The present economic environment is serving up an expanded set of concerns for Federal Reserve officials that may end up influencing policy in a manner that delays rate normalization. In fact, the recently releasedSeptember 2014 Federal Open Market Committee minutes描绘了一家央行，似乎不太愿意根据国内经济考虑率正式化汇率，因为评论提到了经济增长放缓 - 特别是欧洲 - 以及对FOMC的展望的风险强劲。当然，这些担忧是突出的，因为在全球化的经济中，金融市场和贸易互联可以导致国内逆风，如果我们的贸易伙伴的经济体缓慢，我们的出口部门在美元实力逐次变得较不竞争力。尽管如此，我们认为这些担忧是由美联储夸大的。
Whereas markets have seen volatility increase in recent weeks, culminating in the extreme market gyrations of October 15, the excessive focus of many investors, in addition to their growing fears over global growth and an abundance of geopolitical risks, is on news events that ultimately hold only minimal long-term influence. Clearly, the direction of policy change is important for understanding how markets evolve, but it too should not be taken as the sole determinant of economic and financial market prospects. Indeed, there are several favorable secular factors at play in the U.S. economy today that are likely to hold an outsize impact on growth prospects and market dynamics in the decade ahead. They include latent corporate capital expenditure, advances in technology, the能源革命，相对积极的人口统计数据和住房市场的稳定。此外，在我们看来，这些世俗经济尾风途中现在与允许美国的生长轨迹偏离欧洲的增长轨迹的循环恢复相结合，其中存在较少的世俗和周期性优势。
仔细检查美国的经济数据有助于说明这一点。在过去的一年里，几乎所有劳动力市场懈怠的措施都有意义地改善，除了八月的弱者非农工资罗兰印刷（历史上招聘的历史悠久），就业收益加速了健康水平。事实上，与事先三个月，六个月和12个月的平均薪酬汇率分别为224,000,245,000和220,000，目前的工作创造率率甚至比过去的经济扩张时期的典型速度更强劲。这并不奇怪，因为经济比许多人都愿意承认。事实上，美国真正的GDP在过去的四个季度上运行的3.6％，不包括2014年第一季度，影响异常严酷的冬季天气（见图）。此外，最新的真实GDP打印率为4.6％，我们期待第三季度达到3％左右 - 这是稳定的增长。尤其如此案例在过去十年的平均实际GDP增长中，这令人惊讶的低1.6％。
因此,我们在贝莱德继续认为那t maintaining monetary policy accommodation at so-called emergency levels appears both unnecessary and potentially disruptive to the proper functioning of financial markets. And although we still think that it is plausible that the Fed will begin raising policy rate levels by the end of the first quarter of 2015, which would be earlier than markets are anticipating, recent meeting minutes and policymaker comments appear to make a later lift-off increasingly likely. We are not convinced that domestic economic evidence warrants such a delay, however. Indeed, even broader measures of economic slack, such as the U-6 unemployment rate, have begun to improve at a more rapid pace in the past year. Additionally, we would point to the data from the Labor Department’s招聘人口和劳动营业额调查，这表明，八月底有近484万个职位开口，这一措施的最高水平超过十几年。
Finally, whereas some suggest that the Fed is waiting for the broad lack in wage increases to ease before returning to a more normal policy regime, even here some evidence displays improvement. Since the beginning of 2013, wage increases have turned sharply higher for the private industrial workers of some metropolitan regions (such as Dallas–Fort Worth and the San Francisco Bay Area area). Further, highly skilled and educated workers continue to see solid wage gains, so what is lost in the aggregation of data is that labor markets have become highly bifurcated (or fragmented) and that the average wage level has seemed stuck as many workers’ wages have merely kept pace with inflation. Corporate survey data also suggest that some improvement is likely on the way, and such a dynamic would imply to us that structural labor market factors are at play that are beyond monetary policy remedy.
我们认为，与美国相比，欧洲正在挣扎总体需求水平较弱，有利的经济催化剂和更多的负面含量更少 - 包括基本上不起作用的财政渠道。对经济弱点和极低通胀反应，欧洲央行总统马里奥·德拉希宣布计划通过一套资产购买方案扩大央行资产负债表，尽管迄今为止，这并未包括直接购买主权债务。因此，当前的货币政策住宿路径（正确地）基于两个地区的不同经济前景，这是一个分歧，因为我们在我们的Blackrock将涵盖我们的下一篇文章中，也是相对货币估值的反映。
The data clearly show that the U.S. is much further along, both in overall economic healing and in the monetary policy cycle, than is Europe, which has chronically lagged in its response to the financial crisis and ensuing recession. We think the fact that the euro zone is at risk of entering its third recession since 2008 is testimony to that fact. If one looks at U.S. and euro zone industrial production figures, the former has seen steadily improved gains since industrial production bottomed in 2009, and the U.S. has more than recovered its 2008 peak in that metric. Meanwhile, the euro zone saw its industrial production recovery off its 2009 bottom fail in 2011, and it has since declined even further. Moreover, key economic vital signs for Europe — purchasing managers’ index data, consumer price index data and capital investment data — have all recently turned down. And euro zone leverage levels and demographic characteristics are considerably less favorable when compared with those of the U.S.
This economic backdrop clearly holds implications for both U.S. dollar and euro valuations, but we do not think it places the U.S. recovery at risk. Therefore, Fed policymakers would do well to turn their attention to more immediate concerns, such as keeping the housing market recovery on track and ensuring that financial market conditions remain stable, rather than worrying about a modest slowing in global growth that is unlikely to derail the U.S. on its path of recovery.
董事总经理Rick Rieder是基本固定收入和美国的主要投资官员固定收入黑石在纽约。
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