As Ebola Fear Spreads, So Does the Risk of Economic Contagion

的spread of Ebola is a public health disaster for the West African countries at the heart of the crisis. As the human toll mounts and fears of contagion grow, Ebola poses a growing economic risk to West Africa and potentially to the global economy.

的tragic loss of life from the recent Ebola outbreak, with 4,447 deaths and another 8,900 people believed to be infected as of October 14, is proving devastating for local African economies. Productivity and output have declined in the three hardest-hit countries — Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea — as laborers fall ill, employers suspend business, farmers abandon their fields and governments temporarily close borders to interregional trade.

的International Monetary Fund last week slashed its growth forecast for the region. It now expects Sierra Leone to expand by 8 percent this year, down from 11 percent; Guinea by 2.5 percent, down from 5.9 percent; and Liberia by 2.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent. The economic cost for West Africa could hit $32.6 billion by the end of 2015, according to the World Bank, if the epidemic isn’t contained quickly.

Ecobank Transnational, a pan-African bank based in the West African country of Togo, began stress testing its portfolio last week to assess the potential impact of the epidemic, said CEO Albert Essien. His big worry: Some international companies have begun pulling skilled personnel out of the region, which could cause output to decline at mining and other resource operations that are critical for local economies. “The whole economy is grinding to a halt” in the three countries at the source of the outbreak, he said in an interview in Washington last week. “People are not going to the market. They are not shopping.”

这种经济挫折，因为它是世界上最贫穷的国家，几乎没有寄存在近80万亿的全球经济中的国家。然而埃博拉在对全球经济紧张的时期蔓延令人担忧。市场参与者将埃博拉引用只有一片负面背景新闻，在过去两周内有助于在金融市场抛售。10月15日，主要欧洲指标下跌约3％，标准差距500指数在拉力赛前在一点下跌超过3％。那天早上，新闻浮出水面让达拉斯的第二名护士在处理过的托马斯·埃里克邓肯后，达拉斯签约了埃博拉，他在利比里亚袭击了这种疾病，成为美国土壤中的第一个死亡的人。

在周四在华盛顿的聆讯中，若干国会代表批评疾病控制和预防疾病控制中心的负责人对护士感染，并呼吁措施限制爆发来源的国家。这种举动会发布经济传染的风险。根据学术研究的情况，2003年亚洲严重急性呼吸道综合征或SARS在亚洲令人沮丧的增长率下降约1个百分点，大部分损失令人沮丧地抑制了大约1个百分点的增长率，并在留下了大部分损失公司和政府施加旅行或贸易限制。CDC和世界卫生组织宣布了那一年的首次旅游顾问，强烈向受影响地区的非必要旅行促进了非必要的旅行;向中国的航班，据信患有疾病起源于2003年6月下降了45％。

“Fear is a powerful motivator,” says Laura Seay, assistant professor of government at Maine’s Colby College, who specializes in the study of African politics, development and post–conflict state reconstruction. “It’s hard to avoid economic damage from a crisis like a major Ebola outbreak.”

Moroccan authorities last week called for the postponement of the Africa Cup of Nations, the soccer tournament that the country is due to host in January, because of concerns about the possible spread of Ebola. Even companies that don’t conduct business in West Africa are questioning whether it’s safe to travel through major hub airports in Berlin, Paris and London, for instance, where connecting flights arrive from West Africa, says John Rose, COO of iJET International, a risk management consultant to the travel industry.

This year’s Ebola outbreak is the most devastating occurrence since the virus was discovered in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1976. Total deaths so far number more than all previous outbreaks combined, which averaged some 283 deaths each. The epidemic is doubling every three weeks, the WHO reports, and, if not contained, threatens to kindle 10,000 new cases per week by December. The epidemic is “unquestionably the most severe acute public health emergency in modern times” and has progressed into “a crisis for international peace and security,” Margaret Chan, the WHO’s director-general, said on October 13.

的outbreak has potentially crippling fiscal implications for the three states affected most directly. Tumbling economic activity and trade has driven down tax and tariff revenues while efforts to contain Ebola and treat victims have put pressure on government budgets. The World Bank anticipates short-term fiscal losses up to $120 million for Guinea, for example, by the end of 2014.

全球领导人对赤字进行良性的观点。国际货币基金组织总经理董事克里斯汀拉加德州克里斯汀拉加德在上周表示，即将遏制人民的治疗，以实际试图遏制疾病的预防措施，提高财政赤字是好的。IMF于9月下旬批准了几内亚，利比里亚和塞拉利昂的1.3亿美元;世界银行提供4亿美元帮助各国对抗疾病。美国已致力于该地区为该地区设立了4,000名士兵，并培训当地提供者，古巴答应派出450名医生和护士。

“恐惧的最佳解毒是一种有效的......和紧急的反应，”联合国秘书长班凯·凯月在华盛顿会议上关于埃博尔达危机的华盛顿危机，世界银行总统吉姆金吉姆基金队及其主席三个西非国家。“我们需要二零零的速度和资源调动。”

“There’s no question that the uptick in efforts to contain Ebola in the last few weeks constitutes progress, but it is probably not enough,” says Colby’s Seay.

的economic outlook for the majority of sub-Saharan African states remains positive despite the difficulties in Ebola-infected economies, says Antoinette Sayeh, director of the IMF’s African Department. The Fund expects sub-Saharan Africa to be the second-fastest-growing region in the world, behind emerging Asia, with growth of 5 percent this year and 5.75 percent in 2015.

