter real gross domestic growth estimate from 4.2 percent to 4.6 percent, tying the postrecession high set in the final three months of 2012, while just one month earlier job growth was slower than it had been all year.

许多基金经理将要求出售申请人，以帮助解释后化世界中会出现的迹象，以及分析师被认为是最有洞察力的公司是J.P. Morgan，顶部亚博赞助欧冠’s All-America Research Team for a fifth year running. Its analysts earn a spot in 42 sectors, five fewer than last year and just one more than the outfit that repeats in second place, BofA Merrill, whose team position total isunchanged from 2013。然而，超越这些顶线的结果，并且更广泛的差异出现。近一半的J.P.摩根排名分析师和团队在其各自的类别中捕获了第一名，而第2件公司只有六个。BOFA Merrill的总计包括21个润路者职位，而不是九个为获胜经纪人。事实上，当为每个第一组织的评级分配给每个第一组织者，3个给每个第二个组织者，依据，J.P.摩根宣称加权总共123个，远在Bofa Merrill的80前面。（参见“Weighting the Results“。）

点击下面查看Infographic突出2014年全美研究团队调查结果的结果。

总共第三和第四位返回摩根士丹利和巴克莱，分别为30和28个斑点;这些总数反映了每个公司的三个职位的损失。ISI集团火箭从十分之一到第五次，在增加六个六元左右，包括九个部门的表演 - 除J.P. MORGAN之外的任何其他公司之外都是多于任何其他公司。在八月，ISI agreed to be acquired by Evercore Partners是一家位于纽约的投资银行咨询公司。

这些结果反映了超过3,600人的意见，以1,017家公司统计管理美国股票估计为10.9万亿美元。周围页面上的图像突出了一些研究人员在其覆盖区域中投票1号。

发送混合信号的行业中是住宅建筑。7月份飙升11.1％后，住房开展暂缓超过14％。尽管如此，全国家庭建设者协会/威尔斯法尔戈建设者的情绪指数在8月份缺乏第四次每月收益，并于8月份达到七个月高。

“恢复现在依赖于工作和依赖，”isi'sStephen East那who vaults from runner-up to first place for the first time in Homebuilders & Building Products, unseating longtime sector champion Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates. “In 2012 and 2013 it was more about low rates and affordability. Much of the affordability buying has occurred, and we are now back to traditional drivers of housing — primarily jobs and household formations,” or the ways in which individuals band together to share accommodations. “On average, two jobs created generates one household formation,” the St. Louis–based analyst continues. “We believe the recovery will be much more consistent if the economy can generate 200,000 to 250,000 jobs per month.”

劳工处据劳动部门，今年七月，今年七月截至7月，截至7月份的工作增长平均为142,000人。

“另一个问题是信用可用性 - 或缺乏，”东说。“特别是首次买家通过过度严格的信用标准遭受了艰难的抨击，防止了许多人购买。标准缓解了一点但仍然远远超过历史规范。直到银行更广泛地贷款，住房市场将继续挣扎。“

Even so, the analyst is upbeat. “If we generate 200,000-plus jobs a month, as ISI’s economists believe we will, then the new-home market will accelerate its growth in 2015,” he says. “In that scenario we believe both homebuilders and building-products companies will outperform.”

Also poised to best the broad market in the year ahead are many software names, according to BofA Merrill’sKasthuri Rangan谁从第二名上升到了扇区阵容上的第一个外观。“这是一部分市场，因为投资者寻求大型帽子的安全和流动性，”基于旧金山的分析师表示，这是一部分被忽视的 - 被忽视了。““但随着人们开始意识到利率不会高得多，当人们因其对增长投资的热爱而点燃的时候，我们就可以设定了一段时间。”

To fuel their expansion, however, many companies will have to reorganize their operations, he adds. “They’re going to have to go for a cloud-based business model, which is far stickier with the customer,” Rangan explains. “Cloud computing is a tiny segment of the [information technology] landscape — it’s only 3 percent of all IT spending — and we think this number is going to grow dramatically.” Many software providers have already begun the necessary transformation, he adds. The analyst’s current recommendations include two San Francisco–based outfits —salesforce.com.，客户关系管理软件和Splunk的开发人员，它使搜索和分析机器生成的大数据以及VMware，这是总部位于附近Palo Alto的虚拟化软件提供商。

rangan的同事道格拉斯leggate.也进步最后一级阶梯索赔部门阴极射线示波器wn for the first time, in Integrated Oil. (He also secures a runner-up spot in Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.) Many investors are well aware of the boom in shale oil production in the U.S., but opinions differ as to whether its current growth trajectory is sustainable. Leggate, who is headquartered in Houston, believes it is.

“It’s been remarkable, and at least based on the forecasts for industry activity, we expect the pace of development will continue to rise,” he says. “The smaller E&P companies really led the growth of the past five years. Larger companies, with significant legacy acreage, are only just getting started — and the prospects for another step-up in production that can sustain growth through the end of the decade are in place.”

最大化恢复是行业正在努力解决的关键问题。“恢复率仍远低于10％的油，”leggate说。“我们认为，随着行业优化发展计划，增长的步伐仍然可以加速。美国已经是世界上最大的石油生产国。在我们看来，如果监管和油价环境允许，生产可以从这里合理地增加50％。“

The analyst currently favors “asset-rich E&Ps with strong balance sheets and execution capabilities to bring forward value through growth,” he says. Hess Corp. of New York and Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. are two of his preferred picks. “We adopted a more cautious stance on the refining sector earlier this year,” Leggate adds. “Until we get some clarity on future U.S. oil export policy, our view is this sector will remain challenged.”

Regulatory concerns are also creating headwinds for big banks, according to约翰麦当劳桑福德C.伯尔尼斯坦＆Co.上个月美国美联储宣布计划在全国最大的金融服务提供商上施加附加费，高于巴塞尔三世的金额。尚未确定额外资本的水平。

“美联储正在发送一条消息，即它希望美国银行变得越来越小，更简单，”麦当劳解释，他将第二名攀登到银行/大帽子。“它将对最大，最复杂的银行施加更高的资本费，以减少失败的可能性，并在失败时减少后果。”

These fees will likely result in lower return on equity for the institutions, thus leading to lower valuations for their stocks, he believes. “However, these negatives could be mitigated by the value that gets untrapped as banks downsize and by potential higher multiples afforded to bank stocks because they are viewed as safer and more predictable,” McDonald says.

His colleague约书亚斯特林，谁在该团队中的第二年仅在一年中的保险/非生物中的1位，这是对他覆盖范围内的一些公司的前景看涨。“我们认为美国国际集团也能够推动收益增长，”斯特林说，他们脱离波士顿。“自金融危机期间的死亡和重生以来，AIG有利于倾向于从庞大，历史上的纪念和历史持久的公司转变为现代，纪律和精简的承销商。”

The New York–based multiline insurer has invested in both talent and technology, he adds, and become better at assessing risk and settling claims. “Over time we expect the company to bring its operating margins in line with peers’, and as they compound book value and raise their ROE to double digits — they’re still only trading around 75 percent of book value — we see an opportunity for patient money to double or more,” Stirling predicts.

Another analyst who sees openings for investors to make money is Justin Lake. He captures first place in two sectors,Health Care Facilities和Managed Care那for a second consecutive year. “Health care facilities have outperformed the S&P by about 30 percent year to date,” the J.P. Morgan researcher reports. He believes the rally is sustainable. “We’re only in the second inning of implementation [of health care reform]. Second-quarter earnings were revised higher for just about all the hospitals, and I believe this earnings pattern will continue over the next six to 12 months. I’ve got buy ratings on all the hospitals I cover.”

One of the catalysts that will spur growth is Medicaid expansion. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, raised the income limit to 133 percent of the federal poverty level so that more people would qualify for coverage, but the Supreme Court ruled that states could not be forced to participate. “Only about half the states have expanded Medicaid as part of health care reform, but I think that’s destined to be 50 states over the next three to five years,” Lake says. “If you look back at the rollout of Medicaid, in 1965, only about half the states opted in at first. Over a three- to five-year period, we were pretty close to 50.”

美国人在所有国家发出了矛盾的信号about their belief in the economic recovery. Last month the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment surged to its highest level in more than a year, 84.6, but spending remains mostly flat.

“Restaurants have been battling the same paradox as the rest of retail — sluggish spending even as confidence and the overall economy improves,” attests Morgan Stanley’s约翰玻璃那who celebrates his fifth straight appearance atop the Restaurants sector roster. Such higher-end chains as Denver-based Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks Corp. of Seattle are doing well, he notes, “while the rest are still waiting for the recovery to begin. Expect continued price discounting as brands try to drive traffic.”

分析师肯定将该部门玻璃视为半满，所以说话。“我们对未来持乐观态度，”他说。“将逐渐恢复，有很多新的概念。快速休闲将继续增长。休闲用餐是，是最奇怪的挑战，但它远未死亡。该部分需要重组，具有反映当今挑战的现实的商业模式。“

The same can be said about many of the companies covered byTien-Tsin Huang谁在电脑服务的第二个地方度过了过去五年，而IT咨询，今年是第一次捕捉顶部点。“今年我的部门在2013年发布强劲表现后，我的部门在今年的市场表现不佳，”J.P.Morgan分析师肯定。“倍数保持健康，但我们看到较少的积极盈利惊喜，因为定价环境仍然静音和卷保持稳定。”

即便如此，黄在支付处理器上毫不糟糕地看涨。“签证和万事达卡面临各种增长逆风和不确定性，包括规定那foreign exchange和technology disruption fears, underpinned by a tepid global consumer recovery,” he explains. “We expect these headwinds to fade, as enough time has passed for both firms to adapt, introduce new services and reprice for value and growth.”

The market as a whole is adapting to a posttapering environment, believes BofA Merrill’s Hodess. “We are shifting from a Fed-stimulus and consumption-driven bull market to a more midcycle bull market,” he says. “With companies’ balance sheets and cash flows generally in great shape, and corporate spending way below normal, our take is that we are shifting to a capital-spending-driven market.”

The best may be yet to come, contends Morgan Stanley’s Adelman. “This may be the longest expansion ever — perhaps lasting until 2020,” he says. “Equity exposure in above normal percentages is prudent.” • •