尽管如此，埃博拉的影响在金融市场的一部分中是明显的。在9月下旬，可可期货飙升至9月下旬的互联网通知，自2011年以来的最高水平，在10月17日退回至3,118美元之前 - 仍在今年增长17％。由Cote D'Ivoire领导的西非生产70％的全球可可供应。某些制药公司的股票在创建埃博拉疫苗的进展中取得了脱落。基于加拿大的药物制造商Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corp.的股票代价，其有前途的TKM-Ebola用于治疗美国传教士Richard Sacra，自9月初以来飙升了13.4％，而北卡罗来纳州的竞争对手Chimerix，使用其实验药物治疗邓肯，在同一时期举行了43％。

Major international carriers such as Emirates, British Airways and Air France, as well as regional African players Gambia Bird, Togo’s Asky Airlines and Nigeria’s Arik Air, have suspended flights to the region in the past three months and have seen their share prices take a roller coaster ride. U.S. airline stocks were hit on October 15 after news came out that Amber Joy Vinson, one of the infected nurses, had taken a flight from Ohio to Texas the day before being diagnosed with Ebola. American Airlines Group’s shares tumbled 4.5 percent that day, United Continental Holdings dropped 6.88 percent, and Delta Air Lines fell 3 percent; all three stocks recovered those losses by the end of the week.

的African continent at large is not immune to economic disruption. Travelers are canceling East African safaris thousands of miles away from the Ebola epicenter. In August, Korean Air Lines Co. announced the suspension of flights to Nairobi as a precaution, though Kenya has not reported a single case of Ebola to date. “That’s the kind of knee-jerk reaction you get from people who don’t really understand the region and see it as one big lump,” explains Yvonne Mhango, sub-Saharan Africa economist at Renaissance Capital.

Most analysts believe the risks of wider economic contagion are limited for now. “We haven’t seen any generalized market impact,” says Marvin Barth, European head of FX strategy at Barclays.

文艺复兴时期的首都Mhango points out that Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone have tiny economies with few trade linkages to the wider world. “Through travel, tourism and trade — the three main channels of impact to economies — my impression is that the impact of Ebola today is very limited and that’s why we haven’t seen much impact on global financial markets,” she asserts.

Mhango’s biggest concern is the potential reversal of economic progress made by former conflict countries — Liberia and Sierra Leone in particular — since the beginning of the millennium. Both have made significant headway in fighting poverty and stabilizing their economies since their civil wars ended more than a decade ago, whereas Guinea has posted double-digit growth in recent years. Now these countries run the risk of rising poverty rates and depleted state coffers, she says, making it difficult for governments to maintain spending on education or to combat other diseases, like malaria.

“I don’t think we will see state failure or massive institutional collapse due to the Ebola epidemic, but there could definitely be political instability and even regime change in the medium to long run,” argues Colby’s Seay, who says it will take years to repair the economic and budgetary damage done by the outbreak. “That said, I also expect that donors, which already give large amounts of aid to Liberia and Sierra Leone, will commit additional resources to aid the governments with their budget shortfalls and other issues after the crisis is over,” she adds.

Neighboring countries such as Mali, Cote d’Ivoire and Guinea-Bissau run the greatest risk of an Ebola outbreak, experts say. The disease spreads through direct physical contact with bodily fluids, like blood and saliva, of an infected individual. Mhango suggests that laborers and travelers in affected countries where international flights are canceled may journey by road to neighboring countries to catch flights. Seay says seasonal cross-border migration associated with labor needs ups the risk. The region suffers from weak public health systems, making it especially hard to suppress any outbreak. That said, Ebola is more difficult to contract than diseases like malaria. “This epidemic has been out of control for six months now, and it hasn’t spread outside of Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea,” notes Seay.

进步在尼日利亚和塞内加尔是光明的。的two countries were quick to stamp out Ebola after the disease entered their borders in July and August, respectively. The WHO is expected to announce the end of the Ebola outbreak in Senegal on October 17 and in Nigeria on October 20, which would be the requisite 42 days — twice the virus’s incubation period — after the last reported incidence of the disease.

鉴于发达国家强大的公共卫生系统，大多数分析师也持乐观，卫生官员可以防止非洲以外的主要疫情。“我非常有信心，美国或其他国家在爆发区之外的埃博拉纳疫情，”海洋说。

然而，埃博拉的轨迹仍然非常不确定。世界从未处理过这种幅度的爆发，对地方政府和外国医疗工作者的不信任使得难以评估流行病的真正规模并使其进行控制。

If Ebola becomes a persistent threat, “it likely will have a persistent effect on global demand for travel and entertainment and will have a broader impact on global markets, as the potential for it to affect other economies will rise,” Barth says.

SARS从未成为任何地方的地方，它对全球供应链的影响是小而短暂的，巴特在10月8日的研究报告中解释。如果埃博拉曾经占据了大型全球综合经济，那么经济辐射可能是戏剧性的。报告称，“全球供应链中任何大型或重要经济中的任何大型或重要经济中的埃博拉等高死亡率疾病的持续爆发了埃博拉（Ebola）的持续爆发的影响明显更大。

Follow Georgie Hurst on Twitter at@ghurst_iimag